Daily Fantasy Football: FanDuel, DraftKings Optimal 2015 Divisional Lineups
The Wild Card Round proved that picking a postseason one-week fantasy lineup is a whole different ballgame. With the quality of competition raised, even the surest stars aren't necessarily as bankable commodities as they are in the regular season. For owners who built their lineups around the likes of Ben Roethlisberger or Dez Bryant, picking the wrong stars likely left them empty-handed.
But with four more games on tap during the Divisional Round, this weekend will provide a chance to recoup (or add to) your earnings. The issue will be constructing a lineup around these defenses, as six of the eight squads ranked in the top 12 in terms of yards per play allowed.
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Still, there are some sneaky favorable matchups to work with, even as the talent level has risen another level. Using the standard prices from FanDuel and DraftKings, let's take a look at the optimal lineup you can set for next weekend.
FanDuel
| QB | Peyton Manning, DEN | $9,100 |
| RB | C.J. Anderson, DEN | $8,700 |
| RB | Boom Herron, IND | $6,100 |
| WR | Jordy Nelson, GB | $9,000 |
| WR | Brandon LaFell, NE | $6,800 |
| WR | Hakeem Nicks, IND | $5,400 |
| TE | Julius Thomas, DEN | $5,500 |
| K | Mason Crosby, GB | $4,600 |
| DEF | Panthers | $4,800 |
The FanDuel lineup boasts a decidedly Orange Crush feel to it, as there are three Broncos in this projection. Considering that Denver gets a relatively benign matchup at home against the Indianapolis Colts, however, there is very little downside to playing the Broncos trio.
Despite the hullabaloo surrounding Peyton Manning's mysterious injury and diminished production, the 38-year-old signal-caller will get to face a Colts defense that he has already shredded for 269 yards and three touchdowns back in Week 1. Moreover, though Manning's home-road splits are concerning over the long run, he has been his typically dominant self at Mile High:
| Home | 21-4 | 70.2 | 8.77 | 9.68 | 117.5 |
| Road | 18-11 | 63.0 | 7.25 | 6.85 | 89.0 |
The primary beneficiary of Manning's production could be Julius Thomas, as Demaryius Thomas will likely draw shutdown Indy corner Vontae Davis. Though the tight end Thomas has compiled a meager three catches since spraining his ankle back in Week 11, the bye week has apparently aided his recovery process:
If he can go full speed, Thomas will get a juicy matchup against a Colts defense that has been the sixth-worst at defending opposing tight ends, based on Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted DVOA metric. Thomas is quite simply an athletic mismatch against an Indy back seven lacking in fluid coverage linebackers or box safeties, making him a prime threat to return to the end zone.
As bad as the Colts are defending tight ends, they have fared even worse against running backs in coverage, ranking 31st by DVOA. That should buttress C.J. Anderson's production on the ground, as the second-year pro compiled 34 receptions during the regular season. In addition, Anderson scored seven red-zone rushing touchdowns during the regular season, sixth-most in the league, while Indy gave up 14 red-zone rushing TDs, also sixth-most in the league, per Pro-Football-Reference. Like Thomas, Anderson is a strong threat to reach the end zone.
On the other side, Daniel "Boom" Herron should continue receiving the lion's share of the carries after compiling 141 total yards on 6.4 yards per touch in the Wild Card Round. Herron has been significantly more effective than nominal starter Trent Richardson all season, and despite a bout of fumbilitis, Chuck Pagano has suggested that Herron will continue to dominate the touches out of the backfield:
Denver isn't necessarily a great matchup, but the Colts figure to move the ball well, as they totaled 408 yards while scoring touchdowns on all four red-zone trips in Week 1 against the Broncos. Herron should receive his share of scoring opportunities, and sheer volume of touches will give his yardage totals a relatively high floor.
Wrapping up with a nice sleeper pick, New England's Brandon LaFell appears poised to feast against a wretched Baltimore Ravens secondary. When defenses turn their attention to Rob Gronkowski in the red zone, LaFell has been the primary beneficiary, recording five red-zone touchdowns, most among Patriots wide receivers, per PFR. Given that the Patriots figure to air out the ball against a stout Baltimore Ravens front seven, expect LaFell to rack up high yardage totals in a favorable matchup against Rashaan Melvin.
DraftKings
| QB | Aaron Rodgers, GB | $8,900 |
| RB | Eddie Lacy, GB | $7,200 |
| RB | Justin Forsett, BAL | $5,400 |
| WR | Jordy Nelson, GB | $8,300 |
| WR | Brandon LaFell, NE | $6,000 |
| WR | Hakeem Nicks, IND | $3,100 |
| TE | Dwayne Allen, IND | $3,500 |
| FLEX | Jonathan Stewart, CAR | $4,800 |
| D/ST | Panthers | $2,700 |
As with FanDuel, the DraftKings lineup has loaded up on a single team. In this instance, the value lies with the Green Bay Packers, who get to face the most generous defense of the week in the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas conceded 5.8 yards per play during the regular season, seventh-worst in the league, while the Packers averaged 6.67 yards per play at home, best in the league.
The driving force behind those gaudy stats has been Aaron Rodgers. The potential MVP represents this week's safest source of fantasy production; not only does Rodgers get the softest matchup of any quarterback, but he is also on an historic streak at Lambeau Field:
The primary beneficiary from Rodgers' production figures to be Jordy Nelson. Slot receiver Randall Cobb will likely draw top Dallas corner Orlando Scandrick on the majority of downs, meaning that Nelson will get to feast against Brandon Carr. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Carr allowed six touchdowns (ninth-most among corners) and 1.41 yards per coverage snap, which ranked 56th out of 73 qualified cornerbacks.
Finally, Eddie Lacy should round out this Packers troika as a safe source of touchdowns. Since Week 10, Lacy has scored nine touchdowns, second-most among running backs in that span behind only C.J. Anderson. The Cowboys rank 23rd against the run by DVOA and allowed 13 rushing touchdowns during the regular season, eighth-most in the league. The entire Green Bay offense is generally a mismatch for the Cowboys defense, so expect the skill-position players to cash in.
With that trio as your pillar, you'll need some high-upside value plays to complement them. Baltimore's Justin Forsett is a nice option against a Patriots defense that has allowed 12 total touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. This selection might initially be head-scratching; though New England's run defense ranks are middling, they've allowed just 3.29 yards per rush attempt in the second half of the year, second-best in the league in that span.
However, the Pats have continued to have issues covering running backs, as only the Raiders and Eagles allowed more receiving touchdowns to opposing backs this season. Forsett compiled 44 catches this season; with the strength of the Patriots secondary, don't be surprised if he's featured heavily as a screen-game option.
Additionally, a pair of Colts targets, Hakeem Nicks and Dwayne Allen, represent touchdown-vulturing options. Though T.Y. Hilton, Coby Fleener and Reggie Wayne have headlined the Colts receiving corps this season statistically, it's actually Nicks that leads the Colts in red-zone targets, with 14 total during the regular season, per PFR. Though he still hasn't recaptured the form he flashed with the Giants, Nicks has rebounded after a midseason slump, notching 15 catches on 20 targets over his past three games.
Allen is a much riskier play, but his price is a bargain in comparison to Fleener. Allen found a bit of a groove in the Wild Card Round, catching all three of his targets for 30 yards. It appears as though the third-year tight end has recovered from a knee injury that hampered him at the end of the season, so expect him to start splitting targets with Fleener. That doesn't guarantee he'll outproduce Fleener, but at this price, Allen is a nice value play for someone who has scored eight times this season.
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