Ranking the Top Buy-Low, Sell-High 2015 NBA Trade Candidates
Perceived value and actual value often differ when discussing NBA trade candidates.
As Hassan Whiteside is proving with the Miami Heat, success in the Association is often as much about opportunity and fit as it is about talent. Sticking a square peg in a round hole often depreciates a player's trade value—see: Josh Smith and the Detroit Pistons—while certain coaches can bolster a player's standing in the league by emphasizing his strengths and minimizing his weaknesses.
Between now and the Feb. 19 trade deadline, general managers must suss out the true worth of the players they're targeting. If a certain trade candidate is struggling, is it worth gambling on his talent over his current production? Contrastingly, GMs must also survey their own rosters and gauge whether it's time to sell high on overachieving players before their trade value regresses to the mean.
Based on current production, potential ceiling and contract situation, the following 10 players rise to the top of all buy-low and sell-high NBA trade candidates.
5. Buy-Low: Terrence Jones, Houston Rockets
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After a promising sophomore season in 2013-14, Terrence Jones could be in danger of being "Wally Pipped."
Jones has missed all but four games this season due to a peroneal nerve contusion in his right leg, and in his place, Donatas Motiejunas has thrived. In his 32 starts this year, the Lithuanian big man is averaging 12.0 points on 52.0 percent shooting, 6.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks and 0.5 treys in just 29.7 minutes per game.
Additionally, in Jones' absence, the Rockets went dumpster diving and picked up Josh Smith with their biannual exception once the Detroit Pistons waived him in late December. Though Smith was an outright disaster as a starter for Houston, he's been a valuable piece off the bench, averaging 12.7 points on 46.2 percent shooting, 5.6 boards, 2.3 assists, 0.9 blocks, 0.6 steals and 0.5 triples in 23.9 minutes per game.
That means Jones, who is entering his final stages of rehab, per Rockets play-by-play announcer Craig Ackerman, could become intriguing trade bait once he returns. The Rockets, who are reportedly in the market for an upgrade at the point guard position, per Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher, could dangle Jones along with the New Orleans Pelicans' protected 2015 first-round pick owed to them.
"As an established, starting-caliber power forward who has one year left on his rookie deal, Jones is a pretty juicy piece to include [in a trade]—juicy enough to be the difference in an agreement being reached," Bleacher Report's Kelly Scaletta recently wrote. Jones' lengthy injury this year could depreciate his trade value somewhat, but he'd be a mighty intriguing buy-low piece for a potential contender.
Buy-Low Honorable Mentions: Thaddeus Young, Minnesota Timberwolves; Miles Plumlee, Phoenix Suns
5. Sell-High: Jarrett Jack, Brooklyn Nets
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The Brooklyn Nets' efforts to trade former All-Star point guard Deron Williams have yet to gain traction, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, which shouldn't exactly come as a surprise. They've been shopping D-Will for more than a month, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein and Ohm Youngmisuk, but his bloated contract, decreased production and lengthy injury history aren't exactly helping bolster his trade value.
Since the Nets are unlikely to find a team desperate enough to absorb the two years and $43.4 million remaining on Williams' contract after this season, they should instead consider moving their current starting point guard, Jarrett Jack. Since moving into the starting lineup on Dec. 21, Jack is averaging 15.2 points on 46.2 percent shooting, 6.1 assists, 3.7 rebounds and 1.2 steals per contest.
Though his 19.4 percent shooting from deep over that stretch won't help entice potential suitors, his per-game averages make him an ideal sell-high candidate for Brooklyn. Most teams around the league don't need a starting point guard, disqualifying Williams from legitimate trade talks, but backup combo guards on reasonable contracts are always in high demand.
According to ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard, Jack's name popped up in the three-way trade discussions among Brooklyn, the Charlotte Hornets and Oklahoma City Thunder, but nothing came to fruition. Unless the Nets plan on rebuilding around a 31-year-old starting point guard, however, they'd be wise to sell high on him within the next month.
If the Nets move Jack, that would push Williams back into the starting lineup, which could help boost his trade value if he performs well in that role. Since keeping D-Will as a reserve will cripple the little trade value he has, the Nets might as well ship out Jack and start to restock their cupboards for what looks to be a long, painful rebuild.
