Philadelphia Eagles 2014 Regression Was Easy to See Coming

Three weeks ago, when the Philadelphia Eagles were sitting on a 9-3 record, it was almost unthinkable they could miss the playoffs.

All of a sudden, the club is now 9-6 and eliminated from postseason contention.

I’m not sure anybody saw such a monumental freefall coming at the time, but the fact that the Eagles did regress in 2014 should come as no surprise. After all, they rode a wave of good fortune—or luck, for lack of a better word—to a division title and playoff berth in the first place last season.

Philadelphia was blessed with one of the easiest schedules in the NFL in 2013. The roster sustained almost no major injuries for the duration of that season.

As if that wasn’t enough, the Eagles were the recipients of a historic quarterback performance from the most unlikely of sources.

Which aspect of that scenario was likely to repeat?

Add in the fact that the Eagles returned 20 of 22 starters from a squad that won only 10 games and made a first-round playoff exit to begin with—not to mention were relying heavily on numerous key contributors approaching or already in their 30s—and the team’s collapse isn’t really such a surprise.

The simple reality is the Eagles did not significantly upgrade their lineup during the offseason. There were minor additions to a secondary that ranked last in the NFL against the pass in 2013, as well as upgrades to special teams and overall depth.

They also cut their most productive wide receiver, then drafted almost exclusively for the future.

There were no illusions about the vast majority of these rookies and their hopes of contributing this season.

In other words, the Eagles entered 2014 with roughly the same level of talent at the top of the depth chart—only a year older—and apparently counted on the pieces falling into place for a second year in a row.

Things rarely work out that way in the NFL.

In 2013, Philadelphia set a franchise record for fewest turnovers in a season with 19, the catalyst being Nick Foles’ unprecedented 27 touchdowns and only two interceptions under center.

Everybody knew full well that Foles and the quarterback position in general would be responsible for more giveaways over the course of ’14, though.

Either Foles was going to become a Hall of Famer essentially overnight, in his third professional season, or he was going to throw more interceptions—because legitimately nobody had ever done what he did before.

The Eagles also escaped a lot of meaningful or lengthy injuries in ’13. Sure, wide receiver Jeremy Maclin went down early in training camp. Beyond that, though, the team didn’t lose a single quality starter for an extended period of time last season.

Last year, all five starting offensive linemen started 16 games. This year, four of the five missed at least four games. Interior linebackers Mychal Kendricks and DeMeco Ryans have also been on the shelf for stretches. Foles hasn’t even played since Week 8.

It might not be coincidence that Ryans, along with offensive guards Evan Mathis and Todd Herremans, are all in their 30s and missed extensive time with injuries.

As for the schedule, Philadelphia’s opponents were 115-139-2 in 2013, a .449 winning percentage—tied for the second-easiest slate in the league.

That’s before you consider they caught the Green Bay Packers without Aaron Rodgers and the Dallas Cowboys without Tony Romo.

In 2014, Eagles opponents are still below .500—barely, at .488—but the Birds haven’t caught big breaks in terms of injuries to opposing signal-callers. Plus, the Cowboys are a legitimately good team this year, which made winning the NFC East more difficult than many prognosticators imagined.

More turnovers. More injuries. Tougher opponents. Older roster.

Is it any wonder the Eagles seem to have taken a step back in 2014?

In truth, the Eagles are probably as good as or better than last year’s team that actually reached the postseason. The difference is they were nowhere near as fortunate, or lucky, or whatever you choose to call it.

That’s not an excuse, either. Elite teams, the actual championship contenders, don’t need luck just to make the playoffs. The Eagles did in 2013, which is why the hype surrounding this group entering 2014 was never warranted from the beginning.