2015 NBA Mock Draft: How the Entire 1st Round Shakes out Entering the New Year
In what was supposed to be more of a down year in terms of talent, the projected 2015 NBA draft field is starting to look stronger by the day. New names have consistently found their way into the conversation.
And for the most part, upperclassmen have largely taken the next step.
On the other hand, we've seen a couple of freshmen regress or hit the wall. Syracuse's Chris McCullough, Utah's Jakob Poeltl and Kansas' Cliff Alexander have been taken off the board with the expectations they'll remain in school another year.
We went with the current NBA standings to determine the mock draft order and accounted for any previous trades that involved 2015 picks.
1. New York Knicks: Jahlil Okafor, Duke, 6'11", C, Freshman
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It's been 20 years since the Knicks landed a top-five pick. And they've ever needed one more than now, following a 5-32 start and a trade (J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert to Cleveland) that officially ignited a franchise rebuild.
At No. 1, you'd like to think the Knicks will focus on Duke's Jahlil Okafor, who has begun to separate from the pack, having scored at least 21 points in six of his last nine without shooting below 57 percent in any of them.
At 6'11", 270 pounds with a 7'5" wingspan, Okafor could give the Knicks an eventual go-to option in the post, where his skill level for an 18-year-old is unlike anyone's in years.
He's been unstoppable early on, having flashed a powerful yet delicate back-to-the-basket game.
The Knicks can't afford to miss here, and with a tremendous basketball IQ, immaculate physical tools and a spectacular offensive game, Okafor offers more certainty than anyone else on the board.
2. Philadelphia 76ers: Emmanuel Mudiay, China, PG, 1996
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Based on Philadelphia general manager Sam Hinkie's recent track record, chances are he's going to take whoever's first on his board, regardless of position, injury history or developmental setting.
The Sixers are in asset-stockpiling mode. They'll sort them out after they acquire the most valuable ones.
And Emmanuel Mudiay is starting to look like the second-best option in the projected 2015 field, following a strong stint in China and a fairly quiet offensive start for Karl-Anthony Towns at Kentucky.
I wouldn't put too much stock into Mudiay's strong numbers abroad, but he certainly aced the eye test while taking it to grown men and professionals.
At 6'5", he's a mismatch at the point, where he can facilitate the offense or take it over as a scorer. Mudiay has ridiculous change-of-direction ability and quickness, along with the feel for the game and vision to find his teammates. In terms of ceiling comparisons, think John Wall meets Jrue Holiday.
Whether Philadelphia takes Mudiay or Towns, there's going to be a logjam somewhere.
But given the trade rumors, via Zach Lowe of Grantland, that previously swirled regarding Michael Carter-Williams, it shouldn't be too surprising if Hinkie went after another guard.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves: Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky, 7'0", C, Freshman
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It's been a quiet stretch for Karl-Anthony Towns, who's had a tough time standing out offensively in Kentucky's loaded frontcourt.
After a strong first half against Ole Miss Tuesday night, Towns looked on from the bench down the stretch of the second half and overtime, while Willie Cauley-Stein, Trey Lyles and Dakari Johnson each rotated in and out.
Towns' lack of offensive production isn't necessarily a knock on him as a prospect, but it won't help his draft stock while Jahlil Okafor is over at Duke dropping 20 on a nightly basis.
Regardless, there's loads of upside tied to Towns' two-way versatility, and based on Minnesota's current roster, he seems to fit right in.
At this point, he's pulling in 13.3 rebounds and blocking 4.5 shots per 40 minutes while showing flashes of inside-out scoring potential as a post threat, shooter and passer.
If he can ever break into Kentucky's rotation as a 25-minute-per-game player (he's playing 19.8 now), he might not even be here at No. 3 when it's all said and done.
4. Los Angeles Lakers: Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky, 7'0", C, Junior
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At No. 4, the Los Angeles Lakers can't say for sure there's a potential superstar left on the board. But there's a good chance they could land a franchise cornerstone in Willie Cauley-Stein, who has long-term starting potential at the NBA center position.
