Predicting Which NBA Teams Will Be Most Active in Trade Talks to Usher in 2015
If you're looking to save money on your phone bills during 2015, you probably don't want to apply for a front-office gig with one of these eight teams. After all, they're the ones that will be making one call after another during trade season, doing everything possible to swing a deal or two.
Some of these squads are definitive buyers, seeking out pieces who will help complete their rosters and boost them up the standings in their halves of the NBA. Others are sellers, trying to gain future assets and financial flexibility by moving desirable players.
Then there's one team that actually functions as both a buyer and a seller, attempting to take advantage of a stockpile of talent at one position so that it can shore up a weakness that exists elsewhere.
But, regardless of which categories they fall into, all eight are going to be rather busy in the coming weeks, using all their minutes to find ways in which they can change up the construction of their rosters.
Brooklyn Nets
1 of 8
On Sunday, the Brooklyn Nets had a chance to move into the above-.500 club. Instead, they failed to complete a spirited comeback against the reeling Miami Heat, dropping their record to 16-17. They're technically still in the playoff field for the time being, thanks to a pair of three-game win streaks, but this team can't be delusional enough to think it's part of anything but the Eastern Conference morass of mediocrity.
"The Brooklyn Nets have begun reaching out to teams to let them know that former All-Stars Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson are available via trade," reported ESPN.com's Marc Stein and Ohm Youngmisuk on Dec. 10.
Since then, the Nets have gone 8-5, but their thinking still shouldn't have changed.
Of those eight victorious outings, only their final game of 2014—a contest with the Chicago Bulls in the Windy City—came against a team currently slated to advance past the regular season. They've been the beneficiaries of an advantageous schedule, and the contracts of those three former stars still haven't changed.
Brooklyn likely won't make any major deals—with the Andre Kirilenko trade, however minor it may have been, serving as the biggest one of the season. Johnson, Williams and Lopez are just too difficult to move, given the enormity of their contracts and, especially in Lopez's case, the injury history.
But that doesn't mean the Nets won't be active, constantly seeking out an opposing general manager who's somehow willing to help alleviate their bottom line.
Charlotte Hornets
2 of 8
At the beginning of the season, the Charlotte Hornets were a disappointing mess, but they still had time to turn around their campaign of backsliding. The defense was surely going to rebound from its stunning reversal of fortune, and Lance Stephenson was inevitably going to remember how to shoot a basketball.
So much for that. Now, it's much harder to be optimistic.
The Hornets may only be a handful of games out of the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference (thanks, geography), but Stephenson is still out indefinitely as he allows his strained pelvis to heal. Al Jefferson will be out for at least a few more weeks while his strained left groin gets back into tip-top shape. And the rest of the roster simply isn't picking up the slack.
Stephenson was already placed on the block earlier this season, per Stein, though no team was willing to take a chance on the struggling 2-guard. However, don't expect the former Bobcats to just give up on moving him going forward.
This current roster construction isn't going to work, and no one in the Charlotte front office is foolish enough to think otherwise. Whether through a major or minor swap, something is going to be different on the honeycombed hardwood before the end of the trading season.
Cleveland Cavaliers
3 of 8
Even though the Cleveland Cavaliers have now traded Dion Waiters for Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith in a three-team deal that also involved the New York Knicks and Oklahoma City Thunder, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, they still have a major need to fill.
The Cavs are reeling, especially now that Anderson Varejao is out with a ruptured Achilles and LeBron James is missing time to rest his strained left knee and lower back. As if they were struggling to live up to the massive expectations that accompanied this offseason's major moves before, now they're in significant trouble as they draw ever closer to .500, even falling to the lowly Philadelphia 76ers on a night that saw them operate without James and Kyrie Irving.
The biggest issue is still the complete absence of a rim-protecting stalwart on the roster.
