Oregon Football: Ducks' Keys to Victory vs. Ohio State

There have been 845 college football games played this season. None of them holds a candle to No. 846 in Arlington, Texas.

The Oregon Ducks and Ohio State Buckeyes will face off in the inaugural College Football Playoff National Championship on Jan. 12. The Buckeyes (13-1) are coming off of two wildly impressive performances against Wisconsin and Alabama.

Meanwhile, Oregon (13-1) has been the hottest team in the country over the past two months. The Ducks have demolished their past nine opponents by an average of 27 points per game, including a 39-point beatdown of Florida State in the Rose Bowl.

According to Odds Shark, the Ducks are 6.5-point favorites over the Buckeyes. The Power Rank, a site founded by Bleacher Report’s own Ed Feng, calculates that the Ducks will beat Ohio State by 5.6 points at a neutral site. Moreover, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Ducks a 62.8 percent chance of beating Ohio State.

The Ducks may be favored, but they’re far from a lock to beat Ohio State. In fact, these two programs nearly mirrored each other this season.

The biggest difference between these two teams right now is the experience of their starting quarterbacks. Oregon QB Marcus Mariota, the 2014 Heisman Trophy winner, will be starting his 41st consecutive game for the Ducks.

On the other side of the field, Cardale Jones, Ohio State’s third-string quarterback, will only be starting his third game as the Buckeyes QB. That being said, Jones has been dynamic in leading his team to the national title game.

This game is sure to be an instant classic as the Buckeyes and Ducks look to make history at AT&T Stadium.

Here are the keys to the game for the Oregon Ducks as they attempt to bring home the first national championship in school history.

Force Turnovers

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The Ducks may be known nationally for their glitzy jerseys, their high-flying offense or their Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, but it is their underappreciated defense that has turned them into a true championship contender.

Despite the fact that the Ducks allowed 528 yards of offense to the Seminoles in the Rose Bowl, the defense forced five costly turnovers, all of which were converted into points—31 in all.

That’s been Oregon’s modus operandi all season long. The Ducks will bend, in some cases a little bit too much this season, but they rarely break. Moreover, their ability to sniff out the ball and cause turnovers has been one of the biggest reasons for Oregon’s success this season.

The Oregon defense has forced 30 turnovers this season, No. 10 in the nation, and the Ducks are the No. 1 team in the country in turnover margin. More importantly, according to ESPN’s Brian Fremeau, the Ducks lead the country in turnover value, which is a calculated value of each turnover event in terms of scoring opportunities gained and lost according to field position value.

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The Ducks not only led the nation in turnover value generated this year, they obliterated the competition. Oregon earned 88.2 points in net scoring value off turnovers this year, 27 percent more than the second-best team, Georgia Tech, and 136 percent more than Ohio State (18th best in generating turnover value).

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One of the things Oregon does better than any other team in the country is capitalize on turnovers. Oregon’s job on defense is to simply get the ball back to Marcus Mariota and Company. From there, the frenetic pace of the offense and its ability to score quickly make opposing teams quit. Just ask Florida State.

The Buckeyes, while potent themselves offensively, have turned the ball over 22 times this season. The Ducks defense will have opportunities to strike against Cardale Jones and Company.

If Oregon is able to win the turnover battle, there’s a good chance it'll be flying back to Eugene with some new hardware.

Tempo, Tempo, Tempo

While some would argue that Oregon’s greatest offense weapon in Marcus Mariota, it’s really the tempo at which the offense plays that is key.

As ESPN.com’s Gene Wojciechowski explains, Oregon’s tempo is so exhausting that it can cause defending national champions to simply quit.

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Not with an offense that runs plays as fast as hummingbirds flap their wings. It's exhausting (and exhilarating) just watching the Ducks' offense. Just think if you had to keep up with it. Or stop it.

Oregon toyed with Florida State's defense. Overpowered it. Ran by it. By the end, the Seminoles did the unthinkable: They gave up. Just flat-out quit.

That's what the Ducks can do to you. They sap your heart, deplete your oxygen supply, then break your will. About half of Florida State's players were too tired even to shake the Ducks' hands after the 59-20 semifinal rout.

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Oregon is renowned for its uptempo offense, but it seems like the tempo gets ratcheted up when the Ducks smell blood.

In the Rose Bowl, Oregon found itself with a 32-20 lead midway through the third quarter. The Ducks could smell the victory; they just needed one more score. Florida State’s offense took the field and was driving until running back Dalvin Cook fumbled after getting a first down. Oregon recovered, and two plays and 21 seconds the later Mariota found Darren Carrington streaking to the end zone. The game was over.

Oregon offensive coordinator Scott Frost thought the Ducks had a huge advantage in terms of tempo against Florida State. However, he’s skeptical that the Ducks will have a similar advantage against Ohio State. 

