Super Bowl Odds 2015: Initial Vegas Lines with AFC, NFC Championship Games Set

The NFL's version of the Final Four is set. 

Divisional-round action went mostly according to plan, with the New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers holding serve at home. The Indianapolis Colts upset that trend, though, beating the Denver Broncos to set up a pair of regular-season rematches in the conference championships. 

A bit unsurprisingly, Vegas currently favors the defending champs. But with four of the best quarterbacks in the league remaining, there is very little separation. 

Super Bowl Odds

Team	Odds
Seattle Seahawks	7-5
New England Patriots	9-2
Green Bay Packers	5-1
Indianapolis Colts	8-1

Note: Odds courtesy of Vegas Insider

NFC Outlook

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

During the very first game of the NFL season, the Seahawks held Aaron Rodgers to 189 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Limited to only two-thirds of the field as he completely avoided Richard Sherman, the eventual NFL MVP—probably—had his second-worst game of the year in terms of QB rating. 

But as he quickly pointed out, it would be a mistake to put too much stock into a game that happened 130 days ago:

Really, both teams are much different. 

The Seahawks, who started the season 3-3, didn't hit their stride until Bobby Wagner and Kam Chancellor got fully healthy in late November. Since Wagner returned from a turf toe injury in Week 12, the 'Hawks are 7-0, allowing a ridiculous eight points per contest over that span. 

On offense, while the game plan has always revolved around Marshawn Lynch, elusive dual-threat quarterback Russell Wilson is playing his best football of the season, as Bleacher Report's Cian Fahey discussed in depth:

"

Russell Wilson has shaken off the hesitation, is hitting peak form at the worst time for the rest of the NFL http://t.co/vYezPNCPpM

— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) January 11, 2015"

In the postseason, Wilson owns a 9-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, helping the Seahawks to a 5-1 record. 

"Sometimes I think I'm made for these situations," Wilson said, via ESPN.com's Terry Blount. "I try to be prepared for us, and when you're prepared, you're never scared. You just go." 

Of course, the guy on the other side of the ball is pretty good, too. Playing on one good calf against the Dallas Cowboys Sunday afternoon, Rodgers got off to a slow start but eventually secured the win by completing his last 10 passes for 163 yards, two touchdowns and eight first downs.

That run of transcendence was highlighted by an other-worldly touchdown throw threading double coverage:

What's different for Green Bay this time around, though, is the running game. In that Week 1 contest, Eddie Lacy had just 34 yards on 12 carries. In his last nine games, the bruising back is averaging a stout 5.1 yards per tote. 

The Seahawks, playing without Brandon Mebane and Jordan Hill in the middle, let Jonathan Stewart rumble for 5.4 yards per carry in the Divisional Round. They'll have to be better against Lacy if they want to return to football's promised land. 

AFC Outlook

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Once regarded as the most explosive offense in the league, the Denver Broncos managed a whopping 4.2 yards per play during Sunday's loss against the Indianapolis Colts. 

The important question: Was that a result of Indy's defense, which entered the week No. 13 in Football Outsiders' efficiency ratings? Or was it poor play from Peyton Manning, who looked mostly average during the last quarter of the season?

CBS Sports' Will Brinson gave his answer:

Manning looked like a shell of his Hall of Fame self. Struggling with a lack of velocity, he was inaccurate for most of the game, missed throws he usually hits with ease and couldn't string drives together. 

Still, you have to give the Colts credit. As Vontae Davis said afterward, via ESPN's Mike Wells, the defense came in with a clear game plan: 

And it worked wonders. 

But now the Colts' defense faces a more difficult test. Tom Brady, who has been terrific after a terrible first month of the season, threw for 367 yards, three touchdowns and one interception against a very good Ravens defense on Saturday. There was no problem with his arm:

At the same time, the Pats have had a very succinct scheme against the Colts. In their last two wins over Indy, they have played smash-mouth football, combining for 480 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. But on Saturday, Jonas Gray (who steamrolled Indy during a 42-20 win in November) was inactive and New England's running backs tallied seven carries for 14 yards. 

While a part of that latter number was due to playing from a deficit, the Pats are willing to take whatever the defense gives them, and that's what makes them so dangerous. 

It will be up to Andrew Luck to keep pace. The third-year rising star continues to get better, and it's going to be intriguing to see if he can take the next step in his progression against a very talented secondary.