Predicting the 2009 Iowa Hawkeyes Football Season: Northern Iowa

To the unknowing eye, the Hawkeyes' opening game against a FCS school appears to be a gimme.  But for those who know college football (especially football in Iowa), the University of Northern Iowa is anything but a gimme game.

Last year, Northern Iowa made it to the semifinals of the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs, losing by a point to the Richmond Spiders and finishing the season at 12-3.  They are ranked in preseason polls at No. 6 in the FCS and are looking to three-peat as champions of the Missouri Valley Football Conference.

The Panthers return 42 letter winners from last year.  They return nine starters on offense, including senior quarterback Pat Grace (a candidate for the Walter Payton Award). On the other side of the ball, they return senior defensive end James Ruffin, who is on the Buck Buchanan Award candidate.  

That pool of experience for UNI comes into its games against in-state rivals with a chip on their shoulders.  Always viewed as the underdog, Northern Iowa comes out to prove they can hang with the big boys.  And most of the time they do.  This year that might especially be true, as the Panthers smell blood with rumors of Jewel Hampton's knee and a few Iowa players out due to suspension.

The point here is: Northern Iowa is far from a gimme.

Having mentioned all of that, what is this Hawkeye nerd's fearless prediction for the outcome of the game?

Iowa 31 - UNI 13

This game will start off as a defensive struggle.  As both teams begin to settle in, Iowa's strength will wear the Panthers down.  That's when the points will start adding up. 

Hampton will see some playing time, but it should likely be limited.  That means we will see more from backups Jeff Brinson and Paki O'Meara.  But, I think once the second half of the game starts, Iowa will look to air it out more and get Stanzi and the wide receivers involved. 

The key to Iowa's season will be how well they can do without Shonn Greene.  While Hampton is good and Brinson/O'Meara are solid backups, this is Stanzi's team now.  And he has a plethora of talent at wide-out to throw to.  Ricky Stanzi goes 24-33 for 262 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT. 

The Hawkeye defense looks solid in this game, giving up less than a 100 yards rushing and getting a few sacks along the way.  Amari Spievey and Tyler Sash will both have an INT.   

Like I said...fearless predictions from a Hawkeye nerd.

Up next in the series of fearless predictions for the 2009 Iowa Football Season: Iowa State.