Sell-High Honorable Mentions: Tony Wroten, Philadelphia 76ers; Lou Williams, Toronto Raptors
4. Buy-Low: Nik Stauskas, Sacramento Kings
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It's not often a team puts a rookie lottery pick up for sale on the trade market. According to CBS Sports' Ken Berger, however, the Sacramento Kings are doing just that with shooting guard Nik Stauskas.
The Michigan product, whom Sacramento selected eighth overall this past June, is only averaging 14.1 minutes per game this season and hasn't done much with that playing time. He's shooting 33.3 percent overall and 27.2 percent from deep, a far cry from his career shooting percentages in college (.467 overall, .441 on threes).
With Ben McLemore finding his footing after a rocky rookie season, Stauskas has quickly become a luxury on a team desperately in need of a complement to DeMarcus Cousins. Accordingly, the Kings are on the hunt for such a player, per Berger: "The Kings want to pair Cousins with a frontline player who would fit with his post-up skills—either a stretch four or above-the-rim defender."
While it raises the question why Sacramento drafted Stauskas in the first place—Noah Vonleh was still on the board at the time—the Kings' folly could be a great buy-low opportunity for another team. Berger noted "the Kings have the expiring contracts of Derrick Williams and Reggie Evans to include [in a Stauskas] deal, pushing the potential salary of an incoming player into the $10-$11 million range."
Any team that's willing to gamble on a promising rookie who hasn't yet found his groove—similar to McLemore last season—would be wise to engage the Kings in trade talks. Stretch 4s and above-the-rim defenders don't exactly grow on trees, but neither do shooters capable of handling the ball and drilling 40-plus percent of their three-point looks.
4. Sell-High: Enes Kanter, Utah Jazz
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The Utah Jazz currently find themselves at a crossroads with Enes Kanter, the No. 3 overall pick from the 2011 draft.
On one hand, his per-game averages of 13.5 points and 7.1 rebounds are perfectly respectable for a starting center, given that he's only playing 26.6 minutes a night this season. The Jazz are 2.7 points per 100 possessions better offensively with him on the floor, and their effective field-goal percentage is more than two percentage points higher with him playing, too.
On the other hand, he's a major defensive minus, having yet to average more than 0.4 steals and 0.5 blocks per game in a single season. This year, Utah is allowing opponents to score 111.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the court and just 102.0 per 100 with him on the bench—a differential of more than nine points per 100 possessions.
With shot-swatting behemoth Rudy Gobert waiting in the wings, the Jazz would be wise to consider selling high on Kanter, who's set to become a restricted free agent in July. Given Gobert's sizzling play of late—he's averaging 10.0 points, 9.2 rebounds and an unfathomable 4.2 rejections since the calendar flipped to 2015—Utah has less incentive to break out the big bucks to re-sign the Turkish big man this summer.
Kanter's upcoming date with restricted free agency could limit his trade value, but since the Jazz aren't anywhere near sniffing the playoffs, there's little short-term harm in moving on from him if they find the right deal. Landing a future first-round pick and/or a promising young prospect would be far better for the Jazz than losing him for nothing in July.
3. Buy-Low: Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets
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Given the smoke surrounding Brook Lopez, his time with the Brooklyn Nets appears to be coming to an end within the next month.
The Nets and Oklahoma City Thunder discussed a trade centered around Lopez on Thursday and Friday, according to ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard, but Brooklyn "backed away from discussions" Friday afternoon, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. Wojnarowski reported Thursday that the Nets had "accelerated trade discussions" for Lopez "with the intention [of] moving him soon."
With team owner Mikhail Prokhorov reportedly looking to sell the Nets, per Bloomberg's Scott Soshnick, general manager Billy King has real incentive to reignite trade talks for Lopez over the coming days. Brooklyn is roughly $13.7 million above the $76.8 million luxury-tax line, which has the team in line to pay around $25.5 million in taxes this summer, barring any further roster changes.
Given the Nets' dire financial straits, Lopez suitors should be circling the franchise like sharks that smell blood in the water. Though his rebounding leaves much to be desired—he's averaged just 6.5 boards per game over the past four seasons—the Stanford product is one of the league's most offensively gifted 7-footers, having averaged at least 18.8 points in each of the five seasons prior to 2014-15.
Any team willing to absorb Lopez's bloated contract would be wise to buy low on him, despite his long-lasting injury concerns. Though he's not a franchise-changing center like Anthony Davis or DeMarcus Cousins, his scoring punch would be a welcome addition to most big-man-needy teams.
