Super Bowl 2015: Reviewing NFL Championship Odds and Conference Predictions
Ohio State and the NFL coaching carousel seem to be overshadowing something.
Oh, right, NFL Championship Weekend is a few days away.
It seems easy to forget that what is usually the best weekend of competitive action the NFL has to offer is on the way. Perhaps that has to do with the fact both matchups look so darn predictable.
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Look at what Las Vegas says about the weekend. Whether it is simple odds to win the Super Bowl or the individual matchup odds themselves, oddsmakers seem to give Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers no chance in Seattle. Ditto for Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts in Foxborough.
Any number of tired cliches apply, but the simple fact is that the games will be played and, entertaining or not, fans will want to tune in as football season inches closer to its conclusion.
Updated Super Bowl Odds Ahead of Championship Weekend
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-4 |
| New England Patriots | 19-10 |
| Green Bay Packers | 11-2 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 13-2 |
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 9 p.m. ET on Jan. 13.
2015 NFL NFC, AFC Championship Schedule and Odds
| Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks | Sunday, January 18, 3 p.m. | Fox | SEA -7.5 (47) | GB |
| Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots | Sunday, January 18, 6:30 p.m. | CBS | NE -7 (54) | NE |
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 9 p.m. ET on Jan. 13.
NFC Outlook
Rodgers versus Richard Sherman writes itself.
Just ask Rodgers, who spoke earlier this week on his ESPN radio show about what the star corner does to any offense, as captured by ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky:
"Look at the numbers, they don't lie. Not a lot of guys catch passes on his side, and for the amount of times he's targeted, his interception totals are very impressive. You just have to play your game, but if he's locking his guy down, he's probably not going to get a lot of passes thrown his way.
"
This could be a bit of a tactical decision by Rodgers, though. After all, he ignored Sherman's side of the field most of the day when these two teams met back in Week 1, as NFL on ESPN illustrates:
While that encounter is quite a long time ago, some lessons do apply.
Rodgers was healthier then, but he threw for just 189 yards with a touchdown and interception. Meanwhile, his defense allowed Russell Wilson to throw for a pair of scores and Marshawn Lynch rolled for 110 yards and two touchdowns on just 20 carries.
Las Vegas' love affair with the defending champions when it comes to the Super Bowl outlook goes beyond just Sunday's encounter.
The Seahawks are winners of seven straight, no easy task considering that includes Arizona and San Francisco twice, as well as sound Philadelphia and St. Louis teams. In the divisional round against the Carolina Panthers, Wilson threw a trio of touchdowns against a strong defense.
Green Bay is a great team. Rodgers, hobbled and all, can pull magical feats that capture the imagination, as he did one week ago against the Dallas Cowboys by throwing three touchdowns.
What seems lost in that accomplishment, though, is the fact that Tony Romo breezed his way to a pair of touchdowns and DeMarco Murray ran for 123 yards and a score—on the road at Lambeau Field, what is supposed to be one of the most difficult places to play.
The advantage certainly goes to Wilson and the Seahawks at home, especially if Lynch can get going again early and never look back. Green Bay has firepower, but not enough to keep pace on the road with Rodgers hurting.
Prediction: Seahawks 30, Packers 23
AFC Outlook
Bill Belichick is the most respected coach in the league (or should be) because of his sheer genius that hurts opponents the week prior to even stepping on the field with his New England Patriots.
Think back to Week 11, a 42-20 victory for the Patriots at home against the visiting Colts.
How in the world were the Colts supposed to know that Jonas Gray, a running back who hardly played in any game before that, would be the focal point of Belichick's attack, let alone rush for 201 yards and four scores?
Narrative writers want to suggest Andrew Luck is destined to take down Belichick and Brady in one fell swoop a week removed from dooming Peyton Manning before somebody dropped a nuke in the Denver front office, but truth be told, Manning's injury woes played a large part in the 24-13 Colts victory.
At the very least, Luck has Belichick's utmost respect, per NFL.com's Aditi Kinkhabwala:
Brady and the Patriots are quite healthy one week removed from a 35-31 win against the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round.
There, Brady overcame four touchdown passes from Joe Flacco, 129 rushing yards from Justin Forsett and not one, but two 14-point deficits to win the game.
The Colts are hot right now thanks to the emergence of running back Daniel "Boom" Herron, who ran for 63 yards and a score against Denver's second-ranked rush defense.
But those came on 23 carries, good for a 2.7 per-carry average. So while it is nice Luck seems to have a ground game to complement him, running for less than three yards a pop against a quarterback who is on fire as of late is a good way to fall behind and never catch up—New England has a top-10 rush defense, too.
Look for the New England defense to force a few turnovers at home as it funnels Luck into a one-dimensional attack. Brady's current form, paired with extra possessions, means Luck and the Colts will fail to keep pace.
Prediction: Patriots 28, Colts 20
Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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