5 Factors That Will Decide Southampton's Champions League Qualification Fate
Southampton have been one of the Premier League’s surprise packages this season, defying many predictions that they were relegation candidates. The Saints currently lie fourth in the final Champions League qualification position.
They have a wonderful opportunity to break up the traditional big-money monopoly that dominates England’s four slots in the top European Cup competition. With just under half the season remaining, there are five key factors that will determine whether they can stay the course and reach the Champions League for the first time in their history.
These factors are in no particular order, as they are all equally important to Southampton's chances, with each one capable of making or breaking their season.
Squad Depth and Injuries
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St Mary’s has long been famed for being a veritable production line for talent, with the likes of Theo Walcott, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Gareth Bale all coming through the academy. This season, the academy has furnished their squad with several talented players who they haven't needed to splash out for.
The club is middle-of-the-road in terms of injuries but has so far managed to avoid any significant layoffs to their key players. The club also boasts the youngest squad in the Premier League, meaning of all the teams, they should—theoretically—be the least likely to fade as the gruelling season comes to an end.
The Form of Key Players
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While their squad depth has stood them in good stead, Southampton have—like all top teams—some standout players who have helped propel them to their current lofty position. Of these, two are more important than the rest.
Graziano Pelle has hit the ground running after signing in the summer as the club’s replacement for Liverpool-bound Rickie Lambert. He’s so far scored eight and has generally been a menace to defences up and down the country.
However, the rest of the 29-year-old’s career has been largely uninspiring (save for two seasons in the Eredivisie against relatively weak defences), and he has scored just twice in his last 11 games. The Saints must hope that his form so far for the club has been the sign of a maturing player and not merely a purple patch.
Another player who holds the key to the Saints’ season—in quite a different way—is Morgan Schneiderlin. The French defensive midfielder has arguably been the club’s best player this term and has attracted attention from Arsenal.
If Arsene Wenger attempts to revitalise the Gunners’ ailing campaign by moving for his fellow countryman in January, Southampton must do all they can to hold on to him.
Key Competition Beginning to Click into Gear
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Another concern for the South Coast club is the prospect of their competition for the final qualification position. So far, many teams have struggled for form, with only Chelsea and Manchester City truly impressing. Even Manchester United, who appear to be on course for third, have looked unconvincing.
Southampton’s four main competitors appear to be Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham United and Liverpool. All four offer a genuine threat should Southampton slip up.
Arsenal have never failed to qualify for the competition under the stewardship of Arsene Wenger, and they will be even more imposing should they manage to sign Schneiderlin in January.
Spurs appear to be finally finding their feet under Mauricio Pochettino, and they comprehensively beat leaders Chelsea in their last league match.
West Ham appear to be outsiders. However, few gave them a chance of finishing in the top 10, let alone challenging for the European positions, so a surprise is not beyond them. Liverpool, like Spurs, look to be finally clicking and could yet rediscover last season’s form when Daniel Sturridge returns.
The Saints have so far fared well against this key competition, and their final three games against them—versus the Hammers, Spurs and Liverpool—are all at home, where they have already beaten Arsenal. It could well be results elsewhere that are the deciding factor.
Fixtures in the Second Half of the Season
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The Saints have already won their first game of the season’s second half against Arsenal, and their run-in is arguably easier than the games they’ve already played.
Their remaining 18 fixtures are split perfectly down the middle in terms of home and away. Their run of away games—which features trips to Manchester United, Chelsea, Newcastle United, Queens Park Rangers and Manchester City on the final day of the season—may look daunting, but these are more than balanced out by their home games.
The club host three of their four key rivals in the Champions League qualification race—Spurs, West Ham, and Liverpool—and the fact that they have the joint third-best home record in the league means they will be relishing the encounters.
The other opposition at St Mary’s will make for equally pleasant reading for the Saints faithful. Other than Swansea City, the visiting teams—Aston Villa, Hull City, Crystal Palace and Burnley—are a mixture of relegation candidates and mid-table sides that may well have little to play for by the time the fixture arrives.
Ronald Koeman's Experience
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Ronald Koeman has so far put forward a very persuasive argument for being the manager of the year. Many of the pre-season relegation predictions were based on the fact that Pochettino had departed the club for Spurs, but the Dutchman has surpassed his predecessor convincingly.
Koeman has an incredible CV in terms of the clubs he's worked with given his relatively young age. He's also won several titles, which will stand him in excellent stead.
However, his spells at PSV and Valencia were marked by second-half slumps. At the Dutch club, he eventually won the title on the final day of the season, having at one point been over 10 points clear.
Southampton must hope that these experiences were formative and not a trait Koeman still carries with him.
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