According to NBA.com's SportVU data, the Cavaliers are allowing opponents to shoot a scorching 56.1 percent at the rim during the 2014-15 campaign, and that's coming on 23 attempts per game. Only the Minnesota Timberwolves have been worse, giving up 23.1 tries per game at the tin and allowing the opposition to shoot 56.2 percent in that area.
On the entire Cleveland roster, Shawn Marion is the only player holding the other squad to less than 50 percent shooting at the rim. And he's allowing the enemy to convert at a 47.1 percent clip while facing just 1.6 attempts per contest, so that's still not very notable.
Among the players who are actually involved, arbitrarily defined here as those who go up against at least four attempts during the typical contest, Tristan Thompson has been the best. Opponents have made "only" as many shots as they've missed. Behind him is Varejao (54.7 percent but lost for the season) and then Kevin Love (hemorrhaging points at a 60 percent conversion rate).
Something has to change.
Denver Nuggets
4 of 8
The Denver Nuggets are about to get busy.
While this team can have good nights, even beating true contenders like the Memphis Grizzlies by nearly 30 points on Jan. 3, it's rather inconsistent and doesn't have the star power necessary to make a serious run at the postseason in the Western Conference. Depth can be advantageous, but the Nuggets have too many players who are good, though not quite great.
It's time to start parting ways with some of them, beginning with Wilson Chandler, who should be a highly coveted commodity thanks to his athletic scoring, three-point shooting and defensive ability. Per Sports Illustrated's Chris Mannix, the Oklahoma City Thunder called to see if he was available earlier this season, and they surely won't be the last team to do so.
But the Nuggets also have to think about caving and trading Timofey Mozgov. As much as the organization loves him, the quick development of Jusuf Nurkic has made him expendable, and there are plenty of teams who could use a starting-caliber center while chasing the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
"He's a guy that I have confidence throwing the ball inside to," Denver head coach Brian Shaw recently said about Nurkic, per Christopher Dempsey of The Denver Post. "He can post, and he can score. And if he doesn't have that, he's shown the propensity to make plays for his teammates when they cut off him. I think now his teammates are starting to cut harder when he has the ball, because they know he'll pass it."
The 20-year-old big man has admittedly dealt with some fouling issues. But given his development during a season in which the Nuggets seem destined for another lottery pick, there's no reason to keep him, Mozgov and JaVale McGee on the roster at the same time.
Los Angeles Clippers
5 of 8
The Los Angeles Clippers, despite the 23-11 record that somehow leaves them all the way back at No. 6 in the Western Conference, aren't short on needs this season.
"Acquiring a backup big would go a long way toward bridging the gap between DeAndre Jordan's stays on the bench and his returns, but small forward is a bigger need," explains Bleacher Report's Dan Favale. "Strictly by player efficiency rating, the Clippers are getting killed there more than anywhere else, per 82games.com."
When Jordan goes to the pine and is replaced by some combination of Spencer Hawes and Glen Davis, LAC struggles. But, as Favale suggests, small forward is still the more pressing issue, even with Matt Barnes improving upon his atrocious performances during the preseason and the opening salvo of this current campaign.
Unfortunately, the Clippers don't have many assets.
Shoring up either of these areas is going to require parting ways with either J.J. Redick or Jamal Crawford, and that's rather problematic for a team that relies on Redick's floor-spacing abilities and Crawford's penchant for creating his own offense.
Still, the sheer strength of the West almost demands that Doc Rivers looks into deals. Even though these Clippers are a strong team, regression from last year and all, they're not good enough to compete with the top teams in their half of the NBA during a playoff series, and that has to change during a win-now season.
New Orleans Pelicans
6 of 8
The New Orleans Pelicans, at least in their current shape, are not good enough to make the playoffs in the brutally difficult Western Conference. Not with the Phoenix Suns still ahead of them in the standings and the Oklahoma City Thunder ready to leap up the ladder with a healthy Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.
