2015 Lions Free Agency: An Early Guide to the Market
With the 2014 campaign now in the books, general manager Martin Mayhew now turns his full-time attention to forming the 2015 Detroit Lions. One of the key pieces to that puzzle is free agency.
Detroit will have some money to spend, thanks in part to an expected increase in the salary cap.
"The NFL's projected 2015 salary cap of $138.6 million would be -- and it's not final yet -- an increase of $5.6 million over the 2014 cap.
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) December 10, 2014"
The Lions have contractual obligations eating up a substantial portion of that figure. As Kyle Meinke of MLive.com noted last month:
"The Lions currently have approximately $120 million committed to 37 players for next season. That leaves them with more than $20 million for their final 16 players, though they'll actually have more money than that once they make their usual postseason roster moves.
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One of the biggest keys is a certain defensive tackle. Ndamukong Suh will cost the Lions almost $10 million even if he doesn't re-sign with the team, thanks to restructures to his original contract. Using the franchise tag to keep the All-Pro would eat up a significant portion of the free-agent kitty, though releasing some other players could free up more shopping funds.
Here are six players or positions Mayhew and his staff need to strongly consider in free agency.
Mike Iupati
1 of 6
If the Lions are going to splurge on a more premium free-agent target, it needs to be San Francisco 49ers guard Mike Iupati.
The former first-round pick is entering his prime at age 27. He's already been to multiple Pro Bowls, including the upcoming one. Iupati also plays the position which is Detroit's biggest need heading into the offseason: left guard.
Veteran Rob Sims will not be back. The rest of the free-agent pool is pretty shallow, with James Carpenter and Clint Boling the other top options.
Iupati had a down year in 2013, and he battled shoulder, elbow and knee injuries in 2014. His Pro Bowl berth this year was far more on reputation than on-field merit, though even his worst year is better than Sims. His Pro Football Focus (subscription required) marks show why he will be coveted:
| Grade | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 16.4 | 13th |
| 2011 | 15.9 | 11th |
| 2012 | 22.5 | 5th |
| 2013 | 0.7 | 35th |
| 2014 | 11.2 | 14th |
A healthy Iupati would make a marked improvement along Detroit's inconsistent offensive line.
Backup Quarterback
2 of 6
Both second-stringer Dan Orlovsky and perennial clipboard toter Kellen Moore are free agents. While it's possible one of them could return (Orlovsky the more likely candidate), it behooves Mayhew to scour the free-agent market.
What he'll see isn't pretty. The top names are all former starters who failed elsewhere, in some cases spectacularly so:
- Brian Hoyer
- Blaine Gabbert
- Christian Ponder
- Mark Sanchez
- Jake Locker
- Case Keenum
Then again, Matthew Stafford has proved quite durable over the last few seasons; Stafford has taken all but 42 offensive snaps in the last four years, and almost half of those were "human victory cigar" reps for longtime backup Shaun Hill.
The point is, there's not much reason to invest heavily at a position where the player optimally never plays a meaningful snap. Honestly, were Stafford to go down for an extended period of time, it's extremely unlikely any quarterback on the market would find much success in his place.
The concept of a more seasoned veteran to help mentor Stafford is appealing. Hill nicely filled that role and is available after an underwhelming season in St. Louis. Other names who could affordably fit that bill include:
- Jason Campbell
- Luke McCown
- Matt Moore
This is probably a position better addressed in the draft, but Mayhew has shown little propensity for drafting at that position. Stafford remains the only quarterback Mayhew has ever selected in his six NFL drafts.
Dwayne Harris
3 of 6
This pick is based on the (hopeful) presumption return specialist and reserve wideout Jeremy Ross will not be back in Detroit. He's a free agent, and his lousy performance late in the season should cause the Lions to give his agent the wrong phone number.
Detroit can pluck his replacement from its playoff vanquisher, the Dallas Cowboys.
Dwayne Harris isn't that much better than Ross statistically speaking. In fact, Ross had a higher average on kick returns (25.4) than the hirsute Cowboy (24.7) in 2014. Go back to 2013, however, and Harris' 30.9-yard average ranked second in the NFL.
Beyond his return specialist value, Harris is good on coverage units too:
"Two offensive players led the Dallas Cowboys in special teams tackles this season: WR Dwayne Harris (18) and TE James Hanna (12).