He's been an occasional one-man game-changer for Kentucky—a guy who can impact possessions and outcomes without needing offensive touches.
Defensively, he's flashed the range and versatility to cover more ground (and airspace) than any player in the country. From rim protection and pick-and-roll defense to denying entry passes in the post, Cauley-Stein can disrupt an offense from a variety of different angles.
In terms of the numbers, he ranks No. 1 in college basketball in defensive rating and No. 4 in defensive win shares. No center in the nation has a higher steal percentage.
At the other end, his ball skills still remain raw, but as a finisher off pick-and-rolls and drop-offs and as a clean-up man off misses, Cauley-Stein brings just enough to the offensive table when placed in the Tyson Chandler role.
5. Detroit Pistons: Justise Winslow, Duke, 6'6", SF, Freshman
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Cutting Josh Smith was no doubt addition by subtraction for the Detroit Pistons, but it wouldn't hurt to replace some lost athleticism on the wing, as Kyle Singler and Caron Butler simply aren't long-term answers.
Cue Justise Winslow, one of the most explosive small forwards and top defenders in the draft.
Though his ball skills are still a bit raw, Winslow impacts games with his motor and energy.
Offensively, he's automatic in the open floor and dangerous in the drive-and-slash game. He's even shooting 39 percent from downtown, having made a three-pointer in every single game he's played in.
Defensively, he's tenacious. With quick feet, active hands and a strong basketball frame, Winslow has the ability to bring suffocating pressure and the versatility to guard three positions.
Everyone will want this guy on their team—it just might take a few years for his offensive game to come around.
6. Charlotte Hornets: Stanley Johnson, Arizona, 6'7", SF, Freshman
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Stanley Johnson would probably be a solid pick anywhere outside the top two or three, as there just aren't many questions to ask regarding his eventual transition.
At 6'7", 245 pounds, he has a diesel frame built for the NBA level. And he's shooting it 44.7 percent from downtown.
Johnson's one-on-one game could use some work, but he's still averaging 14.4 points per game to lead a top-10 team as a freshman. He's excellent in the open floor and slashing from the wing, where he displays some impressive touch in the runner-and-floater game.
His limitations as a creator and playmaker weigh a bit on his perceived upside, but Johnson has all the tools to eventually evolve into a tough two-way wing.
Via Marc Stein of ESPN, the Hornets have reportedly had reservations regarding Lance Stephenson earlier in the season. Johnson is a guy they could develop to eventually replace him on the wing.
7. Utah Jazz: Kristaps Porzingis, Latvia, 7'0", PF, 1995
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At some point, the upside tied to Kristaps Porzingis will just be too enticing.
He's producing over in Eurocup (10.2 points per game) and the Spanish ACB (8.7 points per game) while flashing the inside-out versatility that traditionally fuels frontcourt mismatch potential.
Porzingis has some unique perimeter ball skills for an athletic 7-footer, particularly an outside stroke that's connecting at a 41.1 percent clip from downtown. He's hit at least one three in 16 of his 25 games.
But he can also put the ball on the floor and separate into jumpers in the mid-range.
At around 220 pounds, Porzingis is still a bit of a project, and it's worth questioning how well his body will develop and ultimately translate to the NBA interior. But the flashes of Dirk Nowitzki could make him tough to pass on seven picks deep.
8. Boston Celtics: Mario Hezonja, Croatia, 6'8", SG/SF, 1995
8 of 30Mario Hezonja was having a breakout December before he started to cool off toward the end of the month. No matter—he's already helped remind scouts what the hype has always been about.
At 6'8" with extraordinary athleticism, Hezonja has mismatch potential for a 2-guard or wing who can score, shoot and defend.
He's hitting 40.9 percent of his threes in Euroleague, and though he doesn't get the opportunity to create much, he's flashed the ability to separate into jumpers and slash to the rack from the wing.
Defensively, Hezonja has some world-class physical tools, which occasionally translate to a highlight blocked shot. He has to do a better job of anticipating and fighting through screens, but Hezonja has excellent on-ball defensive potential, given his size, quickness and strength.
