Breaking Down the Detroit Pistons' Incredible Resurgence
It's easy to link Josh Smith's departure to the Detroit Pistons' seven-game winning streak.
It's also satisfying. His shot selection was frustrating, his effort level often disappointing. Pegging him as the scapegoat, the cancer, feels good in a "I don't really want to think about this too hard" kind of way.
But it's too easy, and looking at what Detroit has done through that lens ignores some of the more important underpinnings of this recent run.
"We can't dwell on Josh," D.J. Augustin said after dropping 17 fourth-quarter points on the Dallas Mavericks in a 108-95 win on Jan. 7, per David Mayo of MLive.com. "Josh has moved on, we have to move on."
You know what, D.J.? You're right.
Here's an analysis of what's going on with the Pistons that's as Smith-free as is reasonably possible.
What's Up?
Detroit's offensive rating, that's what.
Through the 28 games with Smith, the Pistons' attack produced a meager 97.6 points per 100 possessions, the third-lowest mark in the league. During their winning streak, that figure has spiked to 111.5, third-best in all the land.
How is this happening, specifically? A look at their accuracy rates from key areas on the floor offers some explanation.
| With | 32.1 | 55.0 | 16.6 | 35.5 | 16.5 | 31.2 | 57.8 |
| Without | 30.9 | 61.1 | 16.0 | 41.1 | 21.1 | 40.5 | 52.2 |
There's nothing crazy going on in that chart, and some of the splits are even counterintuitive. For example, you wouldn't assume an offense suddenly scoring so efficiently overall would be doing so with a declining percentage of assisted buckets.
Those are the easy ones, and good offenses generally get their high-quality shots by moving the ball and limiting shot creation off the dribble.
Speaking of easy ones, it's also strange to note the decline in restricted-area field-goal attempts, marginal as it is. Of course, it helps that Detroit is capitalizing on its point-blank looks far more often of late, replacing its 55 percent accuracy rate during a 5-23 start with 61.1 percent shooting in its 7-0 surge.
Mid-range attempts have stayed steady, but they've been falling nearly five percent more often. And the biggest difference has been the Pistons' three-point shooting. Above-the-break attempts are way up, by nearly five per game, and they're going in at a 40.5 percent clip—much better than the 31.2 percent figure of the Smith era.
Brandon Jennings, in particular, has been unconscious, hitting 42.1 percent of his above-the-break threes over the past seven games after converting just 30.7 percent in his first 25 contests.
Seth Partnow of Nylon Calculus has more on Jennings' recent run:
"The mercurial point guard has always had a penchant for the pull up jumper, even if maybe he shouldn’t, in 2013-14, Jennings shot 34.7% on these attempts. However, during his streak he is hitting pullups wtih a 69.2% eFG including 48.6% from three on nearly 6 attempts per game.
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So, the Pistons are hitting everything—relying on increased long-range attempts, fewer assists and a wholly unforeseen accuracy jump from one of the least efficient backcourt shooters in the league.
If you're a skeptic, this is when alarm bells start going off. But hey, we're here to figure out what's happening, and that's what's happening.
Redistribution of Labor
Smith's removal shifted roles around significantly. And the way head coach Stan Van Gundy has doled out minutes over the last seven games is telling.
Jonas Jerebko's playing time is up, and Jodie Meeks is also seeing more of the court. Toss in Anthony Tolliver, and virtually all of Smith's minutes are being spread among three players with one common trait: They stretch the floor.
That makes it easier for Van Gundy to employ his pet strategy, the one he used to such great effect with the Orlando Magic. He gets to play one-in, four-out basketball.
We said we'd lay off Smith as much as possible, but this is where we can't avoid talking about how his subtraction clarified a murky situation. Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond aren't effective players outside the lane on offense, and playing them together on D sacrifices quickness at the power forward spot.
Now, Van Gundy can use both of them in lineups with four perimeter-oriented players, opening up the middle and keeping each out of the other's way. So when you look at jumps in three-point and close-range accuracy, you have to consider how much easier it is to score in those high-yield areas when defenses have to cover the entire floor.
If you view Detroit's improved offense as a fluke, at least consider the possibility that its rotation and overall system make much more sense now and, more importantly, are more sustainable than hot shooting.
Simpler than Simple
Blaming Smith is simple, and it has the benefit of being partially fair.
But there's an even simpler explanation for the Pistons' run: They're making shots.
Watching Detroit lately, you can't ignore the crisp, almost urgent way it's playing. Maybe the rest of the roster viewed Smith's dismissal as a wake-up call. Maybe Jennings is motivated by a fear of being next in line. Whatever the case, there's no question the Pistons look fresher, somehow rejuvenated.
Unfortunately, if you're in search of sustainable trends, good vibes turning errant shooters into accurate ones isn't a long-term answer. Smarter rotations are, though, and they'll help the Pistons avoid backsliding toward the level of play that led to five wins in their first 28 games.
At the same time, Jennings will come back to Earth eventually, and the declining assist rate is cause for concern.
The Pistons have shown remarkable growth lately. And even when they eventually settle into a groove somewhere between the two extremes they've displayed so far, they should be good enough to make the playoffs in the East.
All statistics via NBA.com, unless otherwise noted, and are current through games played on Wednesday, Jan. 7.
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