5 Bold Predictions for the 49ers' Week 17 Matchup
The San Francisco 49ers play their final game of the regular season as they look to salvage something positive from a dismal season in their Week 17 matchup with the Arizona Cardinals.
San Francisco goes into the encounter having thrown a 21-point lead in a 38-35 overtime loss to the San Diego Chargers, a game that saw the offense once again struggle in the second half after producing its best performance of the campaign in the first half.
A combination of the disappointing second-half play on offense and a banged up defense contributed to the Niners' inability to hold on; however, there were plenty of silver linings from the loss.
Running back Frank Gore had his best game of the year, putting up 158 yards and a 52-yard touchdown run, which was only topped by a 90-yard scamper from Colin Kaepernick that marked the quarterback's first rushing touchdown of the season.
The offensive line allowed only two sacks, while rookie wideout Bruce Ellington had a rushing touchdown and a receiving score.
Arizona's defense is much better than that of the Chargers; however, it proved to be a vulnerable unit in the Week 16 defeat to the Seattle Seahawks, who finished the game with a franchise-record 596 offensive yards in a 35-6 rout.
With the Niners' season already effectively over, the attention has switched to the future of head coach Jim Harbaugh.
Fox Sports' Jay Glazer claims that the 49ers will cut ties with Harbaugh within 48 hours after the end of the regular season. If that is the case, then Harbaugh will undoubtedly want to end his largely successful tenure with San Francisco with a win.
Against the playoff-bound Cardinals, for whom rookie quarterback Logan Thomas will make his first start, the Niners will need a complete performance to make that happen. Can they deliver? Here I break down what we can expect from San Francisco's season finale with five bold predictions for this divisional matchup.
Both Teams to Record 5 Sacks
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The 49ers offensive line may have displayed considerable improvements in Week 16, but the fact remains that it has been unable to protect Kaepernick for the majority of the campaign.
Kaepernick is the most sacked quarterback in the league, having taken 51 in 2014. Those numbers can partly be attributed to changing personnel due to injuries on the offensive line and the spotty play of Kaepernick, who is continuing to have problems with holding on to the ball too long.
Indeed, 45 of Kaepernick's sacks, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), have come when he has spent at least 2.6 seconds in the pocket.
The San Francisco signal-caller did not come under as much pressure vs. San Diego but was still sacked twice, with one causing a fumble that was recovered by the Chargers for a touchdown.
And the Niners O-line is likely to face a much sterner test from the Cardinals, whose defense has 34 sacks on the year and will be led by outside linebacker Alex Okafor and defensive end Calais Campbell.
Okafor has recorded eight sacks in 2014, while Campbell is just one behind with seven.
It appears inevitable that Arizona, with its talent in pursuing the quarterback, should be able to get to the quarterback. The good news for 49er fans, though, is that Thomas possesses similar deficiencies to Kaepernick when it comes to avoiding the rush.
With his only significant NFL action coming in reserve of Drew Stanton in the Week 5 loss to the Denver Broncos, it is tough to get a read on how Thomas will perform. However, a scouting report from NFL.com's Nolan Nawrocki describes the fourth-round pick as "not elusive" and a player who "represents a big target for defenders."
Should Nawrocki's analysis hold true, then a pass rush that features Aldon Smith and exciting rookie Aaron Lynch should be able to bounce back from a disappointing performance in which the Niners posted only two sacks against the Chargers.
Neither Kaepernick nor Thomas is regarded as a skilled player at evading pressure. Expect the two defensive units to take advantage of that in a big way on Sunday.
Multiple Receiving Scores for Larry Fitzgerald
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The 49ers pass defense has been among the best in the league this season but struggled markedly against the Chargers.
With the sheer raft of injuries now clearly catching up with the San Francisco secondary, the back end of this unit is extremely vulnerable. That much was evident as Philip Rivers picked the Niners apart in San Diego's second-half fightback, which will give plenty of hope to Thomas.
Of course, Logan Thomas is not Philip Rivers, but while he may have just one completed pass—which went for a touchdown against Denver—he has the receivers who are capable of taking advantage of the injuries to the 49er secondary.
By his standards, the Cardinals' Larry Fitzgerald has had a quiet year, catching 61 passes for 755 yards and two touchdowns in 2014. However, his experience is likely to be vital to a novice like Thomas as he goes up against a defense that has still performed to an impressively high standard despite the high number of absentees.
According to Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee, cornerback Perrish Cox did not practice on Tuesday due to a shoulder injury, while free safety Eric Reid was also held back after suffering a concussion in the loss to San Diego. Starting corner Tramaine Brock, who has missed most of the year, did practice, although it remains to be seen whether he will be healthy enough to go.
Even with the prospective return of Brock, the Niners would be extremely thin at corner should Cox be unable to play. Craig Dahl would likely fill in for Reid, but he did a subpar job in doing so last Saturday, earning a grade of minus-3.4 from PFF.
Thomas will have deep threats in the form of John Brown and Michael Floyd. Yet, given his inexperience at the pro level, a safety net like Fitzgerald figures to be his favorite target.
