Poinsettia Bowl 2014: Predictions and Key Battles Sure to Decide Navy vs. SDSU

Two contrasting yet effective styles of football duel in one of the most exciting pre-Christmas bowl games when the Navy Midshipmen battle the San Diego State Aztecs in the Poinsettia Bowl.

It's not technically a home game for the Aztecs, but it should feel like one. They'll be playing on the same Qualcomm Field on which they went a perfect 6-0 this season, albeit with some different field paint and slightly non-unanimous crowd support.

Winning three of four to close out the season has San Diego State full of confidence, but it will have to go through a Navy team with a daunting triple option, and the Midshipmen are out for revenge after a 35-14 defeat in this same bowl in 2010.

Here's a quick table for what you need to know for the Poinsettia Bowl, followed by a breakdown of the game.

Date	Poinsettia Bowl	Spread	Time (ET)	TV
Dec. 23	Navy vs. San Diego State	SDSU -3	9:30 p.m.	ESPN

Note: Odds courtesy of Odds Shark, last updated December 22

Navy's Keenan Reynolds vs. San Diego State's Front Six

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

You know it's coming, but there's simply no way of stopping it. You can only contain it.

It's the triple option, and few players in the nation run it more smoothly than Navy's Keenan Reynolds.

The quarterback has rushed more than twice as many times as he's thrown this season, and he's had striking success. He has 1,182 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns on the ground, and he already has more career touchdowns (62) than any quarterback in NCAA history.

Along with two fullbacks who get high usage in the offense, the Midshipmen's triple option is in full effect heading into San Diego. 

The Aztecs will have to hope their unconventional 3-3-5 defensive scheme is able to hold up. They allow 145.6 yards per game rushing this season—nearly 200 fewer yards than Navy averages.

As San Diego State coach Rocky Long said of the matchup between Navy's offense and SDSU's defense, it will be memorable, per Ruben Meza of Rivals.com:

For Reynolds, facing such a defense could either open things up for bigger plays or complicate things. SDSU will be sure to send a few of its defensive backs in pursuit, meaning the quarterback will have mismatches down the field to exploit.

Reynolds isn't one to do so, with just over 800 passing yards on the season, but he'll largely be able to catch the Aztecs off guard by making the right decisions off the snap in the triple option. Either way, he'll need to be crisp against a defense sending multiple looks at him.

SDSU's Donnel Pumphrey vs. Navy LBs

Otto Kitsinger/Associated Press

With a quarterback who has fewer touchdown passes than games started on the season, the Aztecs offense mimics Navy's in that both rely heavily upon the run. 

But for the Midshipmen to halt San Diego State's rushing attack, they can simply aim to slow down Donnel Pumphrey.

There may not be a more underrated player in the nation, as the running back ranks third nationally with 1,755 rushing yards on the season (a 6.9 average) and 19 touchdowns on a workhorse-like 255 carries. When he gets going, backup Chase Price (130 carries, 605 yards) keeps the offense rolling, and quarterback Quinn Kaehler can make teams pay with play action.

What makes the play of the Navy linebackers—seniors such as Jordan Drake, Chris Johnson and Obi Uzoma—so important is that they can limit Pumphrey at the point of attack. Running lanes will open, and the Midshipmen have the personnel at the second level to fill them. 

But they must fill them in a heartbeat against one of the best rushers in the country.

If they're able to do so early, it could set a tone and help take Pumphrey out of the game. It's hard to see Navy's offense not taking advantage if that turns out to be the case through a quarter or two.

Prediction

The Aztecs may be too reliant on Pumphrey, but you can afford to do that with a durable talent who is surrounded by a balanced offense. That's exactly what SDSU has, and it will prove to be the difference.

Navy's triple option will dazzle at times, but it won't stand up for four quarters against a physical and underrated San Diego State defense allowing just 20 points per contest. The Midshipmen won't get worn down despite a physical Aztec running game and will fight to the end, but it won't be enough to get revenge for 2010.

Prediction: San Diego State 31, Navy 27