The Case for Marcus Mariota to Forgo NFL Draft and Stay in College

Marcus Mariota was willing to trade his Heisman Trophy for a national championship. Would the opportunity to get another crack at that elusive title be worth holding off on the NFL for another year?

By itself, that shouldn't be enough for Mariota to stick around. But combined with other factors, it could be just the incentive to make the best player in college football this season decide to postpone a pro career for another shot at immortality.

While it seems like almost a consensus opinion that he should leave now, Mariota needs to come back for one more year, if for no other reason than to ensure he's as ready for the next level as possible.

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If he goes now, he could be good or a major bust. Another year in school increases the chance he'll be the former rather than the latter.

Despite ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper listing him No. 1 on his big board (h/t ESPN CollegeFootball), the veteran analyst has his doubts about Mariota. As great as Mariota's numbers have been in college, they have to be tempered by who he's been playing against and how much higher the caliber is in the NFL.

"The big thing is, throwing to a guy that's wide open, that doesn't happen in the NFL," Kiper said during Tuesday morning's SportsCenter broadcast. "You have to throw guys wide open. The problem is, quarterbacks in the NFL aren't given any time to develop that."

Therein lies a huge problem for guys like Mariota, who come from systems that aren't similar to what's run by most NFL teams.

He'll likely get picked by a team—hello, Tampa Bay!—that would either try to wedge the square-pegged Mariota into a round hole or change its entire offensive scheme to fit one guy. Neither seems like a smart move or is likely to lead to much success early on.

With another year in college, Mariota would have the opportunity to work on the parts of his game that don't mesh with the pro game—particularly when it comes to his passing.

This would require Oregon coach Mark Helfrich and offensive coordinator Scott Frost to tweak their system some, yet this seems more doable considering what Mariota has done for the program than expecting an NFL team to cater to his style.

A complete overhaul wouldn't be needed. Rather, some new packages could be thrown into the mix—ones that would enable Mariota to make the kind of plays he'll be asked to make in the NFL.

Mariota has rarely, if ever, worked under center, yet that's likely to be the case at the next level.

A perfect place to make these tweaks would be in red-zone sets, where wide-open offenses like what Mariota has run in the past three years often get bogged down when there's less room to operate.

Despite scoring 45.4 points per game this season, Oregon ranked 44th in red-zone efficiency at 86.25 percent. Only 65 percent of possessions in that area ended in touchdowns, ranking the Ducks 41st.

In the College Football Playoff National Championship Game on Monday night, Oregon got into the red zone four times and came out with 13 points. The final play of each drive was inside Ohio State's 10-yard line.

Kiper said on SportsCenter that Florida State's Jameis Winston had the advantage over Mariota in terms of being NFL-ready. That's partly due to the system Winston played in, but also his skill set being more akin to that of a pro quarterback.

It's why Andrew Luck was considered such a can't-miss prospect in the 2013 draft, despite leaving at the same point in his career as Mariota. Each redshirted, then played three seasons and passed on a chance to go pro after a second standout college year.

Both Luck and Mariota benefited from that extra season, but Mariota can further himself even more with another one.

This isn't a knee-jerk reaction based on Mariota having what, by his standards, was a subpar outing in the title game. He threw for 333 yards and two touchdowns on 24-of-37 passing, numbers that would have been higher if not for some key drops by his injury-depleted receiving corps, but at many times Mariota didn't look crisp or confident.

And that was against college players, albeit some really good ones on Ohio State that include many future NFL standouts.

If we were basing this off small sample sizes, then how Mariota looked on Oregon's opening drive—he was 4-of-4 for 30 yards and a touchdown and ran twice for 15 yards—should have been enough to say he was ready to go and looking quite like the most recent mobile passer to hit it big in the NFL.

Russell Wilson does serve as a great comparison, but not because of similar playing styles—in terms of the route Wilson took to get where he is, at the helm of a Super Bowl champion that may well be heading back to the big game in a few weeks.

After three strong seasons at North Carolina State, Wilson had his degree. But instead of turning pro, he transferred to Wisconsin, where he completed 72.8 percent of his passes and threw 33 touchdowns against four interceptions.

His final game, in the 2012 Rose Bowl, saw Wilson throw for 296 yards and two TDs and run for a score in a 45-38 loss. To Oregon. With a redshirting Mariota watching from the other sideline.

If Mariota were a running back, this wouldn't be much of a debate. The NFL has shown there's a swiftly shrinking window for ball-carriers to make their mark before they're chewed up and spit out in exchange for a newer model.

That's not the case with quarterbacks, where eight of the top 10 passers this season are at least 29 and as old as 38.

Seven of those guys stayed in college until their eligibility was over.

The NFL allows for players to declare for the draft years after finishing high school, but it's not a requirement. Some athletes don't need all four (or five) seasons to get ready for the pros, but most do. Those who stay the whole time usually benefit from the extra time, and Mariota would as well.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.