"I thought we had a really big advantage with our tempo in the last game,” said Frost, according to Rob Moseley of GoDucks.com. “I thought we were in a lot better shape than the team we played in the Rose Bowl. I don’t know if we’ll have quite that advantage against (Ohio State); they see tempo all the time. They look like they’re in condition. So we’re not expecting to have the same advantage in this one."

The Ducks may not have a huge advantage in terms of tempo against Ohio State, but there’s no way Ohio State’s defense has ever faced an offense that moves as quickly as Oregon’s.

If the Ducks smell blood, they’ll turn to tempo to put the game out of reach.

Win the Trenches

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Oregon’s offensive line has often been criticized this year for its subpar play and for good reason. Mariota has been sacked 29 times this season. However, most of the O-line issues can be attributed to the numerous injuries the Ducks have suffered this season.

However, since left tackle Jake Fisher returned nine games ago, the Ducks O-line has been magnificent.

As Grantland’s Matt Hinton explained last week, Oregon’s offensive line is ranked No. 1 in the nation in Adjusted Line Yards despite having been pelted with numerous costly injuries this year. 

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…offensive line, a long-in-the-tooth group that managed to rank no. 1 nationally in Adjusted Line Yards despite a succession of injuries that sidelined two veteran starters (Tyler Johnstone and AndreYruretagoyena) for all or most of the season and two others (Jake Fisher and Hroniss Grasu) for multiple games. With the exception ofJohnstone, who tore his ACL in the preseason and hasn’t played at all, the O-line depth chart for Thursday is fully intact for the first time since September.

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The O-line did not allow a sack in the Rose Bowl and continuously gave Mariota time to make plays down the field. Moreover, the O-line led the charge as the Ducks ran all over the Seminoles to the tune of 301 yards.

Oregon’s offensive line will be challenged by Ohio State. The Buckeyes rank No. 8 in the country in sacks (43) and allow a paltry 333.6 yards per game, which ranks them No. 17 nationally.

Additionally, Ohio State’s defense possesses some of the most talented and athletic defenders in the country. Joey Bosa, Ohio State’s best defender, comes in with 13.5 sacks on the season. Freshman Darron Lee and senior Michael Bennett are also a handful.

However, with Jake Fisher in the lineup, the Ducks are simply a different team. Without Fisher, the Ducks averaged 158 yards per game on the ground, scored zero rushing touchdowns and gave up 12 sacks in two games. In the 12 games with Fisher, the Ducks have averaged 255.8 yards per game on the ground, scored 3.5 touchdowns per game on the ground and have only allowed 17 sacks.

The Ducks O-line will need to play their best game of the season against Ohio State. If they do, the Ducks offense will likely sail pretty smoothly.

Run, Run, Run

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The Ducks wouldn’t be in the position they're in without the play of Marcus Mariota. That much is a given. That being said, Oregon’s offense is predicated on the ability to run the ball at will.

While the running game may not have gained as many yards this season as compared to a few years ago with LaMichael James, Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas, it’s been equally as effective.

The Ducks rank No. 18 in the country with 241.9 yards per game and rank No. 12 with 5.54 yards per carry.

Oregon has depended heavily on true freshman Royce Freeman this year. Not only has the young kid stepped up, but he’s been one of the best running backs in the country. On the season, Freeman has rushed for 1,343 yards and 18 touchdowns. 

Obviously, Marcus Mariota’s ability to run out of the backfield is huge for the Ducks as well. The Heisman Trophy winner has rushed for 731 yards and 15 touchdowns this season.

While the Ducks featured a two-headed monster of Mariota and Freeman for a large portion of the season, it looks like sophomore Thomas Tyner is finally healthy. He contributed in a huge way in the Rose Bowl and may be an X-factor heading into the title game.

Against FSU, Tyner rushed for 124 yards on 12 carries—an average of 9.5 yards per carry—and scored two touchdowns.

Ben Kercheval of Bleach Report claims the Ducks have the best backfield in college football. He may be right.

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The reality is Oregon hasn't been that team with the fancy uniforms and gimmicky offense for some time. The Ducks have added strength over the past few years in recruiting. But sometimes, it takes a big spotlight to shine a light on those efforts. 

"Everyone talks about their shovel passes, or whatever," Ohio State coach Urban Meyer told George Schroeder of USA Today. "It's not that. There's a culture out there that has been started."

Because of those efforts, no other team can match Oregon's backfield. By the time the semifinal game was nearing its end, the Ducks were beating down Florida State with reserves.

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It’s important that the Ducks establish a solid running attack early against Ohio State. The Buckeyes defense ranks No. 34 in the country in rush defense and No. 43 in yards allowed per carry.

The Ducks need to be multidimensional on offense. When Oregon’s rushing attack is contained, the entire offense suffers. It will be on Freeman, Tyner and Mariota to make sure that doesn’t happen.

Contain Ezekiel Elliott

While Cardale Jones and Ohio State’s passing attack is dangerous, it’s the Buckeyes' running back who should be more of a concern for Oregon’s defense.

