Super Bowl 2015: Predictions and Odds for League's Top Contenders
This all looks quite familiar.
Maybe the NFL isn't the parity gold mine everyone thinks it is. Last year's Super Bowl participants make up a short list of probable candidates for the upcoming installment, and the usual suspects round out the other hopefuls.
Last season, each Championship Game matchup turned out exactly as planned all along. The Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers clashed for NFC supremacy, while Peyton Manning and Tom Brady again looked destined to do this forever.
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Replace the 49ers with the Green Bay Packers and you've got this year's popular picks. Let's try to make this more fun by examining a dangerous squad from each conference capable of crashing the party.
Playoff Picture
Super Bowl Odds
| Seattle Seahawks | +263 |
| New England Patriots | +300 |
| Denver Broncos | +650 |
| Green Bay Packers | +655 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1400 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +2600 |
| Detroit Lions | +3000 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +3500 |
| San Diego Chargers | +3800 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +4100 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +4200 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +7000 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +7500 |
| Carolina Panthers | +10500 |
| Houston Texans | +45000 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +50000 |
All odds, courtesy of Odds Shark, were obtained before Sunday's Week 17 games.
Predicted Postseason Bracket
| 1 | New England Patriots (12-4) | 1 | Seattle Seahawks (12-4) |
| 2 | Denver Broncos (12-4) | 2 | Green Bay Packers (12-4) |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) | 3 | Dallas Cowboys (12-4) |
| 4 | Indianapolis Colts (11-5) | 4 | Atlanta Falcons (7-9) |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) | 5 | Arizona Cardinals (11-5) |
| 6 | Baltimore Ravens (10-6) | 6 | Detroit Lions (11-5) |
Dangerous Contenders to Watch
Dallas Cowboys
There's only one team that can break up an NFC Championship Game showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers. After years of being typecast as overhyped losers that choke when it counts, the Dallas Cowboys finally have their chance for vengeance.
With a plus-14 point differential and Ryan Lindley at quarterback, the Arizona Cardinals are falling apart. They may very well end up losing to the seven-win NFC South winner. Although the Detroit Lions have a chance to pounce the Packers again, they've benefited from a light schedule featuring the NFC South and the NFC North's lesser foes (Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears) twice apiece.
Close your eyes and picture the grand stage in Glendale, Ariz., and there are only three teams that fit the daydream.
They say Tony Romo can't win the big one, but they also said he stinks in December. Hey, NFL on ESPN, how's that narrative working out?
With that torrid stretch, Romo leads the NFL in completion percentage (70.3) and yards per attempt (8.49). If Aaron Rodgers isn't careful on Sunday, Romo can make the MVP discussion interesting.
If the Seahawks and Packers handle their business over the weekend, Dallas' Super Bowl itinerary would run through Lambeau Field and/or CenturyLink Field. Brutal, but the Cowboys are 7-0 on the road, including a Week 6 victory over the Seahawks.
Turning back to NFL on ESPN again, such stellar road success has often foreshadowed a fruitful postseason.
Dallas' primary concern lies with its No. 23 passing defense. While the entire unit has vastly improved from last year's league-worst defense that many expected to decline further, the cracks are starting to show. They've allowed 24.6 points per game since their Week 11 bye, including last week's 42-7 victory over an Indianapolis Colts squad playing with little on the line.
A second-round matchup against the Packers creates a poor matchup that would probably upend Romo's quest to silence all the irrational loudmouths. The defense and DeMarco Murray's insane workload—why did he keep playing with a broken hand during a blowout last week?—make it tough to pick an upset at Green Bay, but don't count the Cowboys out in January.
Prediction: Divisional-round loss to the Packers
Pittsburgh Steelers
Heading into Week 17, the AFC's best offense doesn't belong to the Colts. Nor does it to the Patriots. Not the Broncos, either.
Nope, the Pittsburgh Steelers lead them all with 415.4 total offensive yards per game.
In a conference dominated by Brady and Manning over the years, Pittsburgh has constantly served as the one wild card to throw a wrench into their stranglehold. That is once again the case, as Ben Roethlisberger is a major threat to guide his club into its third Super Bowl with him under center.
The 32-year-old is armed with deadlier weapons than ever before. Le'Veon Bell ranks second with 2,115 yards from scrimmage behind Murray, and Antonio Brown leads the NFL in receptions (122) and receiving yards (1,570).
With the AFC North at stake on Sunday night, the Cincinnati Bengals will likely devote their attention to Bell, who burned them for 235 total yards and three touchdowns in Week 14. He told the Observer-Reporter's F. Dale Lolley that the extra men in the box won't bother him a bit, as the powerhouse passing game will simply strike instead:
“I wouldn’t say [it’s] frustrating. Teams are obviously trying to slow down the run a little bit, but they can’t stop the pass when they do that. Pick your poison.”
Sure, the Bengals forced skeptics to take them seriously by upsetting the Denver Broncos on Monday night, but they're too erratic to trust for anything more than a first-round win. There are no cupcakes vying for the final wild-card spot, but they're all limited in one way or another.
While the Colts trail right behind with the No. 3 total offense, they have already lost to the Broncos, Patriots and Steelers. The six passing touchdowns allowed at Heinz Field sure were ugly.
It's the Steelers poised to grab the division crown, upend the final wild-card winner and set up a date with Denver. John Fox's new-found commitment to the run plays in to exactly what Pittsburgh wants, as it ranks No. 6 against the rush and No. 27 versus the pass.
Even if Manning regains his mojo, Roethlisberger's offense can match him point for point. New England is a different story, as Brown would visit Revis Island while Bill Belichick is sly enough to eschew the run altogether and let Brady air it out.
For a team that started 3-3, an AFC Championship Game appearance sure would be impressive.
Prediction: AFC Championship Game loss to the Patriots
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