5 Bold Predictions for New England Patriots' Week 17 Matchup

For the New England Patriots, the regular-season finale against the Buffalo Bills will represent the calm before the storm.  The Pats have already sealed up home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs, and with nothing left to play for, Week 17's primary goal is to stay healthy and let banged-up players heal.

However, that does not mean Bill Belichick will allow the Pats to simply cruise into the postseason, especially given their slipshod effort against the New York Jets last week.  From offensive line play to designing better pressure schemes, the Patriots still have a few things to fine tune before the margin for error shrinks to nil during the playoffs.

New England will surely play to win, even if Belichick figures to limit many of his starters.  With that in mind, let's forecast some individual and team outcomes that could unfold on Sunday.

Rob Gronkowski Is Inactive

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Playing starters in these types of games is usually meant for fine-tuning purposes.  However, among all players on the roster, Rob Gronkowski probably has the least to prove in terms of recent performance.

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Gronkowski has played over 90 percent of the snaps in five consecutive games.  By virtually any measure, Gronk has returned to being the league's premier tight end while also proving he can carry a full-time workload.

Thus, unlike Tom Brady and the rest of the passing game, Gronkowski has essentially nothing to gain from suiting up on Sunday.  All 46 game-day members figure to receive some meaningful amount of playing time, so if Gronkowski only plays a series or two for the sake of "staying fresh," that's arguably a wasted spot that might force another regular contributor to bear a greater burden.

There's no indication yet that Gronkowski will sit, but the argument simply boils down to this: Unlike the majority of the players on the rest of the roster, Gronk has not tailed off the past few weeks and thus does not need any last-minute refinement. 

Moreover, sitting Gronk would allow the Pats to get a longer look at Tim Wright as a primary option in the offense.  Wright shined during New England's Week 8 contest against the Chicago Bears when Gronkowski left with dehydration, accruing a season-high seven catches for 61 yards and a touchdown.  The risk-reward benefit of keeping Gronk in the lineup simply doesn't add up, especially when factoring in Wright's promise.

Jimmy Garoppolo Plays Over Half the Snaps

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The last time the Pats clinched the No. 1 seed before Week 17, Tom Brady played the first half and the two possessions in the third quarter before permanently ceding way to then-backup Brian Hoyer.  Sunday's game once again figures to resemble the atmosphere of the third preseason game, as Jimmy Garoppolo should get his most extended action of the season.

As alluded to earlier, the Patriots have not tipped off their plans for how long their starters will play.  However, given Buffalo's fearsome pass rush coupled with New England's pass-protection struggles in recent weeks, it might be prudent to limit Brady's snaps.

That's not to say the Pats should totally shield their quarterback or the line, since they will likely face some premier pass-rushers during their playoff run.  However, as with Gronkowski, there is a risk-reward balance to consider between fine-tuning the offense and keeping everyone (especially Brady) healthy.

There won't be much to draw away from Garoppolo's showing, though a solid performance against an excellent Buffalo defense would be encouraging, especially considering how the Bills have flummoxed Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers in recent weeks. 

But given all the positive reports that surrounded the rookie second-rounder during training camp and preseason, it will be interesting to see if that produces any tangible results at the end of his first campaign.

Danny Amendola Reaches the End Zone

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This season has been bar none the worst of Danny Amendola's career, excluding the 2011 campaign he lost to a torn ACL.  But while it's too late for Amendola to salvage his season, the veteran slot receiver is showing signs that he could serve as a valuable insurance policy for a perilously thin wide receiver corps.

For what it's worth, Amendola has actually been slightly better on a per-play basis than he was in 2013.  From the slot, Amendola has caught 64.0 percent of his targets, up from 62.7 percent last season.  However, after being targeted on 23.3 percent of those slot routes last year, Amendola is receiving passes on just 11.5 percent of those routes this year.

That's largely circumstantial, though, as the Pats have shifted back to a primary two-tight end base with Rob Gronkowski healthy this season.  As a consequence, the three-receiver packages that were so prevalent at the end of last season have dropped severely in usage, making Amendola a bit player.

Nonetheless, his skill set overlap with Julian Edelman makes Amendola a natural replacement in case "Minitron" continues to suffer lingering concussion and/or thigh issues.  It may have been just a single game against a woeful secondary, but it's telling that Amendola led the team in both targets and receptions against the Jets, illustrating how his role is always going to be a focal point of the Pats offense.

With Edelman seemingly a logical candidate to sit out again, Amendola has another opportunity to serve as a primary target within the offense.  Considering the number of targets likely to sit out, there's a strong chance Amendola sets several season highs while also notching just his second touchdown of the season.

Rob Ninkovich Reaches 10 Sacks for the Season

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Rob Ninkovich isn't really underrated among Patriots fans anymore, even if few consider him among the premier edge-rushers in the league.  However, with exactly eight sacks in three consecutive seasons, Sunday offers Ninkovich a golden opportunity to eclipse that mark and hit double-digit sacks for the first time in his career.

The first meeting against Buffalo was Ninkovich's best game of the season, as he routinely abused rookie right tackle Seantrel Henderson for three sacks and four additional pressures.  His plus-2.1 pass-rushing grade that day was his second highest of the season, behind only a plus-2.7 effort two weeks later against the Bears. 

Henderson remains the starter for the Bills, but while the undrafted rookie has tremendous upside, he's simply overmatched in full-time duty.  Among tackles, Henderson's 94.3 percent pass-blocking efficiency ranks 36th out of 52 qualifiers.  That fellow rookie second-rounder Cyrus Kouandjio hasn't overtaken him likely says more about the Alabama product than Henderson's performance.

Kyle Orton had difficulties getting the ball to his first read in Week 6, as the Patriots defensive backs were quite effective in their press technique on Buffalo's undersized receiving corps.  If the secondary again forces Orton to hold the ball, look for Ninkovich to get the better of Henderson once more, even if the Pats decide to limit his snaps.

D Holds Buffalo Under 300 Total Yards

Source: Statmilk

This projection is probably a bit lofty, considering that the Patriots have held just one team, the San Diego Chargers, under 300 offensive yards since Week 5.  Nevertheless, this seems attainable against a Bills offense that has averaged just 4.97 yards per play since Orton took over in Week 5, the fifth-worst mark in the league during that span, per Pro-Football-Reference.

It's hard to envision the Bills moving the ball if they can't get the running game going and must rely on Orton in clear passing downs.  According to PFR, Buffalo has converted on just 20 percent of 3rd-and-7 or longer situations, the third-worst mark in the league this season.  The Bills offense is simply not built for Orton to carry the burden, especially when considering the Patriots' strength on the perimeter.

That's ominous when considering the upward swing in New England's run defense.  The Patriots have gotten significantly beefier in the interior with Alan Branch's midseason arrival and Sealver Siliga's return from short-term IR.  Over the past month, the Pats have allowed 3.7 yards per attempt, a big leap from their 4.18 average from the first 12 weeks.

Buffalo somehow compiled 13 rushing yards on 13 attempts against the Oakland Raiders' abysmal run defense, with some metrics ranking C.J. Spiller as Week 16's worst running back. 

While that's an outlier, it's not difficult to imagine New England shutting down Buffalo's running game—the Bills accrued just 2.96 yards per carry in the first meeting—and thus forcing Orton into uncomfortable down-and-distance situations that lead to plenty of short possessions.

*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).