Super Bowl 2015: Odds and Predictions for Top Favorites and Dark-Horses

The current NFL playoff landscape reveals four clear Super Bowl favorites, all of whom have first-round byes.  But while the Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots and Denver Broncos may stand out as the league's current Mount Rushmore of power, recent history suggests that none of those four will ultimately hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Indeed, six of the past nine champions have played in the Wild Card Round.  As impermeable as the Seahawks defense or Packers offense may seem right now, analytics have suggested that the best teams in the league have not been quite up to their usual standards, at least in comparison to past years.

Thus, this massive gap between perception and statistics provides a big opening for savvy bettors to exploit.  Looking at the current Super Bowl odds via OddsShark, let's take a look at some of the best and worst propositions for championship bets.

Team	Odds
Seattle Seahawks	9-4
New England Patriots	33-10
Denver Broncos	117-20
Green Bay Packers	61-10
Dallas Cowboys	123-10
Pittsburgh Steelers	47-2
Indianapolis Colts	77-2
Carolina Panthers	43-1
Cincinnati Bengals	46-1
Baltimore Ravens	47-1
Detroit Lions	62-1
Arizona Cardinals	77-1

Best Value: Baltimore Ravens (47-1 or +4700)

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

As the sixth seed, the Ravens will need to win three consecutive road games just to reach the Super Bowl, with two of those likely coming at Foxborough and Denver.  Baltimore is an underdog to simply survive this weekend at Heinz Field, so of course, this is not necessarily meant to suggest that the Ravens are the best wild-card team in the field.

But with experience and a recent history of road playoff victories under their belts, it's difficult to rationalize why the Ravens are seen as the third-least likely team in the field to win the Super Bowl.  Joe Flacco's postseason statistics aren't as gaudy as his 9-4 career record would suggest, but the notoriously hot-and-cold quarterback has indeed been better in January and February:

	TD-INT Ratio	QB Rating	Yds/Att.	Adj. Yds/Att.
Playoff Flacco	2.4	86.2	7.2	7.2
Regular-Season Flacco	1.9	84.8	7.0	6.7

Moreover, advanced metrics have portrayed the Ravens favorably the whole season.  Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted DVOA metrics ranked Baltimore fifth overall, while Advanced Football Analytics had the Ravens eighth.

These long odds imply a 2.08 percent chance of the Ravens winning the Super Bowl.  That's fine if you think the top two AFC seeds are invulnerable, but as we'll see, that may not be the case.

Riskiest Bet: New England Patriots (33-10 or +330)

USA TODAY Sports

When pinpointing a top-two seed that could get upset in the divisional round, most point to the Denver Broncos, largely because of Peyton Manning's ostensible health issues.  While the Broncos have their own share of more prominent issues, the AFC's top seed is also not the sure bet it may seem.

The Patriots don't really have any crippling issues, but there are enough problems that could stymie them against the right opponent.  It starts with the passing game, which is heavily reliant on Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman.  Gronk and "Minitron" combined to account for 48.8 percent of New England's passing yardage and 43.5 percent of the targets.  But teams with a strong corner-safety combo, like the Broncos, could conceivably take away Edelman and bracket Gronkowski, especially in the red zone.

Moreover, though New England's secondary is largely excellent, teams can exploit them through the air with slot receivers and tight ends, much like the Packers did in their Week 13 win over the Pats.  New England ranked 30th in DVOA against opposing tight ends, as box safety Patrick Chung has regressed back to his career norms in coverage after an uncharacteristically strong start.

Make no mistake, this is still a well-rounded Patriots team that will once again make a strong run at the fourth championship of the Brady-Bill Belichick era.  However, given these odds and the paralyzing effect a four-man pass rush has on that offense, you can probably find better value by staying away from the Patriots.

Top Choice: Green Bay Packers (61-10 or +610)

The best choice, naturally, is the top-four team with the longest odds.  Perhaps because they play in the same conference as the Seahawks, the Packers hold that distinction.  Moreover, there's a strong chance Green Bay faces the Dallas Cowboys, likely the best team playing in the Wild Card Round.

Nevertheless, in Aaron Rodgers, the Packers have the type of trump card that few other teams can match.  In five regular-season games against the other playoff teams this season, Rodgers has put up better numbers than any quarterback besides Tony Romo, who has played a smaller sample size against such competition:

More importantly, though, the Packers defense has also improved down the stretch with improved health.  According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, Green Bay allowed just 4.9 yards per play over their last six games, seventh-best in the league during that span.  Apart from a one-game outlier against the Atlanta Falcons, when Julio Jones turned in a career-best performance, the Packers have used Clay Matthews' versatility, Brad Jones' revival in dime packages and a rangy secondary to shut down the opposition.

Winning at Century Link Field obviously remains a difficult task, but it's also not fair to take away much from the Packers' Week 1 loss at Seattle.  Given that these odds only diagnose the Packers with a roughly 16.4 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl, you're better off taking them because of the increased payoff they can provide compared to the other first-round bye squads.