
Boise State vs. Arizona: Fiesta Bowl 2014 Predictions and NFL Prospects to Watch
While most of the attention is focused on the College Football Playoff, the other New Year's Six bowl games offer intriguing appetizers. The Fiesta Bowl between Boise State and Arizona, two previously anonymous programs that have clashed with more traditional powers in recent seasons, offers an exciting glimpse into a pair of squads that could again crash the party next season.
Boise State rebounded from the stunning end to the Chris Petersen era by going 11-2 and earning the major bowl bid for the Group of Five schools. Meanwhile, Rich Rodriguez's Wildcats had an outside opportunity at the playoff by reaching the Pac-12 Championship game, but they fell to Oregon and thus out of consideration.
For your last-minute preview on the players and matchups to watch in Tucson, read on below to see some of the major storylines surrounding the game for both college fans and draftniks alike.
Game Predictions
Jay Ajayi Eclipses 100 Rushing Yards

The Boise State junior is arguably the game's biggest star, as his 1,689 rushing yards ranked sixth in the FBS this season. Whereas the Broncos are undefeated in the nine games in which Ajayi eclipses 100 yards on the ground, they are also just 2-2 when he is held under the century mark.
Arizona can overcome a strong Ajayi performance, but they appear unlikely to suppress Boise State's best player. The Wildcats conceded 170.4 rushing yards per game and 4.05 yards per carry, which ranked 74th and 50th during the regular season, respectively.
Even in the Pac-12, Arizona has not really seen an individual tailback like Ajayi. The closest comp would probably be USC's Javorius Allen, who shredded the 'Cats for 205 yards and three touchdowns when the Trojans won in Tucson on Oct. 11.
That bodes poorly for Arizona's chances of containing Ajayi. Boise State will attempt to control this game on the ground, meaning Arizona likely needs to make a few big plays in the passing game to prevent the Broncos from taking a stranglehold on time of possession.
Scooby Wright Flusters Grant Hedrick

Fortunately for the Wildcats, they possess one of the nation's biggest defensive game-changers, who can punish Boise when it does need to turn to the air. Scooby Wright swept up the postseason hardware this year, collecting the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Award as well as the Bednarik, Nagurski and Lombardi Awards for individual defenders.
With 14 sacks and an eye-popping 27 tackles for loss, Wright figures to overwhelm a Broncos line that allowed 2.08 sacks per game, 67th in the country. In his press conference leading up to the Fiesta Bowl, Boise State quarterback Grant Hedrick compared Wright and the Wildcats' speedy defense to a similarly stifling Ole Miss team the Broncos faced in Week 1:
Hedrick completed 36 of 46 passes in that game against the Rebels, but threw four interceptions en route to a 35.9 raw QBR. The senior quarterback has largely been rock-steady since his worst game of the year, a four-interception performance against Air Force on Sep. 27. That was the Broncos' last loss, and since then, Hedrick has thrown 17 touchdowns to just four interceptions while also adding seven touchdowns on the ground.
His mobility will be necessary against Wright, and it will be interesting to see if Boise State calls any roll-outs or play-action bootlegs to keep Hedrick away from the unanimous All-American. But reducing the field would greatly aid an Arizona pass defense that has allowed 7.3 yards per attempt this year, 82nd in the FBS.
NFL Prospects to Watch
Jay Ajayi, RB, Boise State
The aforementioned Ajayi is the top NFL prospect in this game, with both CBS Sports and Walter Football pegging him as their eighth-ranked running back. Considering the depth of this year's running back class, which may finally break the first-round barrier that has appeared over the last two years, that ranking has Ajayi as a likely Day 2 pick.
At 6'0" and 216 pounds, Ajayi is a sturdily built runner who happens to possess game-breaking speed. With 45 catches for 536 yards and four scores through the air, the junior tailback has earned favorable comparisons to one of the NFL's best all-around backs:
Ajayi's own teammates and coaches have echoed that sentiment as well, noting that his skill level makes him a strong bet at the second level:
At the moment, the Boise State back is currently in the second tier of running backs with the likes of Duke Johnson and Ameer Abdullah. His stock isn't higher because of prominent ball security issues, as Ajayi has had 11 career fumbles, including six this season. However, if he can shave some time off his 4.57 40-yard dash, perhaps that will be enough to propel him into the second round.
Austin Hill, WR, Arizona
The 6'2" senior Hill represents Arizona's best draft prospect. Hill could have entered the 2014 draft despite missing the 2013 season with an ACL injury but decided to return to school for his senior season. Though he caught the memorable Hail Mary against Cal, Hill's decision has largely failed to pay dividends:
| 2012 | 81 | 1364 | 16.8 | 11 |
| 2014* | 45 | 605 | 13.4 | 4 |
Nevertheless, Hill remains ESPN's 11th-ranked wide receiver (subscription required), with his scouting report highlighting his ball skills and impeccable intangibles. Hill is not as much of a big-play threat as someone with his size and route-running ability would suggest, as he has averaged a relatively modest 13.4 yards per catch this season, fourth among Wildcat receivers.
Still, the memory of his spectacular 2012 season lingers for teams that may want a high-character leader with rock-solid hands. Assuming Hill's medical information checks out, look for him to emerge as a borderline Day 2 pick, with his floor likely sitting in Round 4.
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