Chad Gaudin: Great Pickup?

Hey everyone, I’m new here at Bleacher Report, and I’m pumped to get started. I had been writing over at Pending Pinstripes, but the opportunity to come over here was one I couldn’t pass up. I’d consider myself a stat guy and an adamant farm system follower. Hopefully you’ll enjoy my work and feel free to leave any questions or comments for me.

You’ve all heard the adage, “sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make.” Many Yankee fans were confused when the Yankees didn’t make a deadline deal for another starting pitcher, considering the way the rotation looks right now, and the fact that Joba doesn’t have too many starts left in him.

One of the Yankees primary targets was Jarrod Washburn, a player that the Yankees have been interested in every year. Washburn has had his best season in years, with an ERA of 3.46 and a FIP of  3.97. The discrepancy in his FIP and ERA isn’t huge, but he has been a beneficiary of good luck and good defense this season. He has allowed a .248 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) which is something pitchers have little control over. For his career, he has allowed a .309 BABIP.

While he has been quite solid this season, the fact that he has been just average the past 6 seasons outweighs the four good months he has this season. His best FIP since 2002 has been 4.35. The ZiPS projection system agrees, and has him pegged for a 4.42 FIP going forward. Going forward, that would be worth around 1 win at a price of about $4 million. Using Sky Kalkman’s trade calculator, Washburn has a net value of only $600,000. The Mariners were demanding one of the Yankees top prospects, Austin Jackson, and wouldn’t budge from there. How much is a top 25 hitting prospect worth? According to Victor Wang’s prospect value research,  a prospect of Austin Jackson’s caliber has a net value of $25.1 million. Essentially, if Cashman pulled the trigger on this deal, he would have been trading a $25 million asset for one worth under $1 million.

Let’s move on to the Yankees recent acquisition, Starting Pitcher Chad Gaudin. Contrary to Washburn, Gaudin’s surface numbers look terrible. He has pitched to an ERA of 5.13 even though he pitches in the NL and in the spacious Petco Park. A look deeper into the numbers shows that Gaudin has pitched quite well. He has a FIP of 3.68 and has struck out just under 1 batter per inning. The Yankees only had to give up a player to be named later for him, and he is under team control through 2011. ZiPS has him pegged for a 3.37 FIP going forward, but that’s in the NL, so a more reasonable prediction is probably slightly above 4.00 due to the difference in leagues.

Here is a chart showing how Washburn and Gaudin compare according to different metrics.

	Jarrod Washburn	Chad Gaudin
FIP	3.97	3.68
xFIP	4.70	4.23
tRA	5.02	4.13
tRA+	99	112
ERA	2.93	5.13

Cashman has continued to show a knack for picking up guys above replacement level who add depth to the team. I love this move about as much as you can love a minor pickup. Here is a little table showing you what both guys have done so far for further comparison. All of these metrics have better predictive value than ERA, and Gaudin has performed better according to each one.

Instead of overpaying for an overachieving old pitcher, Cashman underpaid for a 26 year old pitcher with some upside. Another pro of the deal is what Gaudin could do out of the bullpen for the Yankees in the post season when he won’t be starting (I’m assuming he’ll take Mitre’s starting job quite soon). Of the 237 right handed batters Gaudin has faced, he has struck out 71 while walking only 19. In the bullpen, he can be a dominant right handed specialist. There is one downside to the deal, though; Gaudin won't be able to sport such amazing beards anymore.

If you have any questions, leave a comment and I’ll be sure to answer promptly.

All statistics are from Fangraphs and Statcorner.