Fitzgerald can still do damage underneath and on deep routes. And facing a secondary that has little left in terms of depth at corner and could field a backup at free safety, going into the playoffs, this is a good matchup for Fitzgerald to pad his stats with a multiple-touchdown game.
Another Rushing Touchdown for Colin Kaepernick
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Aside from the superb performance from Frank Gore, the highlight of the 49ers' loss to the Chargers was Kaepernick's stunning touchdown run that ended a long drought for arguably the most athletic quarterback in the NFL.
The score served as a magnificent illustration of Kaepernick's physical abilities and a reminder of what the Niners have been missing while the former Nevada man has been kept in check for the vast majority of the campaign.
Most would expect it to be tough for Kaepernick to repeat that feat against Arizona, but as Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson showed, the Cardinals are susceptible to the mobile quarterback.
Wilson does not possess the same size and speed as Kaepernick yet was still able to put up 88 yards on the ground as Seattle completely dismantled the Cardinals.
Although the Niners will understandably be keen to avoid any further major injuries going into the offseason, the success they enjoyed on the ground in Week 16 may convince offensive coordinator Greg Roman to open things up and give Kaepernick the chance to do more damage with his legs.
Kaepernick is a threat from the designed quarterback run and the broken play, and Arizona will surely avoid repeating the mistake of the Chargers who, according to Kaepernick (h/t 49ers.com), did not deploy a specific player to spy him.
Seattle and Wilson in particular made light work of a defense that had carried the Cardinals for the majority of the campaign. Kaepernick has the capability to do the exact same thing and is a good bet to be celebrating in the end zone again if the Niners are able to have success on the ground.
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100-Yard Games for Frank Gore and Anquan Boldin
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It may have been a dreadful year for the 49ers offense, but two of its players are closing in on 1,000-yard seasons.
Both Gore and wide receiver Anquan Boldin continue to lead by example for the Niners and are not far away from at least earning some individual reward for their efforts. After his big day against the Chargers, Gore has 962 yards on the ground, while Boldin has 981 receiving yards to his name in 2014.
For Gore Sunday's clash may represent his farewell game for the 49ers. San Francisco's all-time leading rusher is a free agent in the offseason, although—per Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area—general manager Trent Baalke is keen to ensure that Gore returns to the Niners for at least another year.
The 31-year-old has seven 1,000-yard seasons in his career, and with his long and distinguished career in the Bay perhaps coming to an end, he will undoubtedly be determined to make it eight.
Arizona is ranked at No. 8 in the NFL versus the rush but gave up 201 yards and three touchdowns on the ground to the Seahawks, numbers that should leave Gore and his improving offensive line salivating.
Gore is not as explosive as Lynch; however, he has the patience and the vision to make big gains and finish the season—and possibly his Niners career—with another three-figure showing to comfortably take him past the 1,000-yard mark.
If Gore is able to enjoy success, then that should open things up underneath for Boldin, who will surely be eager to enjoy a strong outing versus his former team. As Kaepernick's favorite target, he should have plenty of opportunities to do so.
Indeed, Boldin has been thrown at 115 times this season, per PFF, and has caught 81 of those, resulting in a catch percentage of 70.4. The Cardinals possess two impressive cornerbacks in Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie. But, although the numbers are likely to have been skewed by the Week 16 shellacking, Arizona is still ranked at No. 30 in the league in pass defense.
Boldin has the veteran experience and the ability to take advantage of a secondary that was brutally exposed by the Seahawks. Do not be surprised if the two primary bright spots on the Niners offense reach the century mark this Sunday.
Final Prediction
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Back in Week 3, the Cardinals overturned a halftime deficit to beat the 49ers 24-13 in Glendale as San Francisco's offense failed to get anything going in the second half.
That has been a theme of the season for the Niners, and their second-half struggles were apparent again as they stuttered on offense in the final two quarters against San Diego, allowing the Chargers to mount a spectacular fightback.
Even with Thomas at quarterback for the Cardinals, if the 49ers want to finish the season strongly, then they must perform for the full 60 minutes versus an Arizona team that has displayed great spirit throughout the campaign.
Despite his limitations, Thomas has the raw skill set to capitalize on the injuries on the 49ers defense, which will operate without any of its top three inside linebackers in Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman and Chris Borland and is severely depleted in the secondary.
While I expect Thomas to have some success, it is tough to see a project quarterback doing enough to take the game away from the 49ers, especially with the defense featuring skilled pass-rushers off the edge in Aldon Smith and Lynch.
The Cardinals still have the small matter of the NFC West to play for; however, they will be coming up against a Niners team possessing plenty of motivation to finish the season strongly and ensure victory in what could prove to be the final game for Harbaugh and Gore as members of the 49er organization.
On paper, this game is more important for the Cardinals, yet I think the Niners will edge this one and send Arizona limping into the postseason.
Prediction: Cardinals 21, 49ers 27
All statistics courtesy of NFL.com unless otherwise stated.
Nicholas McGee is a San Francisco 49ers Featured Columnist based in Leeds, England. Follow him on Twitter @nicholasmcgee24.
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