Denver Broncos: 3 Key Matchups That Will Decide the Outcome Against the Colts

The last time the Denver Broncos faced a division champion in the AFC divisional playoffs, their season ended with a shocking defeat.

In that game, the Broncos were upset by the Baltimore Ravens in double overtime. Now, two years later, the Broncos are facing an upset-minded Indianapolis Colts team coming off of a 26-10 beatdown of the Cincinnati Bengals.

Denver beat Indianapolis in Week 1, but the game was close. Denver's 31-24 win and Indianapolis' 39-33 win in Week 7 of the 2013 season show that the two teams are fairly evenly matched. The Broncos won't be able to win easily against the Colts.

However, they are expected to take care of business at home. How can they do that? Here are three matchups that will decide the outcome of the game.

Chris Harris or Aqib Talib vs. T.Y. Hilton

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Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is one of the NFL's top quarterbacks, but he lacks the quality weapons around him that Peyton Manning has. 

But Luck has a legitimate star receiver in T.Y. Hilton. Hilton finished with a tremendous 1,345 receiving yards, and Pro Football Focus ranked him 10th among all receivers. 

Sure, he only finished with 41 receiving yards in the team's first game; however, Hilton was targeted 13 times against Cincinnati. He will see the ball often against Denver.

Conversely, Reggie Wayne, who finished the Broncos game with 98 receiving yards, has seen his role significantly decrease. He was targeted just twice against Cincinnati, and expecting him to contribute significantly is unreasonable.

Donte Moncrief caught just 32 passes during the year, so he probably won't see the ball much. Hakeem Nicks picked up just 405 receiving yards all year, so he's not a significant threat either.

With Chris Harris, Aqib Talib and Bradley Roby, the Broncos have the personnel to stop Wayne, Moncrief and Nicks. All three finished in the top 30 (out of 73 qualified corners) in yards against per cover snap, with Harris finishing first, Talib finishing 11th and Roby finishing 29th.

Denver shouldn't have a problem with any Colts receiver but Hilton. Hilton picked up 103 receiving yards against Cincinnati and can turn in a similar effort against Denver. 

But if Harris, PFF's top-rated corner, turns in a good performance, Denver can stop Indianapolis' high-powered passing attack.

Adam Vinatieri and Pat McAfee vs. Connor Barth and Britton Colquitt

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Punters and kickers are perhaps the most underappreciated players in the NFL, but they can make a huge impact in deciding close games.

For instance, Arizona Cardinals punter Drew Butler cost his team last weekend with a plethora of poor punts. Detroit Lions punter Sam Martin's 10-yard punt was critical in Detroit's loss to Dallas. 

The Colts have the good fortune of having a great kicker-punter duo. Forty-two-year-old Adam Vinatieri missed just one field goal all season, and Pat McAfee ranked second among 37 punters. 

As for the Broncos, they have a tremendous kickoff specialist in Brandon McManus and a tremendous field-goal kicker in Connor Barth, but their punting is lacking with Britton Colquitt. McManus was rated third on kickoffs, and Barth made 15 of 16 field goals.

However, Colquitt ranked 23rd among those punters despite kicking in the thin air in Denver. He doesn't have the ability to flip the field like McAfee does.

However, what's more important in this game is the kickers. Barth has attempted 16 field goals in just five games, which is a stunning average of 3.3 attempts per game. At that pace, he would've lined up 53.3 field goals this season, more than 14 attempts clear of the 2014 season leader.

In other words, Barth will be important to make up for Denver's inability to punch the ball into the end zone.

For the Colts, Vinatieri kicked and made all four of his field goals against Cincinnati. Indianapolis' inability to score touchdowns was a bit alarming, and in the Week 1 matchup between the two teams, Indianapolis only scored touchdowns on two of its four red-zone possessions.

If the Colts are unable to cash in like they were in Week 1 and in the Wild Card Game, Vinatieri will be critical. If the Broncos cannot stop their red-zone struggles, Barth will also be necessary.

If Vinatieri's postseason history is any indication, the game might come down to a crucial kick late in the game.

Von Miller vs. Jack Mewhort

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

After right tackle Gosder Cherilus was lost for the season, the Colts shifted rookie guard Jack Mewhort into the right tackle position.

Mewhort, in his third game at right tackle, will have to deal with menacing strong-side linebacker Von Miller on Sunday. Miller picked up 14 sacks during the season and finished second among 4-3 outside linebackers.

The star linebacker should have the upper hand against Mewhort, whose grade against the Bengals was poor. Mewhort gave up a sack in both of his games at tackle, and it's a safe bet that Miller will register a sack.

Indianapolis' offensive line surrendered just 23 sacks all season, though. Denver registered 41 sacks, but it only had three in its last three games. Miller only had one of those sacks, but he should be fully rested after the bye.

Look for a fully rested Miller, who is fully recovered from the ACL injury that he suffered in Week 16 in 2013 that limited him in Week 1, to have a big day. DeMarcus Ware has been limited lately; he had no sacks in December.

Ware will face Anthony Castonzo, who graded as the 12th-best tackle. If the 32-year-old Ware struggles against Castonzo, Miller will be Denver's only hope. Denver's third-place finisher in sacks, Malik Jackson, only had three.

It's possible that Ware duplicates his 1.5-sack performance from Week 1, but the Broncos cannot count on it. Miller will have to wreak havoc on Luck and the Colts to prevent Indianapolis from passing all over Denver's defense.

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