9. Orlando Magic: Kevon Looney, UCLA, 6'9", PF, Freshman
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Kevon Looney has hit the wall a bit offensively, having scored less than 10 points in four consecutive games. His rebounding numbers are down a bit also, though he's still averaging 9.9.
He's clearly a lottery-type talent, with power forward size, length and instincts on the glass to match some impressive mobility and perimeter ball skills.
Looney is still raw in terms of creating one-on-one offense, but we have seen him knock down jumpers, as well as put the ball on the floor.
Down low, he does a nice job of finishing through contact, and with a nose for the ball, he's managed to rack up 26 putbacks in 15 games.
Looney ultimately has to improve his fluidity as a scorer, but his skill level and feel for the game are undeniable.
10. Indiana Pacers: D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State, 6'5", PG/SG, Freshman
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D'Angelo Russell continues to flash a lethal offensive attack consisting of potent scoring and slick playmaking.
He's finished with at least 22 points in three of his last four games (Wright State, Illinois, Minnesota), having to carry the load as the team's No. 1 option.
If he didn't, we'd probably see a bit more dishing from Russell, who truly has point guard vision and passing instincts.
On the year, he's averaging 5.1 assists while shooting a lights-out 45.8 percent from downtown (on 2.8 made three-pointers per game).
I'm into the Goran Dragic comparison, another crafty lefty who can create with the ball or score and shoot playing off it.
And scoring point guards are ultimately in these days. A team like the Indiana Pacers might want to target Russell, who has the potential to offer some much-needed backcourt firepower and versatility.
11. Chicago Bulls (via Kings Top-10 Protected): Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin, C
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Frank Kaminsky would likely be a strong option for anyone here at No. 11, given the value of his particular skill set and the progress he continues to make.
As a stretch or pick-and-pop option, he's knocking down 38.1 percent of his threes, as well as a terrific 49.1 percent of his two-point jumpers.
He's also improved his passing instincts, as he's only 13 assists shy of his entire 2013-14 total just 15 games in.
Kaminsky's footwork in the post is also as good as it's ever looked, making him a tougher back-to-the-basket (over-the-shoulder moves, up-and-unders) and face-up (spins, runners) cover in the half court.
For a team like the Bulls in win-now mode, he makes sense as a late-lottery option. Besides, Chicago could use a little depth at the 5 spot anyway.
12. Denver Nuggets: Kelly Oubre, Kansas, 6'7", SF, Freshman
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Kelly Oubre appears to have finally found his way into Bill Self's rotation, after picking up a double-double Sunday against UNLV and scoring 23 points against Lafayette on December 20 and 20 against Kent State December 30.
You knew it was coming. Oubre's confidence has risen with his minutes, and it's allowed him to showcase the two-way versatility that fueled the hype surrounding him out of high school.
At 6'7", he's a big-time athlete who can handle the ball and score. We've seen a little stop-and-pop in-between game and a much more aggressive defensive approach.
Before cooling off Wednesday night against Baylor, he had also hit 11 of 20 three-pointers over his previous five games.
13. Oklahoma City Thunder: Jerian Grant, Notre Dame, 6'5", PG, Senior
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Few prospects have made a bigger impact for their respective team than Jerian Grant, who has Notre Dame ranked No. 13 and climbing following its most recent win over North Carolina on Monday.
He's actually No. 1 in the country in total win shares at the moment.
It's not just the 17.3 points per game that have stood out—Grant's vision and passing instincts look terrific (6.3 assists per game). He's reading defenses and picking them apart, whether it's as a pick-and-roll facilitator or drive-and-disher.
At 6'5", Grant has the size and explosive athleticism for a playmaker that could ultimately trigger a team to reach.
And the further Notre Dame goes, the better he'll look as a lead guard for a winner.
With Reggie Jackson entering restricted free agency, Oklahoma City could look to replace him without dipping into free-agent funds.
14. Houston Rockets (via N.O., Top-13 Protected): Myles Turner, Texas, 6'11", C
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In doses, we've seen Myles Turner flash an awfully appealing two-way skill set. At 6'11", he's polished on the perimeter, where he can spread the floor as a shooter (8-of-22 from downtown) or separate into jumpers in the mid-range (40.7 percent on 22 of 54 two-point jumpers).
