NFL Playoff Picture 2014: Full Standings and Key Week 17 Storylines

The NFL is a like an organism—full of life and constantly evolving. While this is the final weekend of the year in which all 32 teams will be on the field, the sheer volume of storylines is like trying to walk into The Wire three seasons in with no knowledge of the show beforehand. 

All that can be definitively said at this point is 10 teams have clinched their playoff spot, and New England has home-field advantage in the AFC. The two spots and seeding for 11 teams puts more pressure on the 16 games this weekend than anyone would have guessed when the season started. 

As the hours tick away slowly, counting down to the last full weekend of games on the schedule, storylines for teams and games keep changing. Here are the latest standings heading into Week 17, as well as the major storylines to watch. 

Is San Diego Now a Playoff Lock?

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One of the key early games on the schedule is an AFC West showdown between San Diego and Kansas City. The Chargers need to win and they're in, while the Chiefs need to win and get some help to make their second consecutive playoff trip. 

Unfortunately for Kansas City, it will be playing without quarterback Alex Smith. Trainer Rick Burkholder announced on Friday that Smith suffered a lacerated spleen in the Chiefs' Week 16 loss against Pittsburgh, via Chiefs.com. 

Chase Daniel will get the start in Smith's place. It's the second career start for the former Missouri star. His previous start also came against San Diego, last year in Week 16. It was a 27-24 loss, though Daniel did play well, via the team's official Twitter:

Even though Smith's absence would seem to give San Diego a big edge, it actually stands to help the Chiefs more than you think. 

For whatever reason, Andy Reid has lost the thread on what makes this offense tick. The Chiefs are at their best when Jamaal Charles is the focal point. though that hasn't been the case during this late-season slide, as Patrick Daugherty of NBC Sports noted on Twitter:

Last week, the Chargers defense had a historically bad day stopping the run against San Francisco, via Mike Garafolo of Fox Sports 1:

San Diego was able to steal a win against the 49ers, but run defense has been a season-long issue. That's not good when you are going up against Charles and Knile Davis. 

Eventually Daniel will have to make a play to help Kansas City win the game, which doesn't seem likely, but the gap between where the Chiefs would have been with Smith and where they are with Daniel isn't as stark as it might seem because it forces Reid to run the ball more. 

The Chargers will win the game, but it will be closer than you think. 

Who Has the Edge in the NFC South?

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The numbers for Carolina and Atlanta, the two teams battling for the NFC South title on Sunday, are cringe worthy. The Panthers have been outscored by 66 points this season. The Falcons are 1-9 against teams outside the division. 

As bad as these teams look overall, there are bright spots to be found. For instance, Carolina's rushing attack has returned in recent weeks thanks to a resurgent—and healthy—Jonathan Stewart. 

According to David Newton of ESPN.com, Stewart leads the NFL in rushing over the last four weeks and has been making critical plays in the passing game:

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Stewart's 437 yards rushing in the last four games are the most in the NFL. Because of injuries, he had only 516 yards in the previous two seasons combined. 

He had 122 yards on 24 carries in Sunday's 17-13 victory over Cleveland. He also caught the game-winning touchdown, a 9-yard pass from Cam Newton with 7:07 left. 

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On the Atlanta side, Julio Jones has been a monster with 100 receptions for 1,535 yards and six touchdowns. He was held in check earlier this year against Carolina, recording 59 yards on six catches. In his last three games, the star wideout has 555 receiving yards on 28 catches. 

If you're waiting to hear talk about either defense, don't hold your breath. It's not pretty for either side, though the Panthers can at least take solace in allowing the ninth-fewest pass yards per game this season. 

Atlanta's defense allows a league-worst 404.4 yards per game and the eight-most points per game (25.5). Carolina is 22nd in scoring defense (24.7), so there should be plenty of points on both sides. 

Thus, it comes down to which offense is more trustworthy. Atlanta is more explosive with Jones and Matt Ryan, but it's also one dimensional with a lackluster running game.

Carolina hasn't been lighting it up through the air, though Cam Newton has been looking like his old self with more than 200 passing yards and 146 total rushing yards in his last two games. Put that dynamic on the field against the Falcons and the Panthers should be able to control the clock to secure a playoff berth. 

Is Denver in Trouble?

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Even though the Broncos aren't fighting for their playoff lives against Oakland in Week 17, they can ease a lot of doubts by playing a crisp game. They also can't afford a letdown because the No. 2 seed in the AFC is still up for grabs if John Fox's team loses. 

Something has happened to Peyton Manning in recent weeks that's finally starting to get more attention. Per the NFL on ESPN, the reigning MVP has been turnover prone lately:

There's more to Manning's struggles than just throwing interceptions, as noted by ESPN Stats & Info on ESPN.com:

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Since the start of Week 9, Manning is 17th in Total QBR when not under pressure. In that span, he has 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions when not pressured by the defense. Since the start of Week 9, when Manning has been pressured, he ranks 26th in Total QBR. 

When facing a loaded box - meaning there are more defensive players in the box than available blockers - Manning's accuracy has worsened in the last seven weeks. He is 23rd in Total QBR. In the first nine weeks of the season, Manning had the most touchdown passes and the best QBR against a loaded box. 

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It's hard to chalk up Manning's four interceptions against Cincinnati in Week 16 to bad weather, because there figures to be plenty of that in Denver during the playoffs. 

While it's strange to say a team that won four consecutive games before last week is in trouble, there's no doubt that Denver has changed lately. Manning is the engine that makes everything work, so if defenses have found a weakness in his game now that's an issue heading into the postseason.

Fortunately, the Broncos are matched up against an Oakland team that hasn't won on the road this season. If the Raiders are able to keep this game close and have success against Manning, it's time to hit the panic button. 

If not, then at least Denver can rest easy for two weeks until it plays again. 

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