Hypothetical Situation: Should the Chiefs Draft Jameis Winston, If Available?
After two strong seasons of college football at Florida State, Seminoles quarterback Jameis Winston announced that he will declare for the NFL draft. Since Winston is now going pro, it is worth asking: Should the Kansas City Chiefs consider taking Winston?
I know what you are thinking. You probably think this is an irrelevant subject because Winston won’t be available when it is time for the Chiefs to pick with the 18th selection in this year’s draft. But you never know, especially with quarterbacks in the draft.
Since 2007, unexpectedly, we have seen some quarterbacks fall in the draft.
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- Brady Quinn 22nd to Browns in 2007
- Tim Tebow 25th to Broncos in 2010
- Geno Smith 39th to Jets in 2013
- Johnny Manziel 22nd to Browns in 2014
When Johnny Manziel continued to drop in last year’s draft, there was some speculation during the draft whether the Chiefs would snag him. Manziel ended up going 22nd, one pick before the Chiefs were on the clock. Adam Teicher of ESPN.com tweeted that the Chiefs would have passed had he been available to the team.
It has happened before. Though the chances are slim, it could happen to Winston. So, what if that happens to Winston? Should the Chiefs take him?
The immediate answer is no. It would be hard to imagine that general manager John Dorsey would explore the option of selecting Winston for several reasons.
1. Alex Smith’s contract
Quarterback Alex Smith signed a four-year deal prior to the 2014 regular season worth $68 million. With Winston being a first-round pick, he would come with a high price on his contract and the team would be paying a lot of money to two quarterbacks.
2. Recent addition of Terrelle Pryor
Earlier this week, the Chiefs signed Terrelle Pryor and I mentioned that it spells the end for Chase Daniel. Adding Winston and making him a backup might work for a majority of the 2015 season. That scenario is typical for some teams with a first-round rookie quarterback.
However, if a team drafts a quarterback in the first round, keeping him on the sidelines the entire season with a clipboard would be a waste of a pick.
3. Winston’s off-the-field issues
Another thing to consider is that a majority of the attention Winston received during his college football career was more for negative reasons with alleged sexual assault and the crab leg incident. Though improvement and maturity is possible for everyone, the Chiefs can’t afford to take a risk on Winston when they are just a couple of pieces away from returning to the postseason.
4. Chiefs need a WR and OL, not QB
Above all else, the Chiefs have more important positions to address. Though there is a lot of room for Smith to improve, the Chiefs must work on finding a new wide receiver or offensive lineman with the 18th pick.
Those are all of the reasons as to why the Chiefs should avoid Winston.
But on the night of the draft, if Winston, somehow, continues to fall and eventually drops and becomes available at 18, then the discussion changes.
Again, hypothetically speaking, if Winston is available when the Chiefs are on the clock, then Dorsey is faced with the daunting task of picking Winston or going after positions—wide receiver and offensive line—in which the Chiefs desperately need help.
At this point, if Kansas City is lucky enough to be in this position, it should still consider passing on Winston. If you believe in history repeating itself, then Winston falling would be a bad sign. Just look at what has happened to some quarterbacks in recent memory who have, surprisingly, fallen.
Brady Quinn, Tim Tebow and Geno Smith all slipped during their years in the draft. Quinn and Tebow are no longer playing while Smith is off to a rough start with the New York Jets. As for Manziel, it is early too judge, but like Smith, things went south with him in Cleveland when he took over for Brian Hoyer later in the 2014 season. So far, his career is off to a bad start.
The Chiefs are used to taking players in the first round who end up having disappointing careers, such as Glenn Dorsey, Tyson Jackson, Jon Baldwin and, possibly soon, Eric Fisher. But drafting a quarterback and not getting what you expected out of him hurts the most and teams end up having to deal with that as a major loss.
Considering Winston’s off-the-field issues, his draft stock could fall, and a lot of people may not see it coming. The Chiefs must avoid Winston and focus on bringing in a wide receiver or offensive lineman to improve the team for 2015.
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