3. Sell-High: Goran Dragic, Phoenix Suns
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Though the Phoenix Suns currently hold a three-game lead over the New Orleans Pelicans and Oklahoma City Thunder for the final playoff spot in the West, much can change between now and the trade deadline. If the Suns stumble over the coming weeks, they may be forced to consider breaking up their three-headed hydra of point guards, starting with Goran Dragic.
The Dragon kicked off the season slowly, averaging 12.0 points on 41.1 percent shooting, 4.0 rebounds and 2.2 assists over his first five contests, but he's caught fire since the calendar flipped to 2015, averaging 16.8 points on 53.7 percent shooting, 4.5 boards and 4.1 assists in his past eight games. Unfortunately for Phoenix, Dragic is expected to decline his $7.5 million player option for 2015-16 to become an unrestricted free agent this summer, according to ESPNNewYork.com's Ian Begley.
In December, CBS Sports' Ken Berger reported multiple teams had already inquired about "what it would take to break up the Suns' three-guard rotation of Dragic, Eric Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas—with Dragic, a prospective free agent, garnering the most attention." While "executives have gotten the impression that Dragic is the one Phoenix would most like to keep if they do, indeed, decide to make a move," Berger wrote, he also noted the Suns will continue gauging his value on the trade market:
"The anticipated rise in the salary cap resulting from the NBA's $24 billion TV deal has bolstered Phoenix's hopes of re-signing Dragic, which they fully intend to do, a league source said. But in the meantime, they'll listen to offers as they try to establish his value on the open market and what it will cost to pay him.
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Both Berger and Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher mentioned Dragic as a potential trade target for the Houston Rockets, with the latter saying general manager Daryl Morey is expected "to go hot and heavy after a point guard" over the next few weeks. With the Suns already having committed roughly $20.4 million next season to Bledsoe and Thomas, they'd be wise to consider selling high on Dragic now, playoff chances be damned, instead of potentially losing him for nothing in July.
2. Buy-Low: Lance Stephenson, Charlotte Hornets
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On Thursday, it appeared as though Lance Stephenson was about to find his way off the list of buy-low trade candidates.
Chris Broussard of ESPN The Magazine broke the news of the Brooklyn Nets, Oklahoma City Thunder and Charlotte Hornets discussing a three-way trade that would have sent Stephenson from Charlotte to Brooklyn. The Hornets pulled out of those talks one day later, according to Broussard, as the Nets "were showing a reluctance to take on Stephenson," per USA Today's Sam Amick.
That likely won't stop the Hornets from attempting to find a willing taker for their mercurial 2-guard, however. "Charlotte has been desperate to move Stephenson, who has been unable to integrate himself into the franchise's culture under coach Steve Clifford," Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski wrote Friday.
The Cincinnati product has wildly underwhelmed since signing a three-year, $27 million contract with the Hornets in July, averaging just 10.2 points, 6.5 rebounds and 4.6 assists while shooting a dismal 38.7 percent from the floor. Despite the disappointing early returns, ESPN.com's Amin Elhassan wrote the following about Stephenson's trade value:
"There has to be some caution given he's on the books for at least this year and next to the tune of $18 million, with another $9.4 million team option in 2016-17. But he's still 24 years old, with a strong defensive foundation and frame and some marketable offensive ability.
The question (besides cost) is whether Stephenson is willing to subjugate to a lesser role, especially in light of his failure to take the next step forward and be a lead player.
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After missing 14 games due to a pelvic strain, Stephenson returned against the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday, putting up eight points, two assists and one rebound in 18 minutes. If he's able to string together a few quality games—and avoid disrupting Charlotte's chemistry—a team desperate for a potential impact player may be enticed to trade for him on the cheap.
2. Sell-High: Arron Afflalo, Denver Nuggets
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For the second straight season, Arron Afflalo finds himself on the sell-high list one month before the trade deadline.
Last year, the Orlando Magic resisted the temptation to deal Afflalo by the trade deadline, instead shipping him to the Denver Nuggets for Evan Fournier and the No. 56 overall pick on the day of the 2014 draft. This season, it's the Nuggets that need to consider selling high on the UCLA product between now and Feb. 19.
Afflalo has a $7.5 million player option for 2015-16, but he reportedly plans to decline it and become an unrestricted free agent, according to Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel. Given Denver's glut of wing players—including rookie Gary Harris—failing to move Afflalo by the trade deadline could leave the team empty-handed come July, as he'll have little incentive to re-sign barring a massive overpay.
