Key Matchups to Watch in Dolphins' Season Finale Against Jets
The Miami Dolphins will wrap up their season against the New York Jets on Sunday, with hopes of finishing above .500 for the first time since 2008. Miami is coming off a thrilling 37-35 victory over the Minnesota Vikings, while the Jets have won just one time since November 9.
Although Miami has shown it's the better team, Rex Ryan’s swan song as the Jets’ head coach likely means the Dolphins will get the Jets’ best effort. Just a week ago, Ryan’s Jets lost to the New England Patriots by one point, showing there is plenty of pride still in that locker room.
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In the first matchup between these two teams, Miami allowed 277 rushing yards in a sluggish performance that somehow yielded a 16-13 win. If Jets quarterback Geno Smith could have played any better, the Jets likely would have pulled the upset on Miami. His poor play and lack of development has hamstrung the franchise greatly this season.
Outside of Smith, the Jets have numerous impact players who can change games single-handedly. Some of those players had great games against the Dolphins earlier this year, while others are still key players who can give the Dolphins a difficult time.
We’re going to break down the four key individual matchups that will greatly affect Miami’s bid for its ninth victory against the Jets. If the Dolphins’ playmakers can provide a greater impact than the Jets’ playmakers, expect Miami to finish the season on a high note.
Jarvis Landry vs. Dawan Landry
One of the most consistent performers on the Dolphins’ roster this season has been rookie receiver Jarvis Landry. He’s racked up 79 receptions, 703 yards and five touchdowns as a slot extraordinaire. In his previous game against the Jets, Landry was targeted 11 times for eight receptions and 68 yards.
According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Jarvis Landry had the most success when covered by Jets safety Dawan Landry, totaling 33 yards on two catches. This isn’t a major surprise, as Dawan is an in-the-box player who excels against the run and doesn’t have even average fluidity in coverage. Miami should target him every chance possible.
For as well as Landry has played, his slot designation in the offense has somewhat limited his big-play abilities. He usually runs only a few routes every week, including slants, quick outs and curls. If Miami can get Jarvis lined up against a linebacker or Dawan, it should go deeper downfield and allow Jarvis to compete for the ball.
Impact players make game-breaking plays. Miami should allow Jarvis Landry to show whether he can be more than a possession slot receiver this week against Dawan.
Mike Pouncey vs. Sheldon Richardson
The 2014 season has been difficult for Mike Pouncey, who never seemed to fully recover from offseason hip surgery. He was willing to play right guard to help the team, but the results have been terrible. Pouncey has allowed three sacks and 24 quarterback hurries, according to Pro Football Focus.
His best performance shockingly came against Sheldon Richardson of the Jets in Week 13, allowing just two hurries, per PFF, to a lineman who is All-Pro worthy. Richardson is PFF’s second-highest graded 3-4 defensive end and has 29 quarterback hurries to go with his eight sacks. That’s tremendous pressure created by a 5-technique.
If Pouncey plays well again, the Dolphins offense will have a much easier time trying to sustain and convert drives against the talented Jets defense. New York boasts one of the most talented fronts in the NFL, but Richardson is the catalyst to that success. Contain him and the offense can flourish.
Earl Mitchell/Jared Odrick vs. Nick Mangold
After seemingly falling off the face of the Earth for a month, the Dolphins’ defensive tackle duo of Earl Mitchell and Jared Odrick have played much better the last two weeks. The results have been clear, too, as Miami’s run defense has been more effective. Miami’s allowed only 3.9 yards per carry the last two weeks with these two playing more effectively.
As Odrick faces free agency, he’ll have to battle the NFL’s best center in 2014, Nick Mangold. The Jets lack a quality offensive line, but Mangold has been terrific, allowing just four pressures and one sack in 563 pass plays, per PFF. That type of production has led to Mangold easily grading as the NFL’s best center by Pro Football Focus with a grade of 22.6.
Stuffing the run will likely be the Dolphins’ top concern on Sunday because of how well the Jets created running lanes in the first matchup. Mitchell and Odrick will be in the limelight as each has been so critical to the defense's early suffocation of the run game but also key issues (along with Randy Starks) as the run defense deteriorated.
Brent Grimes vs. Percy Harvin
If Miami is successful in clogging up the Jets’ running attack, Geno Smith will have the game in his hands. This should be good for Miami, as Smith lacks the talent to be a consistent starter at this time. But with a playmaker such as Percy Harvin, Miami could find themselves in trouble.
As the Dolphins found out in Week 13, Harvin is a dangerous weapon that can be used all over the field. Harvin had 27 yards on six run plays in their first showdown, and you can be sure that he’ll see an end-around or more this week after the Jets found so much success with the play previously.
Dolphins cornerback Brent Grimes was named to his second consecutive Pro Bowl this week, but his hands will be full with Harvin. Grimes’ play has dipped in recent weeks due to the Dolphins’ pass rush being ineffective but also because his foot speed and elite burst has diminished this year.
He’s still a very good cornerback and deserving of the Pro Bowl nod, but recent weeks have shown that Father Time is undefeated and unkind to 5’9” cornerbacks who rely on elite physical traits to be great. Against Harvin, this could be more evident.
Harvin is an elite speedster in his prime years, which could very well give Grimes huge issues. Grimes must compensate by staying technically sound and in great position to play the ball.
The Dolphins should be able to close out the season with another win, but the four key matchups listed above will be more indicative on the final result than any other. With the last game only coming down to pride, Miami has something to prove to itself and its bosses.
Thursday, we will look at the game plan for the Dolphins. Execution in both areas can ensure Miami a win.
All stats used are from Sports-Reference.com.
Ian Wharton is a Miami Dolphins Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, contributor for Optimum Scouting, and analyst for eDraft.
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