As good as Anthony Davis has been—and he's been arguably the best player in the league thus far—the surrounding pieces are not up to snuff. For evidence, you need only look at what happened during a strange Dec. 31 contest against the San Antonio Spurs, one in which Omer Asik accidentally tipped in the game-tying shot for the opposition and forced an overtime that wouldn't go well for NOLA.
Here's the list of players who suited up during the fifth period for the Pelicans, along with their player efficiency ratings on the season, per Basketball-Reference.com. Remember that the league-average PER is always set at 15.
- Anthony Davis, 31.4
- Jrue Holiday, 18.3
- Ryan Anderson, 17.9
- Omer Asik, 16.0
- Tyreke Evans, 15.9
- Austin Rivers, 10.3
- Dante Cunningham, 9.3
- Luke Babbitt, 8.2
- Jimmer Fredette, 7.4
Only Holiday was in foul trouble, eventually exiting the game after his sixth whistle, but the backup guards—Rivers and Fredette—likely would have played anyway. And that's a problem, one that won't be solved even after a struggling Eric Gordon returns to the rotation in some fashion.
Austin Rivers should not be playing crunch-time minutes for a team in the playoff hunt. Luke Babbitt should not be playing crunch-time minutes for a team in the playoff hunt. Jimmer Fredette should not be playing crunch-time minutes for a team in the playoff hunt.
This squad desperately needs upgrades, especially on the wing and in the backcourt. With Davis on the roster, winning now has to be the goal, and that's an unachievable standard with the current collection of limited talents.
Philadelphia 76ers
7 of 8
Do the Philadelphia 76ers have any players they'd like to acquire from other squads? Nope, not really.
Do they roster anybody they desperately need to get rid of or that contending teams would like to get their hands on? See the answer to the last question.
But that won't stop general manager Sam Hinkie from working the phones.
I imagine—and this is admittedly pure speculation—that he places calls daily, reaching out to opposing GMs and trying to figure out if there are any deals in the works. If two teams are talking shop, of course he's going to try inserting himself into the deal, helping to facilitate so that he can pick up another second-round draft pick.
Take the trade that sent Corey Brewer to the Houston Rockets as an example. Did the Sixers really need to give up Alexey Shved to Houston in order for this deal to work? Not exactly, but they parted ways with the guard, took on Ronny Turiaf's salary and gained a second-round selection for their efforts.
Philly won't make any major moves. That much is a given, as they don't have the assets (at least the assets they're willing to part with right now) in order to prove that statement false.
But that doesn't mean they won't talk about big-name swaps that are taking place between other teams, hoping to parasitically prey on player movement in order to gain more assets for the future while giving up only minimal pieces.
Phoenix Suns
8 of 8
"Caveats aside, there is every reason to believe the Suns will trade [Eric] Bledsoe, or one of their other flashy point guards, in the next few months," Howard Beck wrote for Bleacher Report. "It's the logical move, competitively and financially."
The other flashy floor generals would include Isaiah Thomas and Goran Dragic.
Thomas has thrived coming off the bench, but he's playing fewer minutes than he did with the Sacramento Kings and hasn't always seemed like the happiest of campers. Dragic is the best, most-established player in the backcourt, but he's also a free agent at the end of the season and isn't guaranteed to return to the desert on a new contract. Either of those two could easily be moved, as could the ever-intriguing Bledsoe.
Keeping all three, however, doesn't make much sense.
Going into the season, the prevailing theory was that Phoenix's three-headed monster at point guard was going to work, thanks to Jeff Hornacek's dual-PG stylings. If he was going to play two 1-guards at a time, logically it followed that he needed to have three at his disposal.
But that hasn't been the case.
Instead, the trio has struggled to thrive next to one another, and there have been glaring holes in the post. Not only do they have a dearth of back-to-the-basket scorers on the roster, but they struggle protecting the rim and have trouble ending possessions with defensive rebounds.
As a result of their roster composition, the Suns can both buy and sell during trade season. Obviously, they're going to be heavily involved in talks.
