Jets vs. Dolphins: What Are Experts Saying About New York?
The New York Jets’ miserable season is almost over. In the big picture, this final game seems meaningless, but this could very well be Rex Ryan’s final game on the Jets sidelines.
You’d think most players are looking pass this game with their sights set on the offseason. However, Ryan is one of most well-liked coaches in the league, and it would be a surprise if the players didn't give their all in his honor.
All the speculation pointing to Ryan's exit will inspire his players to play one of their best games of the season. Is it enough inspiration to overcome a Miami Dolphins team with a better roster on paper?
Here’s a look at what the NFL experts are expecting, and some key factors that will impact New York’s season finale.
Darryl Slater: Percy Harvin and Nick Mangold Injured
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According to Darryl Slater of NJ.com, the Jets’ struggling offense could potentially take the field without Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold and wide receiver Percy Harvin.
According to Slater's report, Mangold has a high ankle sprain and Harvin has bruised ribs. Here’s Rex Ryan’s take on both injuries:
"I am not going to count them out, certainly," Ryan said of Mangold's and Harvin's statuses for the finale.
But, Ryan added, "If I was a betting man, I might look at a different option.
Ryan said Harvin's ribs aren't broken, but "he can't do a whole lot. He can't laugh or anything else. He has some pain there. I know it's a cartilage thing. It's painful."
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The Jets are 3-12, why play the only Pro Bowl player on the roster in a meaningless game? It makes perfect sense to sit Mangold on Sunday.
As for Harvin, he had so much to prove in a short period of time to justify his hefty price tag. His last flash of excellence was against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14, but the injury pushed him into irrelevance in the following two games.
Even though Harvin has much to play for Sunday because of his pending contract, he’ll likely sit out. According to Ryan, he can’t even laugh, or do a whole lot, so it’s hard to envision him playing another unproductive game in Miami Sunday.
For Harvin, a no-show is better than a poor showing.
Rich Cimini: Chris Ivory Injured During Practice
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According to ESPN.com reporter Rich Cimini, the Jets have added another prominent player on offense to the injury report. Chris Ivory suffered a hamstring injury during Wednesday’s practice. Ryan gave his players Christmas Day off, but it’s projected he’ll be limited for Friday’s practice.
Ivory’s status is uncertain, and the injury could hinder the Jets’ lead running back if he plays. This news compounded with the injuries to Mangold and Harvin decimates New York's woeful offense.
Miami’s defensive line will crush Geno Smith without his perennial Pro Bowl center, a severely limited starting wide receiver and a limited running back. New York’s offensive line has allowed 46 sacks this season. Smith took the hit on 27 of the 46 sacks.
The Jets’ underwhelming offense will struggle to move the ball if Sunday’s game bares any resemblance to the Monday Night Football hand-off game in Week 13.
Elliot Harrison: Dolphins Win 21-17
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NFL Media Analyst Elliot Harrison of NFL.com is in favor of a close game. At first glance he predicted a blowout loss for the Jets, but then factored in pride and the players' affection for their head coach:
"Originally, I had the Dolphins scoring more in this game. But I tell you what: The Jets are going to compete for their (allegedly) lame-duck head coach this weekend. I envision 40 rushing attempts and a couple of gadget plays -- like a surprise onside kick -- in an attempt to steal this game in Miami. The Dolphins can probably afford another slow start against this opponent, but one wonders if they will be able to match the Jets' intensity throughout the game -- especially given Ryan's situation. Meanwhile, Joe Philbin will stay around awhile. How about building some confidence in the fan base with a dominant showing? Something like 37-10 (instead of 37-35)? Well, I don't see it. #NYJvsMIA
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Harrison also sees this game as a replica of the first, when the Jets completely took the ball out of Smith’s hands. As the injuries mount for Gang Green, that’s probably a good idea for the upcoming game as well. He’s spot on with the foresight of a bunch of risky play calls and gadget plays from a team with nothing to lose.
Whether Ryan wins or loses, he’s definitely going out with a bang. This crash and burn type of coaching style will lead to an embarrassing loss or a thrilling win for the Jets.
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Bleacher Report Consensus Pick: Dolphins
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The Bleacher Report Consensus doesn’t put much stock into the players giving one last hurrah for their coach. AFC East Lead Writer Erik Frenz believes Miami’s talent will outweigh New York’s tenacious temperament:
"Don't tell these two teams that this is a meaningless game; the Jets are playing for the pride of their head coach, who is probably coaching his final game with the team, and the Dolphins are fighting to finish above .500 for the first time in a half decade. The Dolphins are the better team on both sides of the ball, though, and a home win appears to be in order.
Look for a big day from the Dolphins' defensive line as they tee off on Geno Smith behind a porous offensive front that's yielded 46 sacks (sixth-most in the NFL) this season.
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If the Jets were fully healthy, a final win for Ryan would be a more plausible result. As Frenz mentions, New York’s offensive line is weak, and Mangold likely won’t play.
Keep in mind players are still possibly playing for contract incentives in terms of a number sacks or tackles made to achieve bonuses.
The Jets' offensive line is already outmatched by the Dolphins' defensive line without incentive. Gang Green better hope defensive ends Cameron Wake (11.5 sacks) and Olivier Vernon (6.5 sacks) aren’t seeking bonuses for sack totals. If so, Smith will end the season picking his confidence off the ground.
NFL Live Picks: Split
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NFL Live is split on the outcome of the game without much context aside from pride and weather conditions. Damien Woody is sold on the rah-rah mentality helping the Jets to victory, Antonio Pierce is in favor of a Mortal Kombat “Finish Him” type of ending for Ryan.
Gang Green will play an inspired game from beginning to end, but it’s also important for the Dolphins to end on a high note.
New York isn’t the only team looking for a victory in a meaningless game. Both quarterback Ryan Tannehill and head coach Joe Philbin may have etched their names in Miami’s future for seasons to come, and they’re trying to build. Finishing above .500 is a big deal for a team that has failed to do so since 2008.
Tannehill is seeking to end his season as Smith ended last season, in impressive fashion. Expect the Dolphins to feature the former eighth overall pick in a big way against the Jets’ poor pass defense.
For Smith, it’s his last audition for the Jets and the entire league.
Unfortunately for the second-year quarterback, Marty Mornhinweg is still his offensive coordinator, the Dolphins’ pass defense is ranked fourth in the NFL and he’s not playing the New England Patriots, a team he competes well against. These factors will lead to a disappointing finale for Smith, Ryan and the Jets.
Prediction: Jets 19 – Dolphins 30
Advanced statistics provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com and espn.com
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