College Football Championship 2015: Preview, Predictions for Rose, Sugar Bowls

The seemingly never-ending buildup to the inaugural College Football Playoff is nearly over. We're just over 48 hours away from the opening whistle in Pasadena, where Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota will battle Hunger Games style to leave the best lasting impression on NFL scouts.

If the month-long wait between conference championship week and the playoffs seems anticlimactic, well, that's because basically nothing happened. No major scandals broke. No one lost a leg in practice. Hell, no one's even said anything particularly dumb in press conferences.

The relative calm before the storm proves a few things. One being that college kids are more mature than we'd ever think. Given multiple opportunities to toss my foot in my mouth as a 20-year-old kid, I'd have probably done it each and every time. (Same goes for me at 24.)

But instead, a business-like approach has washed over proceedings. These kids are on business trips, not vacations. Sure, most business trips end at the bottom of hotel mini-bar bottles for us and not with #SwagBags, but the result is the same. Get in, get done with business and prepare for the next step.

With that in mind, let's check in on the sideline for both contests and break down how things should play out.

No. 3 Florida State vs. No. 2 Oregon

The narratives are too many to count. Marcus Mariota versus Jameis Winston. Jameis Winston in general. Florida State's record-setting 29-game winning streak. The last remnants of the Chip Kelly era trying to win the program's first national championship. Crazy Seminoles fans. Crazy Ducks donors. 

Oh, and then there's the whole football game thing. It might be fun too.

Florida State enters Pasadena as one of the most unique undefeated teams in college football history. That the Seminoles remain unbeaten is a testament to their fortitude—and a whole heaping pile of luck. Seven of their 13 victories have come by a touchdown or less, including each of their last four. 

“A lot has been made of them (the Seminoles) being a second-half team and all this stuff and not winning decisively,” Oregon coach Mark Helfrich told reporters. “Winning is really hard, and again winning once is hard, and you’re going to get everybody’s best shot.”

Niceties aside, teams don't just go 7-0 in one-possession games without some mean regression. One-possession games by their nature are inherently fluky, built on a series of high-variance occurrences that can flip in an instant. Seminoles fans would like to think their team has overcome the odds because they're more clutch than others—and perhaps that's true—but the amount of close games does expose weakness.

Florida State is 20th this season in defensive FEI plus, a Football Outsiders metric that normalizes a team's performance to its opponent and other factors. The Seminoles were by far the nation's top team in that metric a year ago, one of the best units in recent memory.

By contrast, Oregon, long maligned for its defensive deficiencies, is measured as the nation's 13th-best defensive team. Eleven of Oregon's 12 victories have come by double figures, and the Ducks played only two games within a touchdown. Florida State supporters would be quick to note Oregon lost one of those contests, which is a fair enough point.

But those same people would have to acknowledge Florida State's only subjective category where it's superior is in the win column. Cliches about how winning is all that matters aside, Oregon is objectively a better football team than Florida State has been at any point in 2014. Mariota has been better than Winston, Royce Freeman more explosive than Dalvin Cook, the Ducks defense better on an opponent-adjusted scale and Oregon's return prowess makes its special teams better as a whole. (Roberto Aguayo remains da gawd, though.)

Most smart people will bet on Oregon. I'm apparently not smart. For whatever reason, since the beginning of this process I've had a gut feeling the nation at large has been underrating Florida State. The Seminoles aren't the big swinging bully they were a year ago. They are, however, a wildly talented offensive team that has a knack for never getting too down on itself.

Call it a gut feeling that when Florida State says it wants Alabama, it'll do what it takes to make that happen.

Score: Florida State 42, Oregon 38

No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Alabama

If Cardale Jones is ever going to be prepared for a game, it'll be Thursday. The Ohio State quarterback, who will make his second career start for the injured J.T. Barrett, has had nearly a month to prepare for what Nick Saban has in store. He's been coached up by one of the three or four best offensive minds in college football.

None of this is ideal. Ohio State would rather be heading into the playoffs with Barrett, a legitimate Heisman candidate before his injury, or Braxton Miller, a preseason Heisman favorite, under center. But it appears Urban Meyer knows the only way to win is by treating Jones like he's one of the two stars.

"There's no limitation on offense when I'm in as far as 'We can't do this, we can't run this,'" Jones told reporters when asked if the offense would be changed for him. "It's the same as Braxton had with freedom."

Saban's defensive system by its nature is designed to test the freedoms of its opposing quarterbacks. Alabama thrives on making opponents switch their primary goal; audibles are nearly as good as stops. That will be especially the case against an Ohio State offense that likes to push tempo and limit defensive substitutions.

"I know against us, he's going to have to do a lot of processing and a lot of thinking," Alabama safety Landon Collins told reporters. "We're definitely going to confuse him as much as possible."

How Jones handles the confusion will determine how this game goes. There exists a very real possibility that Alabama destroys Ohio State. The Big Ten's recent record in big, nationally televised games isn't promising, and the Buckeyes are facing the champion of the nation's most powerful conference. One or two first-quarter turnovers, and we could be headed for a 42-14 drubbing.

If Jones can keep the offense humming, though, Ohio State is a much better football team than it's given credit. The Buckeyes are one of two teams (Alabama being the other) that ranks among the nation's 10 best on offense and defense, per FEI plus rankings. Marshall and Oregon State were the only two teams to move the ball better on a per-possession basis during the regular season.

Alabama has been more inconsistent offensively, but its highs have been awfully stratospheric of late. Blake Sims has developed into a reliable passer who gives the Tide a dual-threat dynamic that's been absent throughout the Saban era. Sims' 321 rushing yards are by far the most an Alabama passer has had in Saban's eight seasons.

Derrick Henry and T.J. Yeldon have complemented one another well on the ground, keeping them fresh heading into the bowl season. Henry has scored at least one touchdown in five of his last six games. Alabama as a team turned in its two most impressive offensive performances of 2014 in wins over Missouri and Auburn to make the playoffs.

Saban told reporters of polarizing offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin:

"

He's always been a very bright guy as an offensive coach and has done a fantastic job with our players. If you continue to have success and do a good job at what you're doing, it's going to create opportunities for you in the future. I certainly think that would be the case with Lane.

"

When assessing the two teams, it becomes quickly apparent you're not choosing a winner. You're choosing how many points Alabama will win by. That's probably not fair, and I wouldn't put it past Jones to put a scare into the Tide.

There's just no way on earth to justify selecting a green quarterback against college football's greatest tactician.

Score: Alabama 41, Ohio State 23

 

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