College Football Playoff Championship 2015: Odds, Picks for Postseason Clashes
The initial College Football Playoff could not have been scripted any better.
It features a showdown between the past two Heisman winners and two of the most dynamic offenses in the country in the Rose Bowl. It features a showdown between arguably the game’s two best coaches and two of the biggest and most passionate fanbases in the Sugar Bowl.
It’s Buckeye Nation against Roll Tide and the defending champs against the no huddle, no mercy of Oregon.
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It’s also everything fans could have asked for this season. Here is a look at the essential information for both playoff games.
2015 Rose Bowl: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State
When: Thursday, Jan. 1, 2015
Where: Rose Bowl Stadium, Pasadena, California
Start Time (ET): 5 p.m.
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN
Odds: Oregon -9, via Odds Shark, as of Thursday at 10 p.m. ET
Preview
The headlines in the aftermath of the clash between Oregon and Florida State will undoubtedly revolve around the quarterback battle.
Jameis Winston won the Heisman Trophy in 2013 and leads a Florida State offense that came through in the fourth quarter throughout the season. Marcus Mariota leads the high-octane Oregon attack and took home the award this season.
Mariota dazzled all year and finished with 3,783 passing yards, 38 touchdown throws, 669 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. Perhaps most incredibly, he only threw two interceptions on the season in an offense that runs more plays than almost any other team.
It is not all about Mariota, though. Running back Royce Freeman ended up with 1,299 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns and will be an issue for a Florida State defense that proved vulnerable against the run against Georgia Tech, Boston College and others.
Look for Oregon to push the tempo from the start in an effort to wear the Seminoles defense down. Georgia Tech gashed Florida State for 331 rushing yards using misdirection and speed, and Oregon will do the same (even if it is with the read-option instead of the triple-option).
In order for the Seminoles to win, they will have to control the clock and keep Mariota on the sidelines. Running back Dalvin Cook is their best chance at doing that, but Florida State will eventually mix in some throws against an Oregon defense that was 103rd against the pass.
That Ducks defense got even worse with the loss of cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu to a torn ACL.
Guarding wide receiver Rashad Greene and tight end Nick O’Leary is never an easy task to begin with, and Oregon will have to do it without its best defender. The Seminoles will score some points in this one.
It is also worth watching how each team performs in the fourth quarter if it comes down to the wire considering Florida State was tested in almost every game this season and Oregon blew out the majority of its opponents. Cliche or not, the Seminoles are the more battle-tested team, which could play a small factor in the Rose Bowl.
Still, even that won’t be enough to counteract Florida State’s tendency to turn the ball over. America’s Pregame and David Hale of ESPN.com noted just how much of an advantage Oregon has in the turnover department:
"#FSU has turned the ball over 29 times this year, #Oregon has 120 points off turnovers. It is over for #FSU? https://t.co/n0pvh5ImZc
— America's Pregame (@AmericasPregame) December 17, 2014"
Look for Florida State to cough it up in the critical moments of the fourth quarter against a vulnerable but opportunistic Oregon defense. Mariota will parlay that into the game-clinching touchdown.
Prediction: Oregon 34, Florida State 24
2015 Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State
When: Thursday, Jan. 1, 2015
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
Start Time (ET): 8:30 p.m.
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: Watch ESPN
Odds: Alabama -9, via Odds Shark, as of Thursday at 10 p.m. ET
Preview
The Rose Bowl may be defined by the quarterback matchup, but the Sugar Bowl pits coaches Nick Saban and Urban Meyer against each other for the first time since Meyer was at Florida. The coaching may be the biggest storyline heading into the game, but whichever team plays better on the field will ultimately determine the winner.
Alabama brings superstar wide receiver Amari Cooper and his 1,656 receiving yards and 14 touchdown catches to the table. Throw in physically bruising running backs T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry, and the Buckeyes are going to have trouble slowing the Crimson Tide down.
Ohio State’s defense has been light years better than it was a season ago, but it is almost impossible to stop both the Alabama rushing attack and the passing game with Cooper. The Buckeyes’ best chance is through pressure from defensive linemen Joey Bosa and Michael Bennett, who are both future NFL draft picks and have terrorized opposing offensive lines all season.
Bosa ended up with a Big Ten-best 13.5 sacks and first-team Associated Press All-American honors, while Bennett was named a third-team Associated Press All-American and will be asked to swallow up the inside blockers of Alabama.
Of course, Ohio State hasn’t faced an Alabama line that only allowed 13 sacks all season, although Big Ten Championship Game opponent Wisconsin only gave up 12.
Ohio State’s co-defensive coordinator Chris Ash discussed Bosa’s impact, via Nicole Auerbach of USA Today:
"When I saw him last spring, I saw a very talented, inexperienced young player. We all talked as a staff that if Joey Bosa started to understand how to play the position, he was going to have a chance to be a dominant player. … The production has continued to improve over the course of the season. He's a great player, and if he continues to improve, he has room to continue to improve and can be an outstanding, dominant player at this level and at the next level.
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Even with Bosa and Bennett, Ohio State’s offense is going to have to score in this game because stopping Cooper and the running attack will be a tall order for the defense.
That may not be a problem for the fourth-best scoring offense in the country, although Alabama’s defense was fourth in the nation in points allowed per game. It's as if the storylines are writing themselves in this matchup.
Ohio State’s offense is predicated on running the ball, but Alabama is much better against the run than the pass (second in the nation against the run, 60th against the pass). The Buckeyes will use the run with the underrated Ezekiel Elliott to keep the Crimson Tide honest, but they are going to need to make plays through the air to win.
That means Devin Smith, Jalin Marshall and Michael Thomas will have to get open for quarterback Cardale Jones, who will be making only his second career start. The fact that it comes against the mighty Crimson Tide almost seems unfair for the youngster.
This one will not be a blowout by any stretch, as Jones will find Smith and Thomas for a number of big plays against a vulnerable secondary that is susceptible to deep routes. The problem is, either Cooper or the Alabama running game will be too much for the Buckeyes defense to handle for four quarters.
Prediction: Alabama 31, Ohio State 28
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