NFL Playoff Schedule 2015: Preview for Entire Divisional-Round Slate
Last weekend, Ryan Lindley and Andy Dalton almost made one-person arguments as to why NFL playoff expansion would be a bad idea. Lindley led perhaps the worst playoff offense in league history, while Dalton bumbled his way through a fourth straight first-round defeat.
Good news: The divisional round brings eight competent—or, heck, even pretty good!—quarterbacks to the table. While that may seem obvious in a quarterback-driven league, keep in mind that Matt Schaub was a second-round starter two years ago and Tim Tebow three. The 2014 and 2015 postseasons have provided consistent competency under center, but we should be mindful that's not always the case.
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| Saturday, January 10 | Baltimore Ravens (6) vs. New England Patriots (1) | 4:35 p.m. | NBC |
| Sunday, January 11 | Indianapolis Colts (4) vs. Denver Broncos (2) | 4:40 p.m. | CBS |
| Saturday, January 10 | Carolina Panthers (4) vs. Seattle Seahawks (1) | 8:15 p.m. | Fox |
| Sunday, January 11 | Dallas Cowboys (3) vs. Green Bay Packers (2) | 1:05 p.m. | Fox |
In fact, each quarterback battle comes with an inherent narrative draw. Joe Flacco and Tom Brady kick off festivities Saturday afternoon, familiar January bedfellows if there ever were some. Brady and Flacco will be entering their fourth head-to-head playoff matchup, each coming with relatively similar pregame storylines.
In all three prior matchups, the Patriots were the heavy favorite and were playing in Foxborough. Each time, Baltimore managed to overcome the narrative and withstand the allure of a Brady-Belichick road collapse. The Ravens have a 2-1 record in those contests, winning their two games by a combined 34 points and dropping a 2012 conference title game by only three.
The teams' most recent matchup was Baltimore's 28-13 triumph in the 2013 AFC Championship Game on its way to a Super Bowl.
Much like two years ago, Flacco comes into Saturday playing some of the best football of his career. He set career highs in passing yards (3,986), touchdowns (27) and QBR (67.3) during the regular season and was spectacular last week in a win over Pittsburgh.
The Ravens signal-caller has won his last five postseason games and improved to a sterling 6-0 in opening games. Conversations in Baltimore have shifted a long way from where they were a year ago, when most Ravens fans were having buyer's remorse over Flacco's huge contract.
"He’s a franchise quarterback and he’s had a great career," Brady told reporters. "Certainly he’s played some great games against us and we’ve got to find ways to slow their whole offense down."
Brady, so rarely the source of controversy throughout his career, has overcome a rocky campaign of his own. One month into the season, the Patriots offense was a stagnant, checkdown-filled mess. The always-rational New England area even began wondering whether Brady's advancing age might lead the organization to roll the dice on rookie Jimmy Garoppolo.
Brady responded with a blistering final 12 games that put him on the outskirts of the MVP conversation and sent Garoppolo supporters to the message board netherworld. The 37-year-old enters the playoffs in a familiar spot. He helms football's sixth-best offense, per Football Outsiders' DVOA metrics, has the best tight end in the world and has overcome yet another subpar receiving corps.
One major thing has changed, though: Brady has a defense this time around.
For the first time since New England's 2007 undefeated campaign, it has a defensive unit that ranks among the 11 best in football, per Football Outsiders. Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner have provided a steadiness on the outside arguably not seen since the peak of the Ty Law era. The Patriots' diligence rebuilding their run defense has also worked, as they ranked second-best in football during the second half after a miserable first eight games.
“I don’t feel that yet, but that’s ultimately what you want,” Browner said of getting enough respect, per Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald. “Once you win the big one, then all the eyes will open up. That’s when you really get that. And I don’t want it any other way. Hey, you can be the No. 1 defense all throughout the year, but if you get to the big one and lose, what does that matter?”
Defensive respect won't be an issue in either side of Saturday's second game. The Panthers and Seahawks enter with building-block quarterbacks in their own right but are led by perhaps the two best defenses remaining. Carolina overcame a dreadful midseason swoon to allow just 59 points over its five-game winning streak. Seattle closed by holding its opponents to seven or fewer points in five of its final six contests.
It'll be an interesting challenge not too dissimilar to the ones Russell Wilson and Cam Newton have faced each time they've played against one another. Wilson's gotten the best of Newton in each of those contests but none have been decided by more than five points and each has been an all-out slugfest. The Seahawks' victories have come despite scoring a total of 41 points. Carolina has scored a grand total of one offensive touchdown in those contests.
