Pressure Mounts on Matthew Stafford in 2nd NFL Playoff Appearance
After the Detroit Lions went 0-16 in 2008, their reward was Matthew Stafford.
Stafford was the first overall pick of the 2009 draft out of Georgia. He immediately became the Lions' franchise quarterback, but his first two seasons were hindered by by various injuries. When Stafford played a full 16-game season in 2011, his team went 10-6 and reached the playoffs.
That was the best year of Stafford's career. He threw for over 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns while completing 63.5 percent of his passes.
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In the playoffs, the New Orleans Saints beat the Lions, 45-28. Stafford's statistics were impressive on the whole, but he made a critical mistake early in the fourth quarter. On 1st-and-10 with 10 minutes left, down 31-21, Stafford heaved an inaccurate pass down the field while under pressure.
Saints cornerback Jabari Greer picked off the pass, leading to Robert Meachem's 56-yard touchdown a few plays later. Unfortunately for Stafford, that game has somewhat outlined his career since 2011.
Over the past three seasons, Stafford has averaged 4,625 yards and 24 touchdowns. However, during that time, he has also completed just 59.6 percent of his passes while throwing 16 interceptions per season, once every 41 pass attempts.
Interceptions haven't been a major problem for Stafford, but his inconsistent decision-making and accuracy has caused him to be significantly less efficient than he needs to be for the Lions to have one of the NFL's best offenses.
Football Outsiders' DVOA metric measures the efficiency of teams on a snap-by-snap basis. During the regular season, the Lions ranked 19th in the NFL in Offensive DVOA, and the passing attack ranked 17th. Using traditional numbers, the unit ranked 22nd in points and 19th in yards.
The context surrounding those numbers must be considered, though, as star wide receiver Calvin Johnson missed three games and didn't appear to be fully healthy for most of the season.
Johnson is the kind of player who alters the landscape of an NFL offense. The defense is forced to adjust to his presence and overplay him, which creates more space for other receivers. It also becomes much more difficult to creatively attack Stafford with pass-rushers.
For the Dallas Cowboys defense, Johnson's presence shouldn't dramatically alter their approach.
That is not because they have a player who can account for Johnson on his own; neither Brandon Carr nor Orlando Scandrick can. It's not even because their defense is especially good; it's below average. The Cowboys are unlikely to adjust for Johnson because they have built their success on discipline and consistency.
In all likelihood, the Lions will attempt to flood zone coverages and force Stafford to consistently make good decisions from the pocket. This is something that Stafford has struggled to do throughout his career.
This play from Detroit's Week 17 game against the Green Bay Packers is the type of one that Stafford needs to execute better against the Cowboys. At the snap, Johnson is lined up wide to the left, while the Packers defense is playing off coverage with a deep safety in position to come across to him.
Stafford motions a tight end into the backfield before running play action within the pocket.
Although the play fake affects the coverage down the field, the two defenders responsible for Johnson don't bite to leave him free running down the field on his seam route. Instead, two underneath defenders are drawn to Reggie Bush in the flat, leaving a vast amount of space over the middle of the field.
Stafford has plenty of time in the pocket because he only has three receivers running routes.
As he looks down the field, Johnson is drawing the attention of two deep defensive backs while tight end Eric Ebron runs across the field. Ebron is taking advantage of the space created by the play fake, and he has comfortably beaten the outside defensive back trailing him across the field.
Stafford has a simple throw to find him for a first down and a big gain.
However, he decides to ignore the open Ebron and heave the ball downfield to the covered Johnson. As Stafford releases the football, Johnson has one cornerback on top of him and a safety working his way across the field toward them.
This is the type of throw that isn't a smart decision and is completely reliant on Johnson doing something exceptional to create an avenue to the football.
Stafford's pass lands behind the defense. It is uncatchable, however, because Johnson had to fight through the defensive backs in front of him to get to the football. Instead of taking the easy yardage, Stafford's heave resulted in an incomplete pass.
The one argument in favor of making this throw is that it came on 2nd-and-short.
Taking shots down the field is something that every offense needs to do, but there is a smart way to do it and an inefficient way to do it. Stafford too often turns down open receivers to force the ball to Johnson when he is covered. This leads to negative plays that hurt the effectiveness of the offense.
Stafford is a very talented quarterback in terms of physical throwing ability. He showed that off in Week 17 by throwing for three touchdowns despite completing fewer than 50 percent of his passes. Two of those touchdowns went to Johnson.
Whenever Johnson steps on a football field, he has the potential to put up huge numbers. Obviously throwing the ball to him is a quick way to put up points, but picking and choosing when to go to the receiver is smarter than simply stockpiling targets for him.
For his first touchdown last week, Johnson initially lined up in the slot when the Lions spread the field with four wide receivers. The Packers are going to play the perfect coverage to counter the routes that the Lions receivers run, but Stafford's arm talent and Johnson's ability allow them to pick apart the defense.
The Packers are playing quarters coverage, while the Lions' outside receivers are running down either sideline. Johnson is initially held up early in his route, but he quickly brushes past the aggressive underneath coverage. This allows him to work his way into a pocket of space between the underneath coverage and the deep coverage.
Stafford has no options at this point, but he is staring down Johnson, who is going to be in position to catch a pass at the line of scrimmage.
Johnson is a much quicker, better route-runner than he is generally given credit for. On this play, he shows that off with his quickness through his route and his understanding of his positioning. He stays straight moving down the field before drifting infield so he has inside position on the immediate safety.
The other deep safety is too far away to affect Johnson if Stafford can get the ball to his receiver quickly.
Stafford throws a perfectly positioned laser over the underneath coverage to split both safeties at the line of scrimmage. Johnson is able to make a relatively simple reception because the safety behind him is too small to impact him at the catch point, while the other safety never has a chance to get to him before the football.
It's unclear if Stafford stared Johnson down from the beginning of the play simply because he did or because he diagnosed the coverage.
Regardless, Johnson was the right receiver to throw the ball to on this play. Stafford wasn't forcing the football to Johnson when he was covered or attempting to unrealistically fit the ball in between two defensive backs. There was significant space and the right route combination to get the ball to Johnson cleanly.
Obviously this play isn't always going to be available in this way, but this is where Stafford's ability as a quarterback must improve.
Stafford needs to understand game situations and coverages to pick and chose his moments to be aggressive. Against the Cowboys, a team that has one of the most efficient and highest-scoring offenses in the NFL, Stafford can't afford to make too many mistakes.
Even with Ndamukong Suh and the quality of the team's defense this season, Stafford can't be inconsistent and expect to beat the Cowboys in Dallas during the playoffs.
The Cowboys have been a better team on the road opposed to at home this season, but that doesn't mean they should be taken lightly. If the Lions are to extend their playoff journey further than they did back in 2011, they will need Stafford to have one of the better games of his career.
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