NFC Championship Game 2015: DraftKings Fantasy Guide for Packers vs. Seahawks

Some football fans could care less about who makes it to the Super Bowl after this weekend. Instead, they'll be rooting for individual players to perform well enough to win them their DraftKings fantasy league.

The NFC Championship Game between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks features several of the game's top performers at multiple positions. Marshawn Lynch, Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and others are widely considered some of the most productive players in the NFL from a fantasy standpoint. But who should you roll with this weekend?

Optimizing a lineup with a strict $50,000 salary cap is a daunting task. Recognizing value is imperative when playing daily fantasy games, especially when your money is on the line. It's important to recognize which positions have depth and which do not, as this makes it easier to spend big bucks on guys leagues ahead of the other options.

There are extremely valuable assets in the NFC title bout, yet there are also productive players who represent poor values this week for a variety of reasons. Below is a fantasy guide to the Packers-Seahawks matchup.

Best Values: Doug Baldwin ($5,000), Davante Adams ($4,300), Luke Willson ($4,000)

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There's expensive talent at quarterback and running back in this matchup. As such, you'd be wise to spend thriftily at wide receiver and tight end.

First, let's look at tight end. There are really only two options for you here. Luke Willson and Andrew Quarless are each respective team's No. 1 tight end, and both come cheaply. Willson ($4,000) is the far better option than Quarless ($2,600).

There's no telling how Quarless will do on a weekly basis. He tied a season high in catches last week with four, and he hasn't contributed more than 52 yards in a game.

Willson, on the other hand, has had a great past three games. Despite only hauling in nine passes, his 239 yards and three touchdowns prove that he has value. If you take the averages, three catches, roughly 80 yards and a touchdown is definitely worth more than the $4,000 price tag attached.

There are two pricey wide receivers in this matchup—Randall Cobb ($7,700) and Jordy Nelson ($7,600). Cobb is a decent play because of his performance last week (eight catches, 116 yards), but Nelson should be avoided. There's more on that below.

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There are valuable wideouts for far less stress on the cap. Davante Adams is valued at just $4,300. After last week's seven-catch, 117-yard, one-touchdown performance, that's a steal. Adams has been a volatile receiver for fantasy players, catching just four passes for 29 yards in his four previous contests. Don't be scared away, though.

He was targeted 11 times against the Dallas Cowboys, so his presence in the passing game is real. You must also consider that Cobb and Nelson will be covered closely by Richard Sherman and likely Kam Chancellor, in some capacity. That leaves Byron Maxwell or Jeremy Lane responsible for Adams. Those are two corners whom Adams can take advantage of.

Nelson himself speaks highly of Adams' progression this season, so it's clear that this offense trusts him to make plays in big spots:

Arguably the best value at wide receiver comes with Doug Baldwin, the No. 1 option in the Seahawks' air attack. He set career highs in targets (98), receptions (66) and yards (825) this season as the primary weapon of Wilson.

He had just three catches for 38 yards against the Carolina Panthers, but he added in a touchdown to save the fantasy owners who invested critical cap space on him. Baldwin won't light it up like Odell Beckham or Dez Bryant did for owners, but he'll consistently contribute roughly four receptions for 50 or so yards.

That's admittedly not knock-your-socks-off production. Still, saving money by playing Baldwin will help your team overall. He'll give you enough to warrant being thrifty and investing more money elsewhere.

Worst Values: Jordy Nelson ($7,600), Eddie Lacy ($6,300)

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As promised in the previous section, it's time to dive into the start-or-sit debate surrounding Nelson.

He put up astonishing numbers this year, catching 100 passes for 1,541 yards and 13 touchdowns (this includes the postseason). He has been targeted 156 times in 17 games. That's a whole lot of looks.

But he was disappointing against Dallas, catching just two of five targets for 22 yards. He couldn't get open against a combination of Brandon Carr and Orlando Scandrick. How do you think he'll perform against Sherman, Chancellor and Earl Thomas?

Paying $7,600 for a question mark is not a smart move. If he were coming off a strong game, then it would be a no-brainer to invest that type of money in him. Adams' emergence also should take some looks away from Nelson, so the deck is stacked against him.

Take a risk if you'd like, but there's a strong chance it won't pay off.

If you're looking for value at running back, then stay away from Eddie Lacy. Yes, $6,300 is a manageable sum, but the numbers he is going to put up wouldn't even warrant a $5,000 commitment.

Playing him against the No. 3 run defense in football during the regular season is just asking for a disappointing point total. He faced the Seahawks way back in Week 1, and CBS Sports' Jason Churchill reminded his Twitter followers about how he fared:

Those numbers with that financial commitment give you virtually no chance of finishing in the money.

The Packers will give Lacy every opportunity to run, though, because an offense cannot be one-dimensional against the Seahawks defense.

He's in line for 20-plus carries, so there's definitely a chance he produces more than he did in Week 1. But is 20 carries for 65 yards worth $6,300? Definitely not. You can play cheaper options from the AFC Championship Game like LeGarrette Blount ($4,500) or Dan Herron ($5,900) and get similar (if not better) results.

The Big Question: Aaron Rodgers ($7,800) or Russell Wilson ($8,000)?

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

For all intents and purposes, disregard the price tags on Rodgers and Wilson. The small difference between the two is often leftover money from setting your lineup anyway.

Choosing one over the other is perhaps the hardest decision you'll have to make this week. Wilson averaged about 22.1 points per game this season on DraftKings. Rodgers averaged 24.2. That's pretty much a wash.

There are plenty of cons to each quarterback in this matchup. The most important are highlighted in the below table:

	Aaron Rodgers	Russell Wilson
1	Calf injury	Lack of top receivers
2	Facing Legion of Boom	Conservative play-calling
3	Potential poor run game to depend on	Inconsistent offensive line

With that in mind, who should you trust?

The smart money is on Wilson, as his overall health and versatility will result in points. Even if the Seahawks' pass attack lives up to its No. 27 ranking, Wilson can gain valuable yards on the ground that will boost his point total.

Rodgers' mobility usually makes him a candidate for about 20 to 30 rush yards, but his calf injury will prevent him from really making an impact. Throw in his potential inability to avoid pass-rushers and the Legion of Boom, and he's in for an uncharacteristically poor performance.

Roll with Wilson and reap the benefits of a killer lineup.

Follow Kenny DeJohn on Twitter: @kennydejohn