Bengals Offense Must Be Run First, Run Often to Beat Colts

The Cincinnati Bengals will be without one of their biggest weapons on Sunday when they face the Indianapolis Colts in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. Wide receiver A.J. Green, who suffered a concussion in the regular-season finale, was downgraded to out on Saturday, according to the Bengals on Twitter.

Additionally, tight end Jermaine Gresham is listed as questionable with a back injury. Even if he can play, his participation could be limited in the game depending on how his back reacts. He played only 36-of-71 Bengals offensive snaps against the Steelers because of the injury, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

With Green sidelined and Gresham well below 100 percent health, Cincinnati's passing offense could struggle. However, that may not matter as long as the Bengals can run the ball well. The Colts defense has been vulnerable to rushing attacks all season long, and if the Bengals can establish the run early and lean on it often, they can exit Indianapolis with a much-needed postseason win.

The Colts have allowed over 100 yards of rushing offense in 10 games this year, including a high of 246 yards in their Week 11 42-20 loss to the New England Patriots. That defense currently ranks 18th in rushing yardage allowed per game, at 113.4 yards. In the Colts' past four games, the defense has given up no fewer than 115 rushing yards per game.

Stat	Value	Rank
Rush Yds/G	134.2	6th
Rush Atts/G	30.8	5th
Rush TD/G	1.2	T-1st
Rush 1st D/G	7.6	2nd
YPR	4.4	T-5th

Still, the Bengals offense is very capable of running the ball. It ranks fifth in average rushing attempts per game at 30.8, and sixth in rushing yards per game at 134.2. It is also tied with Seattle for the most rushing touchdowns per game at 1.2.

The Bengals surpassed 100 yards of rushing offense 11 times this season, and they have eclipsed 200 rushing yards in two of their last three games. Three other games were just shy of that mark. It therefore should not be a struggle for the Bengals to establish the run on Sunday and lean on it for the duration of the game.

There is precedent for why the Bengals wouldn't, though—their Week 7, 27-0 loss to the Colts, which featured only 32 yards rushing while Andy Dalton and the passing game tried in vain to dig them out of their hole. However, it's hard to imagine that the Bengals will repeat that dismal performance on Sunday—especially because of the way their run game came on after that loss.

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

The team relied more on rookie running back Jeremy Hill, who, since the Bengals' first meeting with the Colts, has rushed for 100 or more yards five times. Hill supplanted Giovani Bernard as the team's starting running back in Week 9 against the Jacksonville Jaguars and has helped turn the Bengals run game into what offensive coordinator Hue Jackson had envisioned.

Hill has rushed 222 times for 1,124 yards this year, is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and leads the team in rushing touchdowns with nine. He does have four fumbles, two of which he lost, but at the same time he also has accounted for 61 rushing first downs for the Bengals this season. 

Bernard still has a role in the run game, though it has been minimized as the season developed. He has rushed 168 times for 680 yards, is averaging 4.0 yards per carry and has five rushing touchdowns. His biggest value, however, is as a third-down and passing-down running back; he's been targeted 59 times this year and has 43 catches for 349 yards and two scores.

Player	Atts.	Rush. Yds.	YPR	Rush TD	Fum.	Fum. Lost	1st D.	Tgts.	Rec.	Rec. Yds.	Rec. TD
Hill	222	1,124	5.1	9	4	2	61	32	27	215	0
Bernard	168	680	4.0	5	0	0	32	59	43	349	2

The tandem, working in concert against the Colts' porous run defense, gives the Bengals options with Green out of the lineup. It's not just about power, or finesse, or speed or check-downs or trick plays—it's about all of them. If Hill and Bernard can execute practically everything asked of them, the absence of Green can be minimized, as well as the demands on Dalton with a thinner receiving corps.

The Patriots rushed 44 times in their dismantling of the Colts earlier this year. In fact, the Patriots have patented the formula of being unrelenting runners against the Indianapolis defense. New England rushed 46 times in last season's playoff meeting between the two teams, earning it 234 yards and a similar outcome to its November matchup—a 43-22 victory.

As long as the Bengals' run-heavy approach can get them to a lead quickly—and it can, as the Colts offense earned a reputation for starting slowly out of the gate this year—then they have no reason to turn away from the run. The Patriots' model works. And it's a perfect blueprint for how the Bengals offense can advance the ball and score points even with Green sidelined. 

Instead of trying to find ways to compensate for Green's absence in the passing game, the Bengals should just substitute running for passing. They have a strength in their run game that is well-suited to taking advantage of the Colts' biggest defensive weakness.

The Bengals must run in order to win on Sunday. The good news is that with Hill and Bernard, they most certainly can.