How Long Can the San Antonio Spurs Survive Without Kawhi Leonard?
If there was any doubt about Gregg Popovich’s surefooted assertion to Michael Lee of The Washington Post that Kawhi Leonard was destined to be the next great crux of the San Antonio Spurs, the 2014 NBA Finals bid to hell those hems and haws for good.
Though his silence and stats might say otherwise, Leonard was a star—bar none and no strings attached.
Now, with San Antonio sputtering and Leonard still sidelined after suffering a right hand injury on December 15, Popovich is fast figuring out that fortune’s flip side.
In this wild Western Conference, not even the survival of a Finals champion is guaranteed. So exactly how long before the Leonard-less Spurs should officially start to panic?
Judging by the on-off court splits, the concern is more than well warranted:
| Leonard On / Off | ORtg | DRtg | +/- | TO Ratio |
| On | 106.5 | 94.4 | +9.7 | 13.9 |
| Off | 103.9 | 104.8 | -0.7 | 16.2 |
Such disparity can be traced, at the very least, back to the 2014 postseason, when Leonard registered the highest overall net rating of any Spur logging more than 400 minutes (13.4), per NBA.com (media stats require subscription). That number dropped all the way down to minus-8.0 with Leonard riding the pine.
That the lanky forward makes hay at both ends of the hardwood is, by now, a matter of gospel. Long lauded for his ability to guard multiple positions, Leonard’s offensive repertoire has steadily blossomed under Popovich’s gestalt system.
Even as far back as Leonard’s rookie season in 2011-12, there were some who recognized the quiet rookie’s workmanlike approach as a telltale sign of some rough-buried diamond. 48 Minutes of Hell’s Andrew McNeill included:
"When Leonard slid into the freshly-opened starting small forward spot, he thrived. As the playoffs came around and the Spurs rolled through to the Western Conference Finals, you never got the impression that the moment was too big for Kawhi Leonard. No, he looked like he belonged. All this after two years of college ball and a lockout-shortened season.
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A lesser leader of men might’ve been tempted to force Leonard into the fray far too early. But Popovich isn’t just any leader of men, in large part because he appreciated—seemingly off the bat—that Leonard wasn’t just any player. Talented, without a doubt, but not so much that patience and guidance need be abandoned.
The result: an eerily steady three-plus-year rise in Leonard’s usage rate, a baseline indicator for how involved a particular player is in his team’s overall offense.
Given the twilit career arcs of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, Leonard’s increased role makes more than a little sense, of course. Still, seldom has there been a player who better embodied a sense of waiting to be unleashed (we're sure there's a single German word for that), like some secret stallion held back in the stockades for just the right race.
In this sense, the 2014 Finals were merely a prelude to the larger unleashing to come. Judging by the Spurs’ spotty play in Leonard's stead, Popovich may be looking to pull that trigger much sooner than later.
“We’re trying to loosen up a bit and give him more of a green light,” Popovich confided in a recent interview with Lee. “He’s getting more license. When you’re a young kid, you’re going to defer to Timmy and Manu and [Tony]. Now it’s like, ‘To heck with those guys. The Big Three, they’re older than dirt. To hell with them. You’re the Big One.’”
Sadly, San Antonio likely won’t be loosing Leonard from the gate for a few more weeks, according to a report from Mike Monroe of the San Antonio Express-News.
The good news: The Spurs could see Parker—recently sidelined with a left ankle injury—return to the lineup as early as Tuesday. Solid though Cory Joseph has been in his mentor’s stead, Parker’s paint-probing prowess is critical to San Antonio’s attack. Without him, the Spurs are a group of gears minus the grease, waiting to be exposed to rust.
It’s no secret Popovich has long sought to foster a distinctly democratic approach to team-building. Sooner or later, though, the very talent that makes that approach feasible in the first place is bound to yield the one thing such a system is in some ways meant to prevent: indispensability.
Bleacher Report’s Stephen Babb underscored precisely this point in a piece from late December:
"There's no denying that San Antonio's team-first philosophy has been at the heart of its remarkable success over the years, but there isn't any substitute for sheer talent like Parker's or Leonard's. Without them, this rotation is a shell of its championship self.
With them, it just might be good enough to fix this mess.
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As things stand, the seventh-seeded Spurs—now 4-6 in Leonard’s absence to drop them to 21-14 overall—remain just two games ahead of Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans for the West’s eighth and final playoff spot.
That might be a comfortable margin heading into the last week of the regular season. In early January, with this many worthy challengers honing in on the conference throne? Gas station slot machines are surer things.
Can the Spurs survive another fortnight without Leonard’s five-tool talents? The sheer act of asking that question, however half-seriously, should be grounds for fan disownment. Of course they can survive.
Remain without Leonard much longer, however, and the Spurs risk making their margin for error—particularly as it concerns securing home-court advantage through part of the playoffs—all the slimmer.
Which, if you’re a dynasty that’s scaled every trial and tribulation possible over the past decade-and-a-half, probably doesn’t sound so dire.
Especially when your next great king is no longer merely waiting in the wings.
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