With Doug Marrone Gone, Time for Buffalo Bills to Find Offensive Identity

The Buffalo Bills ended a decade-long streak of losing seasons by finishing 9-7 in 2015, but it feels like the Bills have taken steps back, not forward.

That's because head coach Doug Marrone told the Bills that he would be exercising the opt-out clause in his contract due to the change in ownership. After changing the direction of the team's trajectory, Marrone's decision leaves the Bills without a direction.

But the time for mourning has passed. It is time to begin the recovery phase.

There may not be much mourning at all. There may be partying. 

Year	2012	2013	2014
Coach	Chan Gailey	Doug Marrone	Doug Marrone
Points/game	21.5	21.2	21.4
TDs/game	2.25	1.94	1.88
Yds/game	342.9	338.1	318.5
Yds/pass att (net)	6.0	5.4	5.8
Yds/rush att	5.0	4.2	3.7
Third down %	39.4	34.3	36.7
Red zone %	55.3	51.2	42
Sacks allowed	30	48	39

The truth is, the Bills may not be much better off now than they were when Marrone took over. 

That's especially true at quarterback, where Bills fans were sold a bill of goods on young quarterback EJ Manuel, who failed to show improvement in 14 games as the starter before being sent to the bench for veteran Kyle Orton, who has recently retired. 

The Bills are also not better off on the offensive line. That's particularly concerning because the offensive line was supposed to be Marrone's strong suit after five years as an NFL offensive line coach and four years as an offensive line coach at the collegiate level. Yet, the Bills regressed in both pass protection and run blocking under Marrone.

The Bills have a talented group of pass-catchers in wide receivers Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods and Chris Hogan and tight end Scott Chandler, but wide receivers do not form an offensive identity on their own. Neither do a soon-to-be 34-year-old running back Fred Jackson and soon-to-be free-agent running back C.J. Spiller.

The Bills must find a quarterback they can depend on and build around him.

Player	Kyle Orton	EJ Manuel
Comp	287	76
Att	447	131
Comp%	64.2	58.0
Yds	3018	838
YPA	6.8	6.4
TD	18	5
INT	10	3
Rate	87.8	80.3
Rushes	15	16
Yds	14	52
Y/R	0.9	3.3
TD	1	1

When Manuel was the quarterback, the Bills ran some read-option in their offense to allow the potential for Manuel to use his athletic ability to hurt defenses. When Orton became the quarterback, that element vanished from their offense, and the Bills turned into a traditional pro-style offense. 

"I think whenever you put someone new in at that position your offensive identity is going to change," Marrone said at the time. "Your goals and how you want to be may not, but at the quarterback position, it's like anything else. Kyle is not going to run around and make any plays with his feet. So you lose that, but you do gain an experienced guy in the pocket who has been playing really well for us."

The Bills didn't gain much from inserting Orton, as they still struggled to move the ball downfield—19 completions on 63 pass attempts (30.2 percent) that traveled 20 yards or more—and punch it in from the red zone (42 percent ranked dead last in the NFL). 

In the end, what they lost was a chance to see if Manuel would ever develop. Fourteen games is hardly enough to form an evaluation as to Manuel's long-term viability. Unfortunately for Manuel, he may never play enough to do so, with the change in regime and the obvious trepidation that would come with reinserting Manuel as the starter.

Of course, the Bills will have to find their next head coach before they can find an offensive direction.

The Bills have already put out feelers on head coaching candidates, including Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter, and Denver Broncos offensive coordinator Adam Gase, according to The Buffalo News' Vic Carucci. 

For a team such as Buffalo, with an established defense and a shaky offense, it makes the most sense to bring in an offensive mind who can help mold that side of the ball and find a defensive coordinator who can help that group maintain its stellar play of the past couple seasons. Both Hamilton and Gase have strong resumes; the Colts and Broncos both ranked in the top 10 in scoring in 2014.

There's already some buzz about Hamilton as a head coaching candidate, with many believing he could be a strong fit to lead a franchise.

As presently constructed, either Hamilton or Gase moving from his current post to the Bills head coaching spot would be like exchanging juicy steak for undercooked chicken. Both men have had far superior quarterback play and overall talent with their respective teams than they would have with Buffalo's current roster. 

But whoever comes in to lead the franchise will already find some pieces in place. As mentioned, the Bills have Watkins, Woods and Hogan at wide receiver, Chandler at tight end and Jackson at running back (perhaps also Spiller, if he is re-signed). 

That being said, whoever takes the reins will also have a big job on his hands: fix the offensive line, develop a quarterback and find a direction and an identity for the Bills offense. 

Unless otherwise noted, all quotes obtained via news release, and all advanced stats provided by ProFootballFocus.com (subscription required) and Pro-Football-Reference.com.

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