Denver Broncos Hoping for Julius Thomas Resurgence in Playoffs

An offensive evolution midseason sapped the Denver Broncos of some of their dynamism on offense. They made some solid changes, but winning in the playoffs requires an extra gusto that only the passing game can provide.

The new-found running game doesn't hurt the Broncos, but it's just as likely to keep the opposing team in the game as it is to help wrap things up. A resurgent Julius Thomas would be the difference-maker that the Broncos are missing.

Running more made sense while quarterback Peyton Manning was nursing a thigh injury and Thomas was recovering from an ankle injury, but it didn't do much to stimulate scoring despite improved defensive play. The running game hasn't really helped Manning, either, as he has struggled more than he has at any other time as a Bronco over the last two months.

The Broncos turned the ball over 14 times—12 by Manning—over the final eight games compared to just six times over the first eight. Many have blamed his ailing thigh, but his struggles seem to predate our knowledge of the injury.

Split	Expected Points (AVG)	PPG	Turnovers/Game	1st Downs/Game
Weeks 1-10 (Thomas Healthy)	9.1	31.7	0.9	20.6
Weeks 11-17	7.9	28.0	1.7	18.0

Manning's struggles started around the same time Thomas hurt his ankle, and they have persisted as his injury had lingered. Now that Thomas is closer to being healthy, the Broncos desperately need to get him reintegrated into the offense.  

Thomas turned down a long-term contract offer prior to the season, per Lindsay H. Jones of the USA Today. Although he started strong and the bet on himself appeared to be paying off, the ankle injured resulted in disappointing regular season numbers—just 43 receptions for 489 yards.

As Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco taught us, a well-timed postseason outburst can overshadow a below-average regular season performance and add millions to a long-term contract offer. Thomas has the opportunity to not only help his team, but also to help himself in a big way this postseason.

Thomas makes Denver's offense dynamic because he's a weapon in the red zone and he opens up space for wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Extra space can be the difference between an interception and a completion or a tough catch in traffic and one with space to run after it.

Manning's accuracy is still superb, but he doesn't have the velocity on throws to complete passes consistently through tight windows. He needs Thomas, even just as a decoy, but he's obviously of greater benefit the healthier he is.

Split	Sanders	Demaryius	Julius
Weeks 1-11 (Before Julius Ankle Injury)	3.9	6.5	4.0
Weeks 12-17	4.4	4.5	5.0

The good news is that the bye week afforded both of them some extra time off to heal. Manning should be better able to use his legs to generate throwing power, and Thomas should be able to regain some agility in his bum ankle.

Thomas talked about how helpful the bye week was, via Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com:

"

It was a big week for me. It was good to get some rest. Every doctor will tell you the most important thing is rest, but it's tough to do in the middle of the season. So I got a little bit of time to stay off it and get some treatment on it. It went well.

"

Just how different is Denver's offense with a healthy Thomas?

Over the first eight games, the Broncos scored 31 touchdowns compared to just 24 touchdowns over the final eight games. Of those scores, only 25.8 percent of them came on third or fourth down in the first half, but 42.3 percent of them came on late downs in the second half of the season.

Not only did the Broncos not score as many touchdowns, but they also needed to execute on the later downs to do it. A key stop here and there can swing a game, and it was easier to hold off the Broncos in the second half despite similar total point outputs.

The Broncos attempted just nine field goals over the first eight games, but that number jumped to 20 in the second half. A huge factor is efficiency in the red zone. Over the first eight games, the Broncos scored on 25 percent of the plays in the red zone, but that dropped to nearly 10 percent in the second half.

Split	Plays	TD	FG	TO
1st Half	88	25.00%	4.50%	1.10%
2nd Half	111	15.30%	12.60%	1.80%

It would be unwise for the Broncos to rely on converting on third down and their kicker to win them games. Opposing teams are so capable of scoring—even on Denver's great defense—that the NFL equivalent of small ball just isn't a recipe for success. They need to score when they get there, and there's no easier way to do it than throw it to Thomas.

Of Thomas' 12 touchdowns, 10 came in the first half, and he added two others before he hurt his ankle against the St. Louis Rams in Week 11. He had 54 targets before his injury and just eight since. He turned his eight targets into three receptions for 63 yards, so he's still proving capable of making big plays even while hurt.

"I'm confident when they call my number, I'm going to be able to make a big play," Thomas said, via Mark Kiszla of The Denver Post. "And we've got the playoffs to see."

Despite his injury, Thomas still finished tied for the league lead in touchdowns for a tight end with 12 and fourth in catch percentage at 69.4 (minimum 40 receptions). He scored seven touchdowns against playoff teams and five of them against teams still in contention. His best game was Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts, when he caught seven passes for 104 yards and three touchdowns, all season highs.

Emmanuel Sanders	Catch Rate	Yards/Rec	TD %
Demaryius Thomas	Catch Rate	Yards/Rec	TD %
Weeks 1-11 (before Julius was hurt)	72.80%	14.2	10.40%
Weeks 12-17	69.40%	13.2	5.90%
Weeks 1-11	64.90%	15.3	4.20%
Weeks 12-17	53.40%	13.2	12.80%

Since Julius hurt his ankle, Demaryius Thomas' catch rate has declined 11.5 percent, and his yards per reception has gone down 2.1 yards. Sanders' catch rate has gone down 3.4 percent, and his yards per reception has decreased by a full yard. Demaryius has become the go-to receiver in the red zone, but Sanders hasn't been as effective there as he was.  

Obviously, the Broncos are still a threat on offense even without Julius Thomas, but it's undeniable that he gives the offense a lift. Demaryius is better, Sanders is better and the offense is very difficult to slow down, much less stop.

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Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via Pro-Football-Reference.