Bengals vs. Colts: Complete Wild Card Game Preview for Cincinnati
The Cincinnati Bengals control whether the fourth time is the charm.
Marvin Lewis' team is perfect in terms of postseason qualification over the past four years but has yet to record a mark in the win column as it heads to Indianapolis Sunday to take on the Colts in the Wild Card Round.
Andy Dalton and the Bengals are erratic as of late. A Week 16 win against the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football suggested a change of the times, but a loss at the hands of Pittsburgh to close the season put things into perspective.
Add revenge as another motivating factor Sunday. The Bengals are familiar with the trip to Indianapolis—the team made the trip back in Week 7 and went home with a 27-0 loss.
For the hobbled Bengals, Sunday is either a turning point for the franchise and its young players or a reaffirmation that postseason qualification is the ceiling.
Week 17 Recap
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A second prime-time appearance in as many weeks did not go the way of the first for the Bengals.
The Bengals hit the road to Pittsburgh for an AFC North title game and stood tall until the fourth quarter before falling 27-17.
Andy Dalton threw a pair of interceptions. The normally stout special teams allowed a punt to go back for a touchdown, and A.J. Green fumbled late and suffered a concussion—on the same play.
The defensive line reverted to midseason form and struggled to apply pressure. Ben Roethlisberger took advantage by throwing for 317 yards and two scores, while Antonio Brown ran wild on a porous secondary with seven catches for 128 yards and a score.
Cincinnati controlled the clock for more than 34 minutes of play largely thanks to 100 yards on 23 carries by Jeremy Hill. The Bengals lost due to turnovers and shaky defense, a pair of factors that will not fly against Andrew Luck and the Colts.
Season-long issues cropped up in Week 17. Should they reappear on Sunday, the Bengals will find it difficult to pick up a much-needed win.
News and Notes
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The "T" Word
Turnovers.
Thanks to the efforts of Dre Kirkpatrick and a defense that has now forced nine turnovers in its last three outings, the team's turnover margin rests at zero, with 26 lost and 26 forced.
As offensive coordinator Hue Jackson told the media, per ESPN.com's Coley Harvey, the number is not close to good enough:
"I've talked about it. We've harped on it. We're not getting it done to my liking, to my satisfaction. The key to our opportunity to win games rests in our ability to not turn the ball over. We've got to buy back into that theory again. We've had too many here recently, and it's cost us some opportunities.
"
Funny enough, Cincinnati did not turn the ball over in the Week 7 loss to Indianapolis.
The point stands, though, as giving extra opportunities to a quarterback like Andrew Luck dramatically swings things in his favor.
The Scene of the Crime
Speaking of that loss to the Colts, it was inevitable that the chatter surrounding Sunday's game dialed in on that outcome.
In short, many of the Bengals are thankful for another shot at the Colts on their own turf.
"Man, there were a lot of problems," safety Reggie Nelson said, per Paul Dehner Jr. of Cincinnati.com. "We got beat and they got the best of us, so it's always good going back to a stadium, back to the scene of the crime."
As Dehner notes, the Bengals were quite a different team then. Jeremy Hill was not the lead back. A.J. Green was out with an injury.
It goes on, but as hinted, revenge can be quite the motivating factor. The Bengals clearly have it on the mind.
The Question
Marvin Lewis is sick of questions.
Questions about his inability to win in the postseason, that is.
In a somewhat lighthearted manner, Lewis made it clear he is tired of what the media throw at him this time of year.
"I'm tired of answering the dumb question, all right?" Lewis said, per Harvey. "Excuse me. Not a dumb question. I'm tired of answering the very important question you have."
Of course, anyone has a right to ask at this point, as ESPN Stats and Info illustrates:
"Bengals coach Marvin Lewis is 0-5 in postseason. Per @EliasSports, the only other coach to lose 1st 5 postseason starts was Jim Mora (0-6).
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 29, 2014"
Lewis, the media, players and fans know how to get the question to stop.
The ball is in his team's hands once again.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Jermaine Gresham | TE | Questionable |
| James Wright | WR | Questionable |
| A.J. Green | WR | Questionable |
Good news for Cincinnati—A.J. Green returned to practice Thursday, which gives him a much better chance of taking the field Sunday.
It's a good thing the Bengals did not wind up in a Saturday game.
As will be detailed later, Cincinnati needs Jermaine Gresham to play as well, although a nagging back injury kept him out of practice Thursday.
*All injury reports are from ESPN.com. This slide will be updated when the official report is released.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Cincinnati Rush vs. Andrew Luck
Carlos Dunlap and the pass-rushers need to hit Andrew Luck early and often Sunday if the team is to win.
Paul Guenther's defense forced a pathetic 20 sacks this season, two of which came against Andrew Luck back in Week 7.
That's great, but the Colts have made adjustments since. According to ESPN.com's Mike Wells, the Colts have switched to more of a short-pass attack to keep Luck upright. The result? No sacks over the course of the team's last four games on passes that were in the air for 10 yards or less.
Three Colts receivers tallied a minimum of 50 receiving yards against the Bengals last time out. Now the ball comes out even quicker, which means the Bengals need to hit home even faster—preferably with just four rushers off the line.
Cincinnati Offensive Line vs. Indianapolis Pass Rush
This game will be won in the trenches over anything else.
On his way to an 18-of-38 mark for 126 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions back in Week 7, Andy Dalton was sacked three times and under pressure countless others.
The Cincinnati line looks different now with Eric Winston in the fold, but that does not change the fact that the Colts defense has 41 sacks on the year.
Jonathan Newsome (6.5 sacks), Bjoern Werner (4.0), Erik Walden (6.0) and others form a formidable pass rush that can and will plant Dalton on his back often Sunday.
For a line that allowed three sacks just last week, Sunday is one last chance to put together a strong performance when the team needs it the most.
X-Factor of the Week: Jermaine Gresham
Hear those groans?
Dalton is important. So is Jeremy Hill. Ditto for A.J. Green, if he is healthy.
They all pale in comparison to tight end Jermaine Gresham.
Like it or not, Gresham has come on strong in recent weeks as a reliable weapon. The Oklahoma product has a touchdown in each of his past three games and continues to function as Dalton's top security blanket and red-zone target.
As he did in Week 7, too. There, the offense targeted Gresham a team-high 12 times, and he brought in 10 for 48 yards. The Colts defense is content to funnel passes in his direction as opposed to Green's, so his ability to come up big after the catch and in the red zone might just decide the game outright.
Prediction
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There is a sliver of hope that a defense that owns nine turnovers in three games can lead the Bengals to a win Sunday.
Then again, defense has been the key to victory in the postseason consistently in the Marvin Lewis era, to no avail.
The Colts may rank poorly in terms of turnovers, but Andrew Luck threw no interceptions against this Cincinnati defense last time around. The Bengals continue to struggle to generate pressure without bringing extra help, which means the short passing game will feast if Paul Guenther dials up extra bodies on a rush.
Really, this is the same Bengals defense that allowed Trent Richardson of all backs to rush 14 times for 77 yards, and that happened with Vontaze Burfict in the lineup.
The offense needs to win the game for Cincinnati. Jeremy Hill is going to have a big day, but once again, the game will hinge on Andy Dalton. With A.J. Green not 100 percent, the Bengals simply lack the firepower to keep pace with the league's top passing attack.
Prediction: Colts 27, Bengals 23
Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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