Super Bowl 2015: Predictions and Latest Odds Ahead of Conference Championships

Headed into the AFC and NFC Championship Games, the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots are predicted to go to Super Bowl XLIX.  As we'll see shortly, both home teams are prohibitive and deserved favorites to advance to the championship.

However, history suggests that even significant favorites aren't necessarily locks when the competition reaches this high of a level.  Since the 2002 division realignment, favorites in the conference championship are just 13-11 against the spread, per Pro-Football-Reference.com.  That includes a paltry 2-4 record for teams favored by at least a touchdown.

Savvy bettors have the opportunity to cash in on both this week's lines and the current championship odds.  Using the post-divisional-round lines from Odds Shark, here's an early forecast for the best and worst championship bets among the remaining four teams.

Team	Odds
Seattle Seahawks	5-4
New England Patriots	7-4
Green Bay Packers	31-5
Indianapolis Colts	29-4

Better Underdog Pick: Green Bay Packers (31-5 or +620)

The extremely long odds from the Indianapolis Colts might look enticing, especially given how unexpectedly strong the Colts were in the trenches Sunday.  However, the Colts are still the most flawed team left in the field, while the Packers showed the ability to erase whatever shortcomings they may have had.

The main concern surrounding Green Bay is Aaron Rodgers' health. The potential MVP quarterback was noticeably gimpy throughout the Packers' narrow escape against the Dallas Cowboys.  Given that he posted his lowest single-game quarterback rating, yards per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt against Seattle back in Week 1, a limited Rodgers doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

However, Rodgers still posted a robust 83.1 QBR in Week 1 while averaging 9.0 yards per attempt.  He won't be at Lambeau next week, and the Seahawks defense is a big upgrade over the overachieving Dallas defense.  Nevertheless, it's clear Rodgers loosened up as the game went on, a notion the numbers and postgame interviews supported:

If Rodgers can operate efficiently, even while at less than 100 percent health, that gives Green Bay a legitimate chance at the upset.  Since Week 1, rookie Davante Adams has emerged to stabilize the ancillary parts of the Packers offense, while space-eating defensive tackle Brandon Mebane has been subtracted from the Seahawks defense.  No. 2 corner Byron Maxwell is a question mark as well after leaving the divisional-round game with an illness:

Defensively, the Packers have added more speed to the second level with the midseason adjustment of having Clay Matthews and Sam Barrington as the nickel package linebackers.  Seattle's spread-to-rush offensive philosophy wrecked havoc on plodders like A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones, as Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch combined to average 5.1 yards per carry.  Even the threat of Wilson's legs opened up big-play opportunities. 

The Packers are much better equipped to face the Seahawks this time around.  More importantly, though, Green Bay would likely be favored or a pick-em proposition against whoever emerges from the AFC.  Betting on the Packers now gives you an opportunity to hitch your ride onto the potential Super Bowl favorite (even though Green Bay is currently seen as third in the pecking order).

Better Favorite Pick: New England Patriots (7-4 or +175)

If the above logic applied to the Packers, then that makes the Patriots a safer bet than Seattle, which is arguably the more well-rounded team.  The Pats do have slightly longer odds; combined with the ostensibly softer championship game, New England offers more value as the clear second favorites.

While it's probably dangerous to invest too much stock in the Packers-Seahawks Week 1 game, the Pats and Colts played a more recent contest in Week 11. In this game, Jonas Gray became an overnight sensation after rushing for 201 yards behind a power-based game plan that used "Jumbo" six-offensive linemen sets to exploit a small Indy front seven.  Gray's performance was not out of the ordinary for the Patriots—in its last two games against the Colts, New England has posted a jaw-dropping 480 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns (!) on the ground.

Some may counter with the argument the Colts have not allowed an individual 100-yard rusher since that debacle.  Indy figures to commit to a game plan like the one it constructed against Denver. They committed to stopping C.J. Anderson while also playing press coverage to take away Peyton Manning's quick reads.  However, the Patriots have one confounding offensive weapon that the Broncos didn't, one that throws a monkey wrench in that idea:

Indeed, the Patriots haven't needed to rely on Tom Brady's right arm much in the past two Colts meetings, but the evidence suggests they could if needed.  Based on Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted DVOA metrics, the Colts ranked 27th in defending opposing tight ends.  Indy also ranked 31st against running backs, which could compel the Pats to turn to their uptempo shotgun sets with Shane Vereen if necessary.

On defense, the Patriots have done an excellent job bringing out the worst in Andrew Luck.  The third-year quarterback had a career-defining game in carrying the Indy offense to a productive day against a solid Denver defense, but it's tough to expect a similar effort when considering his history against the Patriots:

New England will bring essentially the same defense that blanketed a one-dimensional Colts offense for much of the Week 11 meeting.  Dan Herron wasn't the Colts starting back in that November game—Indy impossibly had 19 rushing yards on 16 attempts—and it seems likely that he and the Indy defensive front seven will need to totally flip the script for the ground game to keep this manageable.

That's not impossible if the Colts replicate their divisional-round showing, but 18 games of evidence suggest that that win was an outlier, particularly in regards to how they performed in the trenches.  New England might not necessarily be favored against either NFC team, but it probably possesses the greatest odds of simply reaching the big game, making it an intriguing bet.