Sophomore Ezekiel Elliott burst onto the scene this year and has become one of the best backs in the entire country. On the season, Elliott has rushed for 1,632 yards on 237 carries—an average of 6.9 yards per carry—and has scored 14 touchdowns.

While he’s been fantastic all season, he’s been at his best in the two games since the Buckeyes lost starting quarterback J.T. Barrett. In the past two games, against Wisconsin and Alabama, Elliott has 40 carries for 450 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

The two performances are nearly identical. Against Wisconsin, Elliott has 20 carries for 220 yards and two touchdowns. Against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, he had 20 carries for 230 yards and two touchdowns.

Ohio State, as a whole, is one of the best rushing offenses in the country. On the year it is averaging 262.2 yards per game on the ground, ranked No. 10 nationally, and gains 5.84 yards per carry, which also ranks No. 10 in the country.

Meanwhile, Oregon’s defense is allowing 156.1 yards per game on the ground, ranked No. 51, and is allowing 4.15 yards per carry, ranked No. 52.

However, as Grantland’s Matt Hinton explains, Oregon’s defense may not look outstanding when you use standard statistics, but advanced analytics tell a different story: "According to the advanced-stat wizards at Football Outsiders, Oregon has fielded a top-10 defense this season by both of the site’s big-picture defensive measures, F/+ and S&P+."

Oregon’s defense has faced the third most plays in college football this season—it's seen 123 more plays than Ohio State. The sheer amount of plays the Ducks have to face has made them look less than stellar in terms of common statistics (i.e. yards, points, etc.). Moreover, Oregon’s ability to close out games early means that opposing teams often score garbage-time touchdowns against the Ducks’ second-string defense.

When you factor in those two caveats, as well as Oregon’s strength of schedule, Oregon’s defense turns into one of the 10 best in the nation.

Over the past six games, the Ducks have held opposing offenses to 135 yards per game on the ground and have only let up five rushing touchdowns.

They’ll need to play well against Elliott. If they’re not able to slow him down, Ohio State may be able to control the game from start to finish.

Don't Let Jones Beat You Deep

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While Cardale Jones may be Ohio State’s third-string quarterback, he hasn’t played like one so far.

Jones’ greatest strengths are his demeanor and his ability to throw a great deep ball.

Ohio State has a couple of very talented receivers in seniors Devin Smith and Evan Spencer, as well as sophomore Michael Thomas. All three possess the ability to high-point the football and come down with deep passes. Jones throws a gorgeous deep ball and will not be scared to throw at the Ducks, as they’ll be missing their All-American cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu.

Oregon cornerback Troy Hill, who replaced Ekpre-Olomu as Oregon’s No. 1 cornerback, says Ohio State’s receivers seem faster than Florida State’s and that the Buckeyes really try to stretch the field with Jones’ arm, according to Bruce Feldman of Fox Sports.

Jones’ Ohio State teammates seem to have all of the confidence in the world in him. According to defensive lineman Michael Bennett, Jones is built to be an NFL quarterback.

"You see Cardale, and he's built to be a professional quarterback," Bennett said, according to ESPN.com’s Brian Bennett. "He makes great decisions, he can run the ball when he needs to, and he's got a cannon for an arm—and it's getting more and more accurate every day. He's also got a lot of poise and leadership qualities, so when he goes in there, you're not worried. You're just ready for him to score a touchdown."

While Jones has certainly come on strong as of late, there’s something to be said for experience. Mariota has made 40 starts for the Ducks, has 1,130 pass attempts, 10,453 yards and 103 passing touchdowns. Jones, on the other hand, has 71 pass attempts, 618 yards and six passing touchdowns on the season.

Jones made a couple of shaky throws against Alabama early on in the game before he settled down. Oregon’s defense has capitalized on turnovers all season long. If they’re able to get pressure on Jones and get him off his game early, the Ducks will be sitting pretty.

That being said, there’s no way the Ducks should underestimate Jones. He’s just as talented as Braxton Miller or J.T. Barrett.

Fast, Hard, FINISH!

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Oregon’s motto is “Win The Day.” Above the “Win The Day” logo there are three words: Fast, Hard, Finish. The Ducks have never needed a win more than this one. They have to finish.

The Ducks have been in the national championship game before. They lost to Auburn in the 2010 BCS National Championship 22-19 on a last-second field goal.

While the Ducks will probably have more opportunities in the future to win a national title, this may be their best chance. They have the best player in the country in Marcus Mariota and have the requisite playmakers to win the title.

If they don’t get it done on Jan. 12, the window may close for a bit. The Ducks have one hand locked around the trophy, but in order to finally bring it home to Eugene, they’re going to need to play their best game of the season. 

We know the Ducks will play fast. We know the Ducks will play hard. But will they finish off the best season in school history? We’ll know after 60 more minutes of football.

Statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise stated. All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise stated.

Jason Gold is Bleacher Report’s lead Oregon writer. Follow Jason on Twitter @TheSportsGuy33.