Defensively, his 7'4" wingspan and instincts translate to 2.7 blocks in only 21.9 minutes.
The big question with Turner revolves around his strength on the interior—and the fact that he's been fairly ineffective against quality opponents.
Against Oklahoma, Stanford, Kentucky, Connecticut, Iowa and California, he's averaging six points (and 3.3 fouls) on 33 percent shooting.
Turner's two big 20-plus point games have come against St. Francis and Lipscomb.
Regardless, he'll still draw plenty of interest based on his skill level, jumper and defensive tools. Turner's ability to stretch the floor would ultimately fit nicely into a Rockets frontcourt that lacks outside shooting.
15. Philadelphia 76ers (via Miami, Via Cavs): Bobby Portis, Arkansas, 6'10", PF
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There isn't much you can knock regarding Bobby Portis' game and performance. He's averaging 17.1 points and 7.6 boards on 56.8 percent shooting, and he's been consistent for the most part, having made at least seven field goals in seven of his last eight games.
Portis certainly aces the NBA eye test at 6'10" with long arms and a pure mid-range stroke. He's shooting 40 percent on two-pointer jumpers and 60 percent from downtown (9-of-16).
If you can temper your expectations when it comes to upside, Portis is probably one of the safer, better value picks expected to be there outside the lottery.
16. Atlanta Hawks (via Brooklyn): Trey Lyles, Kentucky, 6'10", PF, Freshman
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Trey Lyles' polished offensive game at times makes you forget he's 6'10". He's shown the ability to attack off the bounce, shoot in the mid-range (he hit three jumpers against Louisville) and finish acrobatically around the rim (he had an up-and-under reverse against Ole Miss on Tuesday).
On the side, he's been rebounding at a good rate (10.8 boards per 40 minutes), even though he's spent time out of position at the 3, which his face-up attack has allowed him to do. (He still projects as a 4 at the NBA level.)
Lyles is also a high IQ passer and decision-maker, which plays a bit to his likability.
He has some limitations as an athlete and defender, but his blend of size, offensive versatility and intelligence should be NBA-friendly.
17. Milwaukee Bucks: Montrezl Harrell, Louisville, 6'8", PF, Junior
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After a fairly quiet game against Kentucky (nine points, eight rebounds), Montrezl Harrell bounced back Monday with a monster performance at Wake Forest, going for 25 points and 13 boards and hitting a pair of three-pointers.
Harrell's shooting stroke still remains a work in progress, but his presence in the paint is no joke. He's shooting an insane 88.2 percent at the rim, thanks to an unstoppable blend of power and explosiveness.
If he eventually improves his jumper, it would only be a bonus. But in 2015, you take him for the activity, energy and productivity he can bring to your interior.
18. Chicago Bulls (via Cleveland): Tyrone Wallace, California, 6'5", PG, Junior
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Tyrone Wallace is experiencing a pretty wild breakout season, averaging 18.8 points, 8.6 boards and 4.2 assists on 38.1 percent shooting from downtown.
He's done it all for California, with Justin Cobbs, last year's ball-dominator, out of the picture. The fact that he's 6'5" and only six players in the country have grabbed more defense rebounds speaks to his athleticism and activity level.
Lightning-quick off the dribble, Wallace is at his best attacking ball screens and getting into the lane, where he can finish with either hand using scoops, runners and floaters.
He's also done an admirable job of setting the table for teammates, and though his assist numbers aren't eye-opening, Wallace has been forced to look for his shot more frequently with Jabari Bird on the injury shelf.
A disruptive defender and improving shooter who can handle the ball and dish, Wallace could be a target for a Bulls team that lacks backcourt depth.
19. Phoenix Suns: R.J. Hunter, Georgia State, 6'5", SG, Junior
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R.J. Hunter is in the middle of one of the worst shooting slumps you'll see, having missed 52 of 64 three-point attempts over his last eight games.
