Ranking the Most Undervalued Targets on the 2015 NBA Trade Market
The NBA trade winds are already blowing, as evidenced by the unforeseen gust that transported Dion Waiters to the Oklahoma City Thunder and sent J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Jan. 5.
All three of the principals in that deal are in new locales despite huge, neon, strobing question marks—proof that all assets are movable.
Not every deal needs to involve such high-risk components, though. Better to isolate the quiet, underappreciated commodities of the NBA, the ones whose salaries and/or reputations fall short of their potential value.
We'll need parameters: To make our list of undervalued trade targets, players must be available, linked to a rumor at some point this season and, of course, deserving of the "bargain" label. Contracts will factor in, but not all of our candidates will come cheap.
Overpaid—or even properly compensated—players don't fit here. So forget about the likes of Brook Lopez, Deron Williams and Jeff Green.
It's all about isolating talent at below-market rates, finding fits for specific role players and, above all else, buying low.
Let's hunt some deals.
5. Andrei Kirilenko, Philadelphia 76ers
1 of 5
As you can tell from Andrei Kirilenko's inclusion on this list, the line between complete lost cause and undervalued asset is blurry.
After playing 36 minutes over seven games for the Brooklyn Nets this year, he was shipped to the Philadelphia 76ers in a salary dump. Being coveted by the Sixers is as damning a statement as can be made about a player; their rebuilding process has been marked by the accumulation of assets that (they hope) will not, in any way, lead to wins this season.
It is therefore not a surprise that Kirilenko has yet to play a game for Philly. He hasn't even reported to the team.
"His situation is different," Sixers head coach Brett Brown told Aaron Falk of The Salt Lake Tribune. "He’s at a stage of his career with family and so on. You respect his family situation. If he were to come here, he could provide … where do you begin? He’s a great player. He’s a good person. He plays defense. He can pass. His resume is of length. He’s got so much experience."
If Kirilenko isn't going to play this season, he goes from being a potential bargain buy to, well, nothing.
However, if he indicates a willingness to suit up, you can bet the Sixers would happily flip him for another couple of second-rounders. It's what they do.
AK-47 may be out of ammo these days, but it's hard to be sure. He's only 33, he shot over 50 percent last season, and he posted a 17.6 player efficiency rating in a starting role for the Minnesota Timberwolves two years ago, per Basketball-Reference.com.
At a cost of next to nothing and with the potential to bring versatility, defense and efficient scoring, Kirilenko is as undervalued as trade targets get.
The only reason he ranks at the bottom of our list is the decent chance he won't play at all.
4. Timofey Mozgov, Denver Nuggets
2 of 5
Though the Cleveland Cavaliers addressed their needs for shoelace-untying shenanigans and injury-plagued defenders who have yet to consistently deliver—Smith and Shumpert, respectively—they still lack a big man or two.
That's where Timofey Mozgov comes in—a 28-year-old, 7'1" center averaging 8.5 points and 7.8 rebounds for the Denver Nuggets.
Per Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports, the Cavs are interested. They should be; Mozgoz is an imposing presence inside, and what he lacks in mobility, he makes up for with length and pointy elbows. He is angular, not agile.
We know Mozgov is on the market because he's instituted a policy of silence on trade talk among his pals.
"My friends talk about it, but I just say, ‘If you’re talking, don’t invite me, OK?'” Mozgov said, per Chris Tomasson of the Denver Post. “It’s simple. They can talk about it with each other, but I know nothing about it.”
Denver is a lottery team, has a negative per-game differential and has seen its once-dominant play at home level off. And because the Nugs are going nowhere in a crowded Western Conference this season, it would behoove them to think about the future, which means getting promising rookie center Jusuf Nurkic as many minutes as possible.
Mozgov has major value to the right team (like the Cavs), but he's not what the Nuggets need right now. With a salary of just $4.6 million this season and a team option for 2015-16, his deal's cap friendly.
If all it takes for the Cavs to land him is their $5.2 million trade exception and a pick, that's a deal well worth swinging.
Every contender with a need up front should be angling for a quality big man like Mozgov.
3. Wilson Chandler, Denver Nuggets
3 of 5
Wilson Chandler, Mozgov's teammate, is just as overlooked and even more valuable as a trade target.
Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated reported in December that, according to league sources, the Oklahoma City Thunder had inquired about Chandler. The addition of Waiters to an already crowded wing rotation would seem to rule OKC out of any present Chandler sweepstakes, but that certainly doesn't mean we should assume the 27-year-old wing is off the market.
Chandler is huge for a perimeter player, 6'8" and rangy. He's a decent three-point shooter, can handle the ball a bit and has the length to bother matchups at multiple positions. Best of all, he makes a reasonable $6.8 million this year and $7.1 million in 2015-16 before his contract expires.
He is precisely the kind of rotation-quality swingman who could solidify a contender's depth chart, and it won't cost an arm and a leg to get him.
2. Kosta Koufos, Memphis Grizzlies
4 of 5
Kosta Koufos' per-36-minute production is just as good as Mozgov's, but the Memphis Grizzlies' backup center has the added value of being three years younger, a better defender and roughly two-thirds the cost of the Nuggets' big man.
ESPN.com's Marc Stein called Koufos "one of the league's more underrated interior defenders," so let's all agree the Cavs and a score of other squads could use him.
Not only that, but Koufos' minutes are extremely limited because he plays behind MVP candidate Marc Gasol. This depresses his stats and probably also drives down his price.
You'd have to assume the Grizzlies know how valuable Koufos is. But if he's only ever going to see spot minutes behind Gasol, Memphis would be wise to flip him for an asset that could strengthen one of its weaker areas.
Perimeter shooting, as ever, is a need for the Grizz. They're in the middle of the pack in terms of three-point accuracy but rank 28th in the league in makes, per NBA.com.
Koufos is a starter-quality big on a dirt-cheap deal whose current team can't get the most out of his talent because of the guy playing ahead of him. He's a terrific option for an opportunistic team willing to trust his production will hold up in a larger role.
1. Goran Dragic, Phoenix Suns
5 of 5
Including Goran Dragic, an All-NBA performer last year, on a list of undervalued trade targets seems crazy, right?
Everyone should know how good this guy is, and with free agency coming up this summer, any team trading for him now would risk losing him for nothing. That's a major concern.
But here's the thing: Dragic's numbers are down because of the Phoenix Suns' three's-a-crowd setup at point guard, and rival general managers have been calling with offers to simplify the situation since mid-December, per CBSSports.com's Ken Berger.
Is there immense risk in trading for Dragic? Yes.
Will he be costlier than anybody else we've named so far? Absolutely.
Could he just walk away as a free agent? Affirmative.
But his value, relative to his production, may never be lower. The Suns would hate to lose him for nothing, and if a decent offer came along that could remove that possibility from their future, they'd consider it. In fact, we know they'd consider it because as Berger reported, they're listening to offers.
Dragic is a borderline superstar stuck in a stifling situation. Put him in charge of an offense where he's the primary ball-handler, and he'll wreak havoc. He's twice—maybe three times—the player anyone else we've listed is. This is the time to target him, when there's a sliver of a chance he could be had for much less than his market value.
That's why, even though he'll come at a higher price than the bargains we've listed so far, he's well worth it.
