NBA Rookie Ladder: How the Top 10 Stack Up Entering Christmas
The 2014-15 NBA rookie ladder seems to be losing its luster by the week. Jabari Parker has officially joined Julius Randle on the season-ending injury list, while Joel Embiid, Aaron Gordon and Doug McDermott all remain sidelined recovering from injuries of their own.
On the bright side, we did see some improvement made by others, while a new member has been added at No. 9 on our ladder.
At this point, the NBA Rookie of the Year race now appears to be down to three contenders (No. 1 through No. 3 on our ladder). And make sure to keep an eye on Marcus Smart in Boston, who returned after missing time earlier in the year.
These rankings are based on how each rookie is performing in 2014-15—not his long-term potential. It's possible that No. 7 on our board is a better prospect than No. 3. But at this point, we're only evaluating these rookies as current NBA players.
Honorable Mention: Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks, SF/PF
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Had Jabari Parker still been active, he'd be sitting atop the ladder as the 2015 Rookie of the Year favorite.
Parker was rolling before suffering a season-ending torn ACL, having shot 58.9 percent in December.
Through 25 games, he averaged 12.3 points, which currently leads all rookies. And he did so with relative efficiency—Parker has taken 33 fewer shots than Andrew Wiggins, the second-leading scorer among rookies, yet still has 15 more made field goals.
That strong, 235-pound frame certainly played to his advantage. Parker finished at a terrific 70.7 percent clip in the restricted area, while 94 of his 129 buckets were converted in the paint.
And his perimeter game started coming around, though we didn't see Parker in much of a stretch role (just 13.7 percent of his attempts came on catch-and-shoot opportunities), having hit just four three-pointers all season. But he ended up shooting a respectable 37.3 percent in the mid-range while showcasing that polished one-on-one attack, from pull-ups and step-backs to fallaways in the post.
Parker had emerged as the top dog in the class just before going down. It could be awhile before we get to see him back in action, but his play through 25 games only validated our projection out of Duke: Parker looks like a strong franchise cornerstone for the Bucks to successfully build with or around.
10. Tarik Black, Houston Rockets, PF
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Tarik Black has done an admirable job filling in, as he's given the Rockets a physical interior presence. In 15.7 minutes a game he's averaged 2.3 offensive rebounds and 5.1 altogether.
But with Dwight Howard back in the lineup, Black's role has been reduced dramatically. The fact that Houston has emerged as a strong suitor for recently cut forward Josh Smith, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, doesn't bode well for Black's future either.
Still, it was a good run for Black, who proved he could hold his own under the NBA boards after going undrafted back in June. Just don't be surprised if this is the last time we see Black on the 2014-15 rookie ladder.
9. Jusuf Nurkic, Denver Nuggets, C
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A JaVale McGee injury has opened the door for Jusuf Nurkic, who's officially found the ladder after a late December run.
He's managed to grab 5.4 rebounds in an average of 15.2 minutes through seven games this month. That translates to a 20 percent rebounding percentage, good for No. 11 in the entire NBA.
Nurkic takes up a ton of space under the boards, where he's got quick feet, broad shoulders and giant magnets for hands.
Offensively, he's most comfortable working back to the basket, where he uses his massive 280-pound frame to gain position and over-the-shoulder touch to convert.
Nurkic was dominant at times as a teenager last year playing against grown men in the Adriatic League, which he led in player efficiency rating. His physical tools are flat-out overwhelming for any big man, regardless of age.
With McGee hurt, look for Nurkic to capitalize and ultimately start making his way up the rookie ladder.
8. Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic, PG
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Elfrid Payton continues to struggle putting the orange in the basket, but he's at least setting the table for teammates and taking care of the ball.
He's averaging 5.3 assists to only 1.9 turnovers in December.
Payton's signature game of the month came Friday against the Utah Jazz, when he double-doubled with 11 points and 11 dimes on 5-of-7 shooting.
Unfortunately, he followed by shooting 0-of-7 from the floor in a loss to the Philadelphia 76ers.
As a point guard, it's just tough to get away with a broken jumper when you're seeing 24.7 minutes per game. Despite plenty of playing time, he's only made 13 shots outside 15 feet all year.
