Super Bowl 2015: Full NFL Playoff Odds and Bold Predictions

There hasn't been an NFL postseason that's felt this wide open in years. While Seattle and New England clearly separated themselves from their respective conferences down the stretch, neither is so dominant that they can't be beaten. 

Once you get past the No. 1 seeds, everyone has at least one major flaw that can pop up at any moment. Green Bay has the best quarterback in the playoffs, but as was evident against Detroit in Week 17, Aaron Rodgers is just one wrong move from doing irreparable harm to his injured calf. 

All of the storylines are going to make this one of the greatest postseasons in recent memory, though that does make it hard to handicap a favorite in either conference. These predictions will attempt to do that, and the oddsmakers have put their resources to work, offering their own take on how things will shake out. 

Team	Odds To Win Super Bowl XLIX
Seattle Seahawks	12-5
New England Patriots	3-1
Green Bay Packers	6-1
Denver Broncos	6-1
Dallas Cowboys	17-2
Indianapolis Colts	28-1
Baltimore Ravens	40-1
Carolina Panthers	40-1
Detroit Lions	40-1
Cincinnati Bengals	40-1

Tony Romo Will Silence Playoff Haters, Briefly

One of the best parts of Dallas' 12-4 mark in 2014 is that it shut up all of the people who love to bash Tony Romo, even though he was doing more than a vast majority of quarterbacks in the NFL and got no support from a terrible defense. 

Romo's surge was never more evident than in December, a month that had been particularly fruitful for the haters, as this number from ESPN's John Buccigross highlights:

Now, the only thing that Romo doubters have left to hang their hat on is the postseason. This will be his fifth career playoff game. His numbers in the first four games have been erratic with four touchdowns, two interceptions, a yards-per-attempt average of 6.16 and completion percentage of 59.3, per Football-Reference.com.

What you won't read much of when going over Romo's 1-3 playoff record is that the Cowboys lost two of those games by a combined five points, including the botched field-goal snap that wasn't his fault against Seattle in 2006. 

Rainer Sabin of The Dallas Morning News went so far as to call the wild-card game against Detroit a legacy-defining moment for Romo:

"

In the club’s record books, Romo’s name stands atop many lists. He has thrown for more yards and touchdowns than Troy Aikman and Roger Staubach — the two Hall of Famers revered by Cowboys fans the world over.

Romo also has a far better career quarterback rating than either one. But he hasn’t come close to matching their postseason success or their combined five Super Bowl victories...

"

Again, we run into the problem of no one bothering to mention that Roger Staubach played during one of the two greatest eras for Cowboys football in history. Troy Aikman played during the other. 

Romo has never had a team with as much talent as Staubach or Aikman, but this is the best group he's ever had to work with. The results have shown in his performance with career-highs in completion percentage (69.9) and quarterback rating (113.2). 

The Lions are the perfect opponent for Romo to silence his playoff haters because their defense only succeeds when it's getting pressure with the front four. Detroit's secondary isn't good, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.7 percent of their attempts. 

Jim Caldwell's offense is vanilla, despite having arguably the league's best wide receiver in Calvin Johnson. Matthew Stafford has his own dubious history to overcome in this spot, via ESPN Stats & Info:

The strength of Dallas' offense is the offensive line. Those five players have done a fantastic job giving Romo time and opening holes for DeMarco Murray. This game is going to be a romp for the Cowboys and set them up for a showdown with Green Bay in the Divisional Round. 

Sadly, the Packers will end Romo's Super Bowl hopes, but it won't be because of him.

Denver Won't Win a Playoff Game

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Even though it's seemed like a foregone conclusion that the AFC would once again come down to New England and Denver, the Broncos need to figure out what kind of team they are going to be in the playoffs. 

Also, there's a dirty secret no one seems to be talking about: The Broncos haven't beaten an elite team this year. Indianapolis is one of the most flawed division winners in the NFL, while Arizona was playing with a backup quarterback in Week 5. 

Denver's four losses this season came against the three best teams on its schedule—Seattle, New England and Cincinnati.

The Broncos will end up playing the winner of Sunday's Cincinnati-Indianapolis game. The Colts nearly pulled off a miracle comeback against them in Week 1, while the Bengals picked off Manning four times in Week 16. 

There's also the matter of Peyton Manning's diminishing arm strength. The future Hall of Famer has never had a cannon, but he seems to have lost whatever zip was left in his right arm late in the season. 

Adam Levitan of Rotoworld.com noted how poor Manning's arm has looked down the stretch when the Broncos were relying more on the running game:

C.J. Anderson has stepped up to give the Broncos offense a dynamic that was missing earlier in the year, but there is still something off with this team. Manning threw 15 interceptions this season, his most since 2010, and 12 of them came in the last nine games. 

The Broncos do have a better defense this year than they did in 2013, but they are going to go as far as Manning will take them. That's a dangerous proposition since he will be playing outside in inclement weather for at least one playoff game. 

Regardless of whom Denver plays in the Divisional Round, it's going to be a challenge because of how erratic the offense has been down the stretch. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the Broncos win next week, but it seems like an iffy proposition at this point. 

In fact, based on how things look in the AFC right now, don't expect a long run from Denver in the postseason. The Broncos have explosive playmakers, without question, but Manning has to prove his arm can handle the elements before they look like a legitimate threat. 

New England Will Win Super Bowl XLIX

Jared Wickerham/Getty Images

It's not going out on a limb to say the Patriots will win a Super Bowl, but looking at everything objectively, they are the most complete team in the NFL. Seattle's defense is better, but it can't touch New England's explosiveness on offense. 

The Packers and Broncos might have flashier weapons on offense, but neither has a player who presents the coverage problems that Rob Gronkowski does. The addition of LeGarrette Blount has opened up the running game. 

Don't underestimate the importance of home-field advantage for these Patriots. They technically went 7-1 at Gillette Stadium in 2014, though that comes with a caveat because Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski didn't play in Week 17 and Tom Brady only played 30 minutes in that game because everything was already clinched. 

The Patriots averaged 36.4 points per game in their first seven home games and only allowed more than 24 points once in eight games in front of the Foxborough faithful. 

More importantly, as noted by Jenny Vrentas of TheMMQB.com, Bill Belichick has been able to build a team in which the two main areas are capable of supporting each other for the first time in a long time:

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The Patriots had a top 10 offense from 2010 to 2013, but a defense that ranked among the league’s bottom eight. This year’s team ranks No. 11 in offense and No. 13th in defense, based on yards per game...

So when Revis offers up what sounds like a clichéd response—that the offense can pick up the defense, and that the defense can do the same for the offense—there’s actually something to it. Especially since the offense’s torrid midseason pace hit a speed bump toward the end of the regular season. In their last five games (3-2), the Patriots averaged 22.2 points per game, compared to 39.6 points per game during an earlier seven-game winning streak.

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For the last few years, the Patriots have been an offense-oriented machine that was happy to get whatever it could from that defense. That wound up costing them in the playoffs, especially against physical teams like the Giants and the Ravens. 

Last year, the Broncos steamrolled the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. That won't happen this year because New England is better prepared to matchup with Denver, not to mention having a healthy Vince Wilfork in the middle of the defensive line this time around. 

It's been 11 years since the Patriots last won a Super Bowl, a drought that will come to an end on February 1 with a victory over Green Bay in Arizona. 

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