Reasons Why Alabama Will and Won't Beat Ohio State

Nobody is really giving Ohio State much of a chance against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

Bleacher Report has Alabama in a close one. All of ESPN’s SEC writers are picking Alabama. All but one of Sports Illustrated’s experts picked the Crimson Tide. Las Vegas oddsmakers have Alabama by nine points.

You get the picture.

Still, college football teaches us seemingly every day not to put any kind of stock into this pontificating and postulating. In fact, last time Alabama played in the Superdome, it was a 17-point favorite and ended up losing.

So, as if it really needed to be said, this game could go either way.

Here, we’ll present a couple of reasons for why Alabama will and won’t beat Ohio State in the College Football Playoff.

Will: Inexperience at Quarterback

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Much has been made about Cardale Jones getting the start at quarterback in this game after entering fall camp as the third quarterback on Ohio State’s depth chart.

Jones looked rock solid in a 59-0 win over Wisconsin.

But this game will be different. This ain’t Wisconsin.

Jones was a relative unknown against the Badgers, who only had a week to prepare for a new man under center. Alabama at least has some tape on him now and a month to prepare (more on that in a minute).

Nick Saban and defensive coordinator Kirby Smart will throw everything they have at Jones up front to make sure he can’t get comfortable and sit back and make throws like he did in the Big Ten championship game.

Won't: Long Ball

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The good news for Jones is that his strength works well with Alabama’s defensive weakness.

Jones has a little bit more arm strength than J.T. Barrett, and he displayed that against Wisconsin. He hit four throws of more than 30 yards, including three touchdowns. Auburn hit six such passes against Alabama, including two touchdowns. Missouri connected on three.

The Crimson Tide’s defensive back have generally been in decent coverage on these deep balls they give up. But Alabama’s cornerbacks have been victims of perfectly placed balls or didn’t play the ball at all.

Jones’ touchdowns against Wisconsin were on similar plays. He could have that same kind of success against Alabama.

Will: Big-Game Saban

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If you give Nick Saban a lot of time to prepare for a big game, he’ll make you pay.

Alabama is a perfect 3-0 in national championship games under Saban and won all by at least 16 points.

With Alabama in the postseason, it’s all or nothing. The Crimson Tide have also suffered embarrassing bowl losses to Utah and the aforementioned Oklahoma. Alabama just isn’t motivated for games without a championship on the line.

"No question," Julio Jones said in an interview with Sports Illustrated. "You see, the Sugar Bowl, when we're there, it's like championship or not. Sugar Bowl? Nobody cares about playing in the Sugar Bowl."

This time, the Sugar Bowl means a lot. You can expect Saban to have Alabama ready to go against Ohio State.

Won't: Meyer vs. Saban

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If there’s a coach that knows Saban’s tendencies in these big games, it’s Urban Meyer.

Meyer and Saban met in a pair of epic SEC championship games in 2008 and 2009 with Alabama and Florida each taking one. Those two teams were at the top of college football at the time and each went on to win BCS National Championship Games that were mere formalities.

But that street goes both ways.

Saban is also very familiar with Meyer. In 2010, Alabama ran Florida out of Bryant-Denny Stadium in the regular season, in Meyer’s post-Tim Tebow season and last of his Florida career.

But Ohio State has an advantage that Oregon and Florida State wouldn’t have had facing Alabama. And with the odds seemingly stacked against the Buckeyes, they’ll take whatever they can get.

Will: Rushing Offense

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Before stonewalling Melvin Gordon and Wisconsin’s rushing attack, Ohio State was reeling in the rush defense part of its game.

The Buckeyes allowed at least 100 yards rushing in five straight games before the Big Ten championship, and two of those teams went over 200 yards on the ground.

Conversely, Alabama is hitting its stride running the football. The Crimson Tide have hit the 200-yard mark on the ground in their last three games.

It hasn’t been quite as dangerous with Kenyan Drake lost for the year, but expect a heavy dose of T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry to be thrown at the Ohio State defense in this one.

Won't: Pass Rush

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Alabama hasn’t seen a pass rush like Ohio State’s. Not for a whole game at least.

The Crimson Tide had a big test ahead of them in the SEC championship game against Missouri with Shane Ray and Markus Golden. But Ray was ejected early in the second quarter, so Alabama could focus its efforts mostly on Golden.

Ray already had half a sack by the time he was ejected for a late hit to Blake Sims. Whether you agree with the call or not, it hampered what Missouri could do up front.

Joey Bosa is the best individual rusher Alabama will face this season. He’s been a nightmare for offenses and someone teams have to recognize on every snap.

Behind Bosa, players like Michael Bennett and Darron Lee give Ohio State a wealth of talent to pull from when attacking the quarterback.

That means a lot of pressure for a freshman left tackle and the rest of Alabama’s offensive line.