“I can’t make it personal. You can’t do that. It’s not about me. It’s bigger than me,” Newton told reporters. “It’s about going into a hostile environment and not only proving to people, but proving to ourselves, that we belong here.”
The Panthers are looking to become the first team with a losing record to win multiple playoff games in that season. The last team to make the postseason below the NFL Respectability Line was Seattle, which of course a year later landed Wilson and the rest was history. Odds are against the double-digit underdogs going on the road and winning at CenturyLink Field, but I suppose it's only history when it happens.
Sunday's games feature one quarterback trying to continue his historic run, another hoping his MVP campaign isn't derailed by injuries and another pair finally looking to get over the hump.
For Tony Romo, 2014 is a long time coming. It's the season many envisioned when the undrafted kid with big ears and a bigger smile took over for Drew Bledsoe in 2006. Romo was the best quarterback in the league by a ton of standard and advanced metrics, cut down on his costly turnovers and led the Cowboys to an ascendant December rather than their typical late-season swoon.
Last week, it was Romo at the helm of a scintillating playoff comeback instead of at the helm of a collapse. A robust offensive line, the NFL's leading rusher and perhaps its best red-zone threat have given Romo the best supporting cast in Dallas since, well, you know.
"We understand that we have a great team that we're going against who is going to be a great test, and you can't give them anything easy," Romo told reporters. "You've got to make it hard on them. This game is going to go all the way to the end. Things like that you figure are going to happen, and you just have to play one of your better games, and we understand that."
Working in Dallas' advantage is the mobility of Aaron Rodgers. Or, more accurately, the lack thereof.
ESPN's Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen reported Thursday that the MVP favorite was diagnosed with a torn calf muscle in addition to a strain (strain/tear are semi-semantic here, but we'll go with the common colloquialism). Rodgers has left no doubt about his status. He played through the injury in the second half of a Week 17 win over the Lions and has been held to minimal practice time over the last two weeks.
What's at question is whether Rodgers can be the same quarterback. He was essentially rendered immobile in the second half against Detroit. A stationary Rodgers can still be quite effective, but it'd be naive to think he's going to be in peak form.
"Just because he can do so many things with his feet," Jordy Nelson told reporters, acknowledging Rodgers will be "a little bit" different. "If it's just buying some time and allowing us to get in our scramble drill and making the big plays, which is always a big opportunity for us. He can make a lot of first downs, especially when teams try to play that two-man (coverage) and everyone is running with us, it gives him a lot of room."
Peyton Manning has never been one to make plays with his feet. But he does know Rodgers' plight of having everyone within earshot suddenly become a medical expert. There is no way anyone could have watched Manning over the Broncos' final five games and concluded he was at 100 percent. The deadly accurate flutterballs that have come to define his time in Denver were instead just the latter trait. One of the NFL's most aggressive passing teams, the Broncos suddenly turned into a ground-and-pound outfit that twice asked Manning for just 20 pass attempts.
Is Manning actually healthy? Who knows. But he says he is.
“I feel pretty good physically,” Manning told reporters. “Like all players, I’ve battled through some injuries. I think the bye week came at a good time for us, gave some guys a chance to get healthy.”
On the other sideline is Andrew Luck, who arrived in Indianapolis precisely because of Manning's health. Luck is making his third playoff appearance in as many seasons but is looking to finally get over a number of narrative humps.
While Luck's win against Cincinnati was the second of his playoff career, he's struggled when called upon against elite competition. The Patriots docked him for four interceptions in a divisional-round shellacking a year ago, as the upstart Colts folded on both sides of the ball. Luck has thrown a combined eight interceptions in his four playoff starts.
More interesting is the contrast between Manning and Luck. Their career paths will always be intertwined, beginning at a press conference where the Colts announced Manning's release and perhaps ending Sunday. It would provide a bit of a full-circle moment for Luck, getting over his biggest playoff hurdle against the legend he was tabbed to replace.
If only there were a drinking problem, a maniacal head coach or a pretty-but-not-too-pretty senior who works at a burger shack involved, this would make for a perfect sports movie finale. But it's not. It's two quarterbacks who share a mutual respect, whose careers are linked because of a career-threatening injury and the guile of an organization to go all-in on the youngster.
We'll find out Sunday how that final chapter will be written. The world will be watching.
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter
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