Bowl Games 2014-15: Schedule and Predictions for Games with Closest Spreads
Bowl season officially kicked off with five games taking place on Saturday, and we've already experienced a wide array of conclusions, from Utah's 45-10 drubbing of Colorado State to a stunning 33-28 last-minute victory by Bowling Green over South Alabama.
Those games were only a taste of what's to come. A bevy of enticing matchups have yet to take place, as bowl season resumes Monday with a clash between BYU and Memphis in the Miami Beach Bowl. The minimal two-point spread in that game is just one of many close lines bettors must be wary of throughout the remainder of the year.
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In an effort to provide some clarity for potential wagers on those tough spreads, let's take a look at some in-depth analysis for a few that are likely to be more one-sided than Las Vegas thinks. However, before we delve into those predictions, here's a breakdown of the updated odds and schedule for all remaining bowl games.
| Miami Beach Bowl | BYU vs. Memphis | Dec. 22 | 2 p.m. | ESPN | MEM, -2 |
| Boca Raton Bowl | Marshall vs. Northern Illinois | Dec. 23 | 6 p.m. | ESPN | MAR -10 |
| San Diego County CU Poinsettia Bowl | Navy vs. San Diego State | Dec. 23 | 9:30 p.m. | ESPN | SDSU -2.5 |
| Popeyes Bahamas Bowl | Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan | Dec. 24 | 12 p.m. | ESPN | WKU -3 |
| Sheraton Hawaii Bowl | Rice vs. Fresno State | Dec. 24 | 8 p.m. | ESPN | Rice, -2.5 |
| Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl | Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech | Dec. 26 | 1 p.m. | ESPN | LT -6 |
| Quick Lane Bowl | Rutgers vs. North Carolina | Dec. 26 | 4:30 p.m. | ESPN | UNC -3 |
| BITCOIN St. Petersburg Bowl | NC State vs. UCF | Dec. 26 | 8 p.m. | ESPN | UCF -2.5 |
| Military Bowl | Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati | Dec. 27 | 1 p.m. | ESPN | CIN -3 |
| Hyundai Sun Bowl | Duke vs. Arizona State | Dec. 27 | 2 p.m. | CBS | ASU -7.5 |
| Duck Commander Independence Bowl | Miami (Fl.) vs. South Carolina | Dec. 27 | 3:30 p.m. | ABC | UM -3.5 |
| New Era Pinstripe Bowl | Boston College vs. Penn State | Dec. 27 | 4:30 p.m. | ESPN | BC -2.5 |
| National University Holiday Bowl | Nebraska vs. USC | Dec. 27 | 8 p.m. | ESPN | USC -7 |
| AutoZone Liberty Bowl | West Virginia vs. Texas A&M | Dec. 29 | 2 p.m. | ESPN | WVU -3.5 |
| Russell Athletic Bowl | Clemson vs. Oklahoma | Dec. 29 | 5:30 p.m. | ESPN | OU -3 |
| AdvoCare Texas Bowl | Texas vs. Arkansas | Dec. 29 | 9 p.m. | ESPN | ARK -6 |
| Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl | Notre Dame vs. LSU | Dec. 30 | 3 p.m. | ESPN | LSU -7.5 |
| Belk Bowl | Louisville vs. Georgia | Dec. 30 | 6:30 p.m. | ESPN | UGA -7 |
| Foster Farms Bowl | Maryland vs. Stanford | Dec. 30 | 10 p.m. | ESPN | STAN -14 |
| Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl | Ole Miss vs. TCU | Dec. 31 | 12:30 p.m. | ESPN | TCU -3 |
| Vizio Fiesta Bowl | Boise State vs. Arizona | Dec. 31 | 4 p.m. | ESPN | ARI -3 |
| Capital One Orange Bowl | Mississippi State vs. Georgia Tech | Dec. 31 | 8 p.m. | ESPN | MIST -7 |
| Outback Bowl | Wisconsin vs. Auburn | Jan. 1 | 12 p.m. | ESPN2 | AUB -7 |
| Goodyear Cotton Bowl | Michigan State vs. Baylor | Jan. 1 | 12:30 p.m. | ESPN | BAY -2.5 |
| Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl | Minnesota vs. Missouri | Jan. 1 | 1 p.m. | ABC | MIZZ -5 |
| Rose Bowl Game | Oregon vs. Florida State | Jan. 1 | 5 p.m. | ESPN | ORE -9 |
| Allstate Sugar Bowl | Alabