Predicting the Biggest Steals of the 2015 NBA Draft Class
Steals are all about maximizing value.
It looks like the Denver Nuggets got a steal in Jusuf Nurkic, who was passed on 15 times in the 2014 draft (he was selected by the Chicago Bulls and traded on draft night). The Philadelphia 76ers might have found one in K.J. McDaniels, who was taken in last year's second round.
The following prospects are the guys who aren't expected to get taken in the lottery, whether it's due to age, lack of upside or an injury, yet should each have the chance to provide maximum value relative to where they're projected to go.
These are the guys bound to make some general managers seem savvy and even more look foolish for passing.
Honorable Mention: Chris McCullough, Syracuse, 6'10", PF, Freshman
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From Chris McCullough's perspective, the torn ACL he suffered Sunday was a big blow toward his 2015 stock. Obviously, he'll lose some suitors entering the draft six months removed from a severe injury with only 16 career games on his resume.
However, even if he returned to Syracuse, there's a chance he'd miss half of next season anyway. If he struggled upon returning, it could diminish his appeal even more, given he'd be a year older (21 years old by June 2016) without much to show through two seasons but a couple of flashes and a questionable knee.
Just like Spencer Dinwiddie did after tearing his ACL in January 2014, McCullough could declare this year and hope for an optimistic general manager to take a chance on his recovery and potential. Before going down, his size, athleticism and skill set appeared to fuel some pretty enticing upside.
At 6'10", he's a high-flyer and active defender with promising mid-range touch and tremendous instincts around the rim. As ESPN's Chad Ford points out, "He could be viewed as a value pick by teams drafting in the late first to early second round."
Whether he leaves this year or the next, it's tough to envision anyone reaching anymore. McCullough could essentially have "steal" written on his chest whenever he declares.
5. Ron Baker, Wichita State, 6'3", PG/SG, Junior
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With a ceiling that tops out at a role-player level, Ron Baker is destined for the late first or early second round of the draft. However, his chances of fulfilling that role-player potential seem fairly certain.
At 222 pounds, Baker is a strong guard with an NBA body, which helps make up for the inch or two he lacks in height. As long as he can hold his own physically, there's no reason why his core basketball strengths, which hold NBA glue-guy-type value, can't translate.
Whether you consider him a point or shooting guard doesn't matter. Off the bench, he can play either based on matchups. A lethal shooter and capable decision-maker who handles and protects the ball, think Kirk Hinrich when it comes to style of play and best-case comparisons.
Baker is shooting 38.8 percent from downtown on 2.4 threes made per game, and while he's used in a team-leading 24.4 percent of Wichita State's possessions, he's averaging just 1.2 turnovers. He projects as one of those mistake-free type of guards who knocks down shots, moves the ball and defends.
There isn't any upside here, but that's not what you're looking for 25-40 picks deep. Of all the fringe first-rounders, I have Baker as one of the better bets.
4. Jake Layman, Maryland, 6'9", SF, Junior
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Jake Layman has started building a strong NBA case that revolves around his versatility and role-playing attributes. As a 6'9" wing, he has the body and athleticism of Chandler Parsons, along with a good-looking outside stroke that's connected from downtown in 14 of Maryland's 18 games.
However, it's strides he's made to the rest of his repertoire that have propelled him into the conversation. He's converting inside the arc at a 59.2 percent clip, up from the 44.1 percent he shot on two-pointers as a sophomore. Layman ultimately looks stronger and more effective attacking and finishing, which has helped make it easier to envision him holding his own at the NBA level.
Even his rebounding percentage is significantly better, as he's pulling in 1.7 more boards while playing nearly three minutes fewer per game. With tremendous size for the position, a convincing jumper and a high basketball IQ, you can forget about his mediocre one-on-one skills. Layman projects as a floor-spacer, ball-mover and opportunistic slasher and driver.
We've seen steady, gradual improvement from Layman since his freshman year, and that's always a trend to bet on. It's still unclear if he leaves early, but with a shot at the first round, I'd imagine he'll take his chances.
3. Devin Booker, Kentucky, 6'6", SG, Freshman
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It's tough to say exactly where Devin Booker will get drafted, but as more of a one-dimensional scorer and average athlete for a wing, the potential reward tied to his outlook probably won't seem worthy of lottery consideration.
However, it should hold plenty of value from No. 15 to No. 30. There isn't a team out there that couldn't use another shooter off the bench. And there aren't many better than Booker, who's hit 17 of his last 22 three-point attempts and 31-of-61 on the season.
When his feet are set and that ball leaves his hands in one fluid motion—forget about it. At 6'6" with a good head on his shoulders and overall feel for the game, the one dimension Booker excels in seems pretty likely to carry over.
There are some, like CBS Sports' Doug Gottlieb, who even believe Booker is the second-best prospect on Kentucky. Personally, I wouldn't go that far, but Booker has undoubtedly emerged as an NBA option and probable asset down the road, even if it's as a specialist.
2. Delon Wright, Utah, 6'5", PG, Senior
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Between his age, the unproven jumper and that two-thirds of the league is already equipped with starting point guards, the odds are against anyone reaching on 22-year-old Delon Wright (23 in April). I'd like to imagine he'll fall into the lap of some lucky team drafting in the mid-to-late first round, where he can offer value as a versatile, defensive-minded reserve.
At 6'5", Wright has the physical tools and instincts to rattle ball-handlers at any level. He's one of the peskiest defenders in the country, with 120 steals in 49 college games (2.4 per contest) since joining Utah in 2013. Offensively, he doesn't project as the 15.3-point-per-game scorer he is in the Pac-12, but scoring won't be a priority for him at the NBA level.
Wright's ability to manage an offense and set the table for teammates, whether it's off the hesitation dribble or out of pick-and-rolls, is what teams that lack backcourt depth should value. He plays with excellent poise and pace, while his prowess as a finisher at the rim (65.9 percent, per Hoop-Math) only enhances his believability as an NBA fit.
Even if you're not into advanced stats, the fact that he leads the country in win shares, per Sports-Reference.com, highlights his impact at both ends of the floor. I'm not sure he'll ever be anything more than a backup, but landing a good one in the late first round translates to draft-night success.
1. Bobby Portis, Arkansas, 6'11", PF, Sophomore
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On paper, a lack of burst and explosiveness puts a cap on Bobby Portis' ceiling. He just doesn't give off those star-in-the-making vibes, while you could argue there are 10-12 guys who offer a bit more perceived NBA upside.
If Portis ends up getting taken outside the lottery, which looks like a good possibility, given the growing strength of the projected field, I wouldn't hesitate to call him the steal of 2015. Averaging 18 points and eight boards on 58.2 percent shooting, Portis has been a monster. At 6'11", 242 pounds with a 7'1.5" wingspan, he has the body to match one of the more polished offensive games of any big at the Division I level.
Portis has a natural, confident shooting stroke, particularly in the mid-range, where he can pick-and-pop, jab step and release or fall away over his shoulder. He also has the footwork and touch to create and make shots in the post, whether he's facing up or playing back to the basket.
In the half court, Portis is shooting 40.7 percent on two-point jumpers and 76.7 percent at the rim, per Hoop-Math. He's not the most dominant rebounder or shot-blocker, and that's unlikely to change, but Portis' physical tools and skill set should work just fine at the 4 on offense.
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