Cotton Bowl 2015: Keys to Victory in Michigan State vs. Baylor Clash

There's a reason ESPN, FOX, Yahoo, CBS and Athlon Sports all tabbed the Cotton Bowl battle between the No. 5 Baylor Bears and the No. 8 Michigan State Spartans as the most intriguing postseason game—aside from the national semifinals. 

It's a unique contrast of styles. The Bears' run-and-gun high-powered attack against the Spartans' smashmouth, defensive style should make for an interesting battle. Also, the Bears and the TCU Horned Frogs are the teams with the biggest axe to grind as it pertains to be being left out of the College Football Playoff field.

You can bet head coach Art Briles has the Bears fired up to prove the committee made a mistake by leaving them out of the CFP final four. Briles wants his program to get respect after a strong run dating back to the days when Robert Griffin III was the quarterback.

At a pregame press conference on Tuesday, a Michigan reporter asked Briles if he was put off by the lack of attention his program gets in Texas. Per Bill Nichols of The Dallas Morning News, Briles said:

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Maybe your perception of what's happening in Texas is not the same as what’s in the state of Texas. You know, in the state of Texas, we kind of deal in reality. And the reality is, the last two or three years, we have been the dominant program in the state. When we sneeze, there are people saying ‘gesundheit’ to us and we say, ‘thank you.’

"

Well then.

Michigan State had its chances to qualify during the regular season, but it couldn't come up with the big wins it needed.

Now, the Spartans will head into hostile territory in Arlington, Texas, looking for a win over the Bears in what might equate to a home game for Briles' team. Joe Rexrode of the Detroit Free Press thinks the game will be nip and tuck, but he likes Baylor because of the home crowd and quarterback Bryce Petty.

Rexrode says:

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Unless you think Baylor is going to be sluggish after just missing the playoff, this is a toss-up. And you shouldn't think that. Both of these teams have something to prove and the means to prove it. Both are good enough at their best to be in the four-team playoff. This might come down to which has the ball last. Give Baylor the nod with the home crowd and the more experienced quarterback.

"

It's difficult to argue with that logic, but Baylor hasn't proved to be infallible this season. In what figures to be a close game, the little things will matter. Here's what both teams need to do to win.

Baylor: Avoid Penalties

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When the Bears play disciplined football, they are tough to beat. When they rack up penalties, they make the game so much easier for their opponents. If you combine the Bears' lone loss with the other two games from their schedule in which the team won by three points or less, penalties are the common issue.

In those three games, Baylor averages 12.6 penalties for 137.3 yards per contest. In the 41-27 loss to the West Virginia Mountaineers on October 18, Baylor committed 18 penalties for 215 yards. It'll be tough to beat any team if the Bears don't play with more discipline than that.

The onus for this falls primarily on the offensive line to avoid costly holding and false start penalties. It also spotlights the Baylor secondary. Sophomores Xavien Howard and Ryan Reid will have plenty of deep coverage opportunities. They have to cover without drawing flags.

Michigan State: Doing the Job on Third Downs

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It's all about defense with the Spartans. Specifically, third-down defense. In Michigan State's two losses this season, opposing teams have converted 53.3 percent of their opportunities on third down. 

Against Baylor, that will be disastrous. The Bears offense is potent. It averages 48.8 points per game. The last thing the Spartans need to do is to allow Baylor to extend drives. Third downs could be fairly infrequent in this game. If Michigan State's defense can't get off the field, it will be in trouble.

Look for defensive end Shilique Calhoun to be a catalyst for the Spartans. He's second on the team in sacks with 6.5 and first in quarterback hurries, per CFBStats.com. The more pressure he gets on Petty, the better chance the Spartans defense will have to be effective on third downs.