— Brandon George (@DMN_George) January 1, 2015"
He can fill the fourth wideout role Ross held just as well too. There's enough room in the budget to offer Harris a two-year, $1.8 million deal to provide a needed upgrade at the role.
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Inside Linebacker
4 of 6
This position doesn't often get mentioned among Detroit's bigger needs, but inside linebacker could wind up being a major issue in the near future if the Lions don't address it.
Veteran Stephen Tulloch is 30 and coming off a knee injury suffered while celebrating a sack. His coverage skills are the subject of constant scorn from fans and commentators alike. His 2015 cap figure is $5.8 million, a lot of money for an aging veteran coming off an injury. I project him to be a cap casualty, as his hit at just $2.6 million to cut him.
Ashlee Palmer and Josh Bynes, both of whom have played in the middle in Tulloch's absence, are also free agents. Tahir Whitehead is the only other inside backer on the roster other than DeAndre Levy, but the latter is a Pro Bowler outside and needs to stay there.
Whitehead was hit-and-miss as a run defender and struggled to make impact plays. The Lions could survive another year with him manning the middle, but an upgrade would be nice.
At minimum, Detroit must import some more proven depth.
Keeping Bynes could be a low-budget option. He wasn't bad (Pro Football Focus grade of minus-0.8) after being signed off the street when Tulloch went down. He's a decent backup who knows the defensive system.
Some free-agent options from other teams include:
- David Harris
- Colin McCarthy
- Brandon Spikes
- Jerrell Freeman
Chris Culliver
5 of 6
One of Detroit's bigger needs is finding an outside cornerback. While current starters Darius Slay and Rashean Mathis are solid, there is no quality behind them. With Mathis a 34-year-old free agent, bringing in a younger player who fits the coverage scheme is imperative.
Enter Chris Culliver.
The 49ers corner is not the most well-known free agent, but he's an optimal target for two reasons:
- He's a great schematic fit.
- He should be affordable.
San Francisco ran a similar style, aggressive press-man coverage with inside technique and a real emphasis on tackling.
"After a shaky first three games, Chris Culliver's +10.7 coverage grade over the final 13 games was fifth best among cornerbacks. #49ers
— Jeff Deeney (@PFF_Jeff) December 31, 2014"
He's not without some off-field baggage, from homophobic comments to a felony arrest. It behooves Mayhew to really dig into his personality and also to make sure Culliver and head coach Jim Caldwell mesh well together.
Ironically, those off-field travails might keep his price tag even more affordable. He's a good candidate to sign a deal similar to what several second-tier corners did last offseason. Per Rotoworld, here's what corners like Culliver pulled in free agency last year:
- Tarell Brown, one year/$3.5 million
- DeAngelo Hall, four years/$17 million
- Walter Thurmond, one year/$3.5 million
- Captain Munnerlyn, three years/$11.25 million
Given inflation, a one-year offer of $4 million or three years and $11.75 million should be enough to secure his services.
Ndamukong Suh
6 of 6
Make no mistake: It will not be cheap to keep Detroit's star defensive tackle. It won't be popular with all the fans either.
Yet the No. 1 priority has to be keeping Suh in the den. Good teams don't allow premium players to depart, period.
Suh is no ordinary premium player either. He's a dominant force in the middle of the defense and the catalyst for everything going on around him.
"Caldwell on Ndamukong Suh: He’s a dominant, dominant player who we benefit greatly from having his services.
— Josh Katzenstein (@jkatzenstein) January 5, 2015"
Obviously there is baggage. His repeated transgressions, personal fouls and recalcitrant behavior are well-known and make him one of the most polarizing players in the league.
The price tag could be outrageous on the surface. If it comes to it, Detroit can use the franchise tag to lock up Suh for one more year. That figure is a stunner...
"If the Lions want to ensure Ndamukong Suh's return next season, it will be $26.87M to put a franchise tag on him.
— Joel Corry (@corryjoel) January 5, 2015"
It's obviously more advantageous to agree to terms with a longer deal, something in the realm of the six-year, $95.2 million deal Gerald McCoy signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers recently. It could even match J.J. Watt's $100 million contract with the Houston Texans over six years, though Watt is the best defensive player in the game.
Suh is worth it for Detroit. A player of his magnitude cannot be replaced. The Lions could manage to sign a couple of lesser players to fill some of the void, but nobody could have the impact on the opponent Suh offers every week. It would require retooling the rest of the defense should he depart.
All contract information and free-agency statuses are from Spotrac.
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