To his credit, at Georgia State, he's the obvious focal point of every defense he comes across. Few players in the country ultimately enter games as bigger targets.
Anyone who's seen Hunter shoot knows it's only a matter of time before he snaps out of this funk.
If anything, the slump has shown he's still finding ways to contribute when the three-ball isn't falling. Hunter's scoring average remains at 19.5 points per game, and he already has 50 assists after totaling just 57 a season ago.
Either way, when Hunter is feeling it, he makes it easy to picture him knocking down shots off NBA screens and curls.
20. San Antonio Spurs: Caris LeVert, Michigan, 6'7", SG, Junior
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Michigan's disappointing start hasn't helped, but scouts aren't likely to pin it on Caris LeVert, who's received little help.
At 6'7", LeVert leads Michigan in assists with 3.8 per game, which is a reflection of his playmaking ability and overall versatility.
Though he's been a bit erratic as a scorer, he's still averaging 14.8 points while shooting 41.8 percent from downtown.
A missing in-between game (32.1 percent on two-point jumpers) is holding him back, but LeVert's blend of size, athleticism, shooting touch and passing skills should hold enough NBA weight.
21. Boston Celtics (via L.A.C.): Delon Wright, Utah, 6'5", PG, Senior
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Few guards in the country can impact a game from as many angles as Delon Wright, who's helped lead Utah into the top-10 rankings.
Wright plays with excellent poise and pace, with the ability to set the table for teammates and make things happen off the hesitation dribble.
He's a terrific decision-maker—Wright turns the ball over just 1.7 times per game while shooting a ridiculous 57.3 percent from the floor. Though not the best shooter, he has a knack for tossing the ball in the hoop with an array of runners and floaters on the move.
However, of all his strengths, Wright's defensive tools and instincts might ultimately hold the most NBA value. At 6'5", he's long and pesky, and he's averaging more than two steals per game for the second straight year.
The Celtics drafted Marcus Smart last June, and though he'll eventually become a good pro, he may not be the team's long-term answer at point guard.
Wright might not be either, but he's a more natural fit at the position.
22. Los Angeles Lakers (via Houston): Christian Wood, UNLV, 6'11", PF/C, Sophomore
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The draft buzz surrounding Christian Wood has seemed to have strengthened by the week, following his string of 20-plus-point games that started against Arizona on December 23.
ESPN's Jeff Goodman recently noted the NBA's growing interest, given his athleticism, length and inside-out skill set.
At 6'11", Wood is a bouncy big man and mismatch on the perimeter, where he can face his man up and attack off the bounce.
He's also hit 12 three-pointers on the year, showcasing some intriguing stretch potential that's bound to open NBA eyes.
Down low, Wood brings in 9.6 rebounds and blocks 2.9 shots per game, a reflection of his above-the-rim presence and activity level.
He's a project, and he definitely needs to bulk up big time, but the reward could be worth the time it takes to develop his two-way talent.
23. Washington Wizards: Sam Dekker, Wisconsin, 6'9", SF, Junior
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At this point, Sam Dekker's stats won't hold much weight with scouts. Wisconsin shares the ball as well as anyone, and Dekker plays to the system.
He projects as your textbook role-playing glue guy—the one who makes the right pass, hits the open shot and tracks down the loose ball.
Having added to his frame and even grown to 6'9", Dekker is finishing inside the arc at a better rate this season, shooting 60 percent on two-pointers, up from 55 percent a season ago.
Dekker's limitations as a playmaker hold his ceiling in check, but his high-IQ brand of ball and physical tools for the position should stand out once all the flashy names are off the board.
24. Toronto Raptors: Robert Upshaw, Washington, 7'0", C, Junior
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After transferring from Fresno State (where he was suspended twice), Robert Upshaw has come out of nowhere to emerge as the nation's top shot-blocker, averaging 4.6 per game in only 22.7 minutes.
He's sporting an absurd 17.4 percent block percentage. It's still early, but nobody has finished a season with a number that high since 2011.
Upshaw clearly has the physical tools at 7'0", 250 pounds, but he's flashed even stronger defensive instincts as a rim-protector, which is ultimately how he'll be selling himself to the pros.