Payton can't even convert from the free-throw line, where he's shooting an ugly 47.1 percent. He even tossed up two air balls in a row against the Los Angeles Clippers on December 3.
Payton's offense is clearly still a major work in progress, but he does look like a solid defender thanks to his size, athleticism and length for the position. And that's helped make up for a lack of scoring ability.
7. Zach LaVine, Minnesota Timberwolves, PG/SG
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With Ricky Rubio on the shelf, Zach LaVine has done a nice job filling in, relatively speaking.
He's shooting 39.1 percent, which was to be expected from a 19-year-old, 180-pound combo guard who was used in just 20.1 percent of UCLA's possessions as a freshman off the bench.
But LaVine's spectacular athleticism and bounce, as well as some microwave shot-making ability, have allowed him to hold his own and even put up a few big lines over the past month.
In December, he's picked up at least five assists five different times and scored in double digits on six separate occasions.
LaVine's shot selection isn't exactly lovable, with 46.2 percent of his looks coming on pull-ups outside 10 feet. And at this stage, he's merely a streak shooter capable of randomly catching fire. But when they're falling, watch out—LaVine has takeover ability, like he showcased late in November against the Los Angeles Lakers, when he dropped 28 points in eye-opening fashion.
The upside he's flashed, along with the production he's put up over the past few weeks, is certainly enough for him to earn a spot on the crumbling rookie ladder. Though still a project, it's good to see LaVine fit in this early in his career.
6. Dante Exum, Utah Jazz, PG/SG
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With Dante Exum, it's not as much about the production as it is about the eye test, which he rates pretty high on, despite his pedestrian numbers and stats.
And now it looks like his minutes are on the rise after he scored 12 points against the New Orleans Pelicans and 10 against the Miami Heat on a combined 9-of-12 in back-to-back games.
Exum has been shooting it extremely well, as he's hit 46.2 percent of his threes (12-of-26) in December.
As a point guard, he's done a nice job of looking for teammates, whether he's coming off ball screens or just making the extra pass.
But playing behind Trey Burke, Exum hasn't been as aggressive as we'd like in terms of creating off the dribble. He's taking just 1.7 drives per game, while he's made only two shots in the mid-range all season long.
Too often, you'll catch him standing around the arc, waiting for a spot-up three-point attempt. He's actually taken 15 more threes than two-pointers so far on the year.
"It's not OK for him to be passive, just to be out there. ... I want him to attack. He's got the freedom to make mistakes," said coach Quin Snyder via the Deseret News' Jody Genessy.
If Burke continues to underwhelm, it would only make sense for Quin to extend Exum's minutes and playmaking leash. Between his athleticism, basketball IQ and defensive potential, his ceiling sits about three stories higher than Utah's current starter.
And at some point, it might be wise to start making him the priority, even if it costs the team a few games this season.
5. Bojan Bogdanovic, Brooklyn Nets, SF
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Bojan Bogdanovic's role has steadily decreased over the last month, and it's led to a slide down the rookie ladder.
He's averaging just 6.7 points in December. If his three-point jumper isn't on, neither is his offense. In the six December games that Bogdanovic finished with five points or less, he's a combined 3-of-15 from downtown. In the five he's scored more than five, he's averaged 11.5 points on 10-of-17 behind the arc.
Bogdanovic doesn't do much else outside of stretching the floor as a shooter and finishing plays off cuts and transition opportunities. The fact that 69.1 percent of his shots are taken off zero dribbles highlights his lack of one-on-one scoring ability.
And with 66.5 percent of his looks coming outside 10 feet, Bogdanovic's effectiveness is really tied to the accuracy of his jumper, given he doesn't create, rebound or defend overly well.
He's got the ability to connect from anywhere on the floor, but inconsistent shooting has hurt his overall value to the team.
4. Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers, PF/C
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It's been the same story for Nerlens Noel through roughly two months of NBA hoops. Alternating ugly weeks with good ones, Noel is currently in the midst of a hot streak, which started with his best game of the year against the Boston Celtics on November 15, when he finished with 19 points, eight boards, four assists, two blocks and three steals.
He scored off two pick-and-rolls, a lefty jump hook, a floater, a tip-in, a putback slam, two mid-range jumpers and a catch-and-finish. Now if he could only threaten the defense from this many angles on an every-game basis, we could be talking about a legitimate two-way weapon.
One of Noel's biggest issues continues to be finishing at the rim, which was supposed to be his offensive bread-and-butter coming out of Kentucky. But at 228 pounds, he's had trouble converting in traffic, as he's shooting just 55.8 percent within five feet—not a good enough number for a below-average post scorer and shooter.
Defensively, we're starting to learn that it's Noel's ability to cover ground that might hold more value than his rim protection. As Sixers writer Derek Bodner points out, Noel is second in the league in steal percentage (behind Anthony Davis) among players 6'10" or taller.
Noel's unpolished offensive game will likely continue to result in inconsistency, but between his underrated passing ability and defensive versatility, he still brings something to the table on off nights.
3. K.J. McDaniels, Philadelphia 76ers, SF
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After an eye-opening month of November, K.J. McDaniels has taken a small step backward, as he's shooting just 31.9 percent and 16.7 percent from downtown in December.
You had to know this was coming. McDaniels was a poor shooter for most of his three-year career at Clemson, making his hot start from behind the arc seem a bit fluky.
What doesn't look fluky is his defensive playmaking ability. McDaniels, a 6'6" wing, led the ACC in shot blocking as a junior, and he's currently the leader among rookies averaging 1.6 a game.
McDaniels' defensive ability and open-floor athleticism currently fuel his impact and purpose, but if he's able to start knocking down a few more open jumpers, it would go a long way toward his value as a Three-and-D wing.
2. Nikola Mirotic, Chicago Bulls, PF
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The Chicago Bulls have finally unleashed Nikola Mirotic, and it's paying off. He just put up arguably the most impressive rookie performance of the year—a 27-point, eight-rebound line in a road win over the Memphis Grizzlies.
He hit 6-of-6 from downtown, including a couple of big ones in the fourth quarter. Of the six, I counted a pick-and-pop, two spot-ups, a step-back, a pull-up and one coming off a screen.
It wasn't just the shooting either. Mirotic showed the ability to put the ball on the floor and make things happen off the dribble, as he got to the line eight times and picked up an assist on a drive-and-kick.
In the month of December, he's now averaging 11.1 points and 5.9 rebounds on 42.4 percent shooting from downtown in 21.4 minutes.
Though not much of a one-on-one scorer, Mirotic's ability to stretch the floor and knock down the shots that find him in the offense holds plenty of value in Chicago's lineup. I'd imagine we'll continue seeing him out there playing big minutes for the Bulls, which could give him a realistic shot to finish atop the rookie ladder.
He currently leads the field with a 17.9 PER.
1. Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves, SG/SF
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With Jabari Parker out for the year, the 2015 Rookie of the Year odds have suddenly shifted in Andrew Wiggins' favor.
He's officially the new leader among rookies in scoring, averaging 12 points a game.
But Wiggins is currently in a funk—he's made just 11 of 39 shots from the floor over his last four games, and it's brought his field-goal clip on the year down to 38.5 percent.
At 200 pounds, Wiggins is clearly more comfortable on the perimeter than he is trying to score off one foot in traffic. He's taken 146 shots in the mid-range to 88 at the rim, where he's only shooting 54.5 percent.
Wiggins is also converting just 20 percent of his drives, scoring a measly one point per game on them altogether.
As a shooter, he's appeared capable yet erratic, having made 51 jump shots (12 threes) at a 31.5 percent clip.
The good news: Wiggins' ability to get to and finish at the rim should only improve as his handle tightens and body fills out. And despite an on-and-off jumper, his mechanics look clean, while he's showcased some impressive one-on-one shot creativity and legitimate three-point range.
There are going to be bumps along the way as he develops physically and fundamentally.
With Wiggins it's all about long-term potential, and though it's come in spurts, he continues to flash the upside that led the Cleveland Cavaliers to initially select him No. 1 in the 2014 draft.
Stats are current through Dec. 22 games and courtesy of Sports-Reference.com, NBA.com and RealGM unless otherwise noted.