According to ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne, "everyone is calling Denver" regarding the availability of Afflalo and forward Wilson Chandler, but nothing appears imminent at the moment. Head coach Brian Shaw told The Denver Post's Christopher Dempsey that the Nuggets aren't "actively shopping" either player, but he also admitted that "calls come in, and we field calls."
Shelburne mentioned the Miami Heat, Los Angeles Clippers and Charlotte Hornets as three potential suitors for Afflalo, while ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst affirmed the Nuggets' involvement in trade talks for him. With the eight-year veteran averaging 15.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.6 treys a night, Denver should have little trouble scrounging up interested suitors.
1. Buy-Low: Reggie Jackson, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Among all the NBA's buy-low trade candidates, Reggie Jackson leads the pack by a wide margin.
The Oklahoma City Thunder guard started 13 games in the absence of Russell Westbrook in November, averaging 20.2 points, 7.8 assists and 5.2 rebounds per contest. Given his comments to reporters during OKC's media day, Jackson's early-season success only seemed to portend his next career step:
"I want the majority of my time to be spent playing against other starters. I want to play against the best. I want to play against Chris Paul. I want to play against Kyrie Irving. I want to be considered playing against those guys. I want to be mentioned in the highest of levels. I want to get a chance to just go out and play and be the best I can be, to be considered among the best. I want to be the best.
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Jackson's desire to be a starter could limit his future in Oklahoma City, however, as Westbrook is signed through the 2016-17 season. With the Boston College product set to become a restricted free agent in July, ESPN.com's Royce White speculated how OKC's recent trade for Dion Waiters could affect him:
"The addition of Waiters has complicated not only Jackson's present but also his future. It gives the Thunder extra leverage and the ability to call any bluff in the offseason, as well as trade Jackson for return on investment now if they fear he's beyond keeping. You know, like they did with [James] Harden.
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In the Thunder's five games since trading for Waiters, Jackson has played just 20.2 minutes per contest, averaging 11.4 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.6 assists. Any point guard-needy team would be wise to inquire about Jackson's availability over the next month, especially if it's willing to cough up a piece in return that could help OKC in its push toward a playoff berth. (Brook Lopez, anyone?)
1. Sell-High: Brandon Jennings, Detroit Pistons
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Brandon Jennings' 2014-15 season can be broken down into two distinctly separate eras: pre- and post-Josh Smith.
In his first 25 games this season, all of which came with J-Smoove in the lineup, the Detroit Pistons point guard averaged 12.6 points, 6.4 assists, 2.7 rebounds, 1.4 three-pointers and 1.0 steals while shooting a ghastly 36.8 percent overall and 32.7 percent from deep. Since the Pistons waived J-Smoove on Dec. 22, however, Jennings is averaging 20.7 points, 6.3 dimes, 3.0 treys, 2.4 boards and 1.4 steals while shooting 45.2 percent overall and 43.8 percent from three-point range.
Given Jennings' career shooting averages—39.1 percent from the floor and 35.1 percent from downtown—his current hot streak screams "regression to the mean." As Nylon Calculus' Ian Levy noted, the five-game stretch after Smith's release represented Jennings' best-ever five-game average in terms of shooting percentage.
Following the Pistons' 114-111 win over the Toronto Raptors on Jan. 12, head coach Stan Van Gundy told reporters Jennings was "playing as well as I've seen him play since he came into the league." However, SVG also confessed, "Sometimes you're going 'Umm,' with some of his shots, but I'm not trying to put a leash on him."
Though Van Gundy could have a tough time swallowing the idea of trading his starting point guard given the team's meteoric post-Smith rise from the ashes, Jennings' trade value is likely at its apex. He's the definition of a sell-high trade candidate, especially if a point guard-needy team is willing to cough up valuable assets to acquire him.
Both Vincent Goodwill Jr. of The Detroit News and Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher characterized Jennings as "on the trading block" and "available," respectively, within the past month. If the Pistons are able to convince a suitor that his hot play as of late isn't a small-sample-size anomaly, Van Gundy the general manager might need to overrule Van Gundy the coach by agreeing upon a trade.
Unless otherwise noted, all advanced statistics via Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com. All contract and salary-cap information via Spotrac.com. Stats and records are current through games played on Sunday, Jan. 18.