Offensively, he's limited as a shot creator, though he's shown the ability to finish at awkward angles while averaging 11.1 points on 59.8 percent shooting.
Upshaw will face Utah twice and Arizona once before the regular season is up. Strong showings against those front lines could ultimately propel his name further up draft boards.
25. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Bulls): Justin Anderson, Virginia, 6'6", SG, Junior
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At first, it just looked like a hot streak. But now we've moved into conference play, and Justin Anderson is still shooting 58.8 percent from downtown on 2.3 three-point makes per game.
He's already made as many threes this season as he did all of last.
At 6'6", Anderson has good size and athleticism for an NBA 2-guard, and as long as he's able to convince scouts this new-and-improved jumper is for real, it won't matter if the rest of his 15.1-point-per-game scoring attack translates.
Look for Anderson to draw late-round interest from team's seeking out potential three-and-D snipers.
26. Dallas Mavericks: Cedi Osman, Macedonia, 6'6", PG/SG, 1995
26 of 30At 19 years old, Cedi Osman has been a standout for Anadolu Efes, particularly as of late, having racked up at least 14 points and three assists in three of his last five games.
At 6'6", he has excellent size and a nifty handle to go with a threatening shooting stroke. He's hitting on 36.4 percent of his three-point attempts.
Osman received some good experience this summer playing for Turkey in the FIBA Basketball World Cup, and he's following through by breaking out as one of the top young prospects overseas.
27. Memphis Grizzlies: Ron Baker, Wichita State, 6'3", PG/SG, Junior
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Ron Baker has been the man for Wichita State with Cleanthony Early in the pros, and it's allowed his NBA attributes to shine.
More than just a lights-out shooter (2.5 threes made per game, 40.7 percent), Baker handles the ball, makes the right pass and locks in defensively.
Over his last two games against Illinois State and Drake, he's hit 15 of 23 shots, and he's now averaging 16.7 points on 47.7 percent shooting.
The Kirk Hinrich comparison could be a good one.
28. Brooklyn Nets (via Atlanta): Terry Rozier, Louisville, 6'1", PG, Sophomore
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Terry Rozier continues to light up the scoreboard for Louisville, averaging 21.2 points over his last seven games.
The only problem is that he finished with one or zero assists in five of those games, and at 6'1", Rozier doesn't exactly project as an NBA 2-guard.
Regardless, his electric athleticism, defensive tenacity and presence on the boards should keep him in the conversation. He's averaging 5.6 rebounds and 2.3 steals per game to go with some blow-by quickness and a passable jumper.
Louisville has let Chris Jones do most of the ball-handling, so it's possible Rozier's playmaking ability has gone hidden, which could make him a steal this late. But until we see it in action, the late first round seems like a safer projection.
29. Portland Trail Blazers: Dakari Johnson, Kentucky, 7'0", C, Sophomore
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Dakari Johnson's role has been limited, as he takes just 4.5 shots per game, but at this stage, we pretty much understand what he does and doesn't bring to the table.
At 7'0", 255 pounds, he's shooting 60.3 percent, grabbing 5.9 boards and blocking 1.2 shots in only 18 minutes per night.
Johnson makes a living right at the rim. He doesn't have the best hands, but he plays through contact and scores over his shoulder.
Offensively, he's pretty limited, but his improved mobility and physical presence could serve a purpose alone.
30. Golden State Warriors: Jake Layman, Maryland, 6'10", SF, Junior
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Jake Layman's development has played a major role in Maryland's 2014-15 resurgence as a top-15 program. And he's flashed some glimpses of pro potential in the process.
At 6'10", Layman has that attractive size and 40.4 percent three-point stroke for a projected small forward.
He's not a great one-on-one scorer, but he plays with excellent control and does a nice job of opportunistically finishing the plays that come his way.
The further he ultimately takes Maryland up the rankings, the better chance he'll have at keeping and building up the buzz.
All advanced and basis stats courtesy of Hoop-Math.com and Sports-Reference.com. International stats courtesy of RealGM.com.
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