NFL Playoff Picture 2015: Updated Scenarios and Bracket Before Divisional Round

For the second straight year, the NFL postseason looks intent on sticking to the script.

Rather than deviating off course with wild-card upsets, only the Baltimore Ravens managed to triumph on the road, and it helped that the Pittsburgh Steelers played without Le'Veon Bell. With the star running back sidelined, the latest installment of the heated AFC North rivalry cannot be chalked a stunner.

This weekend, it's tough to envision anything but the four well-rested home teams storming past the divisional round. Such an outcome would send three squads to consecutive championship games, while also establishing a marquee rematch.

Before jumping too far ahead, let's examine why the smart money lies in such an outcome.

Playoff Picture

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Fans of the New England Patriots are not appreciating the introduction's potential jinx. After all, they're probably sick of seeing the Baltimore Ravens.

According to ESPN Stats & Info, Baltimore has New England's playoff number, proving a side in its thorn as much as the guys who ruined two Super Bowls.

Now that Joe Flacco improved Baltimore's playoff record to 10-4 with seven road victories under his watch, let the overreactions begin. Head coach John Harbaugh is leading the way, per NFL's Twitter page.

Nope, but no need to waste words arguing an obvious inaccuracy. The Ravens are always a pesky playoff out, but Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata have a little to do with that. Despite allowing 334 passing yards to Ben Roethlisberger, the Ravens sacked him five times and pressured him into tossing two costly picks.

That's exactly what the season's No. 23 passing defense has to do against Tom Brady. Luckily for him, he'll have more help behind a rolling offensive line and running backs that, while not great, are more competent than twice-waived Ben Tate.

New England's No. 17 passing defense is considerably better than Pittsburgh's No. 27 unit, and Bill Belichick's squad netted an NFL-best plus-155 point differential during the season. Meanwhile, Baltimore has yet to beat a winning team other than Pittsburgh.

In order to return to the top of the mountain, Peyton Manning must kill his former love and eliminate the Indianapolis Colts. Some onlookers may use the transitive property to trick themselves into picking the underdogs. Whereas Manning threw four interceptions during a Week 16 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, Andrew Luck walloped them on Wild Card Weekend.

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Don't get too carried away. The Bengals mustered no pass rush on Luck, and poor Andy Dalton had to play without his top two targets in A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham.

Denver's No. 9 passing defense can contain Luck, or at least string together a turnover or two. The offense will probably play better than Dalton, Ryan Hewitt and Rex Burkhead. Probably.

The Carolina Panthers are not beating the Seattle Seahawks. Don't get any ideas based on the defense's recent revival, as tracked by ESPN Stats & Info.

Facing Josh McCown, Brian Hoyer and Ryan Lindley over that stretch helped. Beating four losing teams to win the NFC South and host Lindley's atrocious offense in the playoffs certainly aided their run. Now the fun ends at Seattle, where the league's real elite defense will shut down the Panthers and pulverize a rushing defense that allowed 4.5 yards per carry during the season.

Don't get fooled by the momentum narrative. Seattle is laughably better.

If a road team is going to win, it will be the Dallas Cowboys. As daunting a task as winning a January game at Lambeau is, Dallas brings a 8-0 road record to match the Green Bay Packers' identical mark at home.

Per ESPN Stats & Info, both quarterbacks have dominated in those particular predicaments. 

While the vanishing flag gave Dallas new life against the Detroit Lions, a pivotal fourth-down conversion sealed the deal after Detroit foolishly punted on 4th-and-1. The Cowboys are not still playing because of some league conspiracy, but they looked weak during a nail-biter.

Detroit gained 397 total yards to Dallas' 315, and the Cowboys surrendered 7.7 yards per attempt to Matthew Stafford. The Cowboys have managed to survive their shaky secondary all year, but they'll get squashed by Aaron Rodgers and Co.

For Dallas to win, DeMarco Murray needs more than 75 rushing yards, and Romo will have to outwit Green Bay in a shootout. A similar showing to Sunday from the Cowboys—especially their slow start—will cause them to get blown out. It's more likely Dallas loses a 37-34 classic, and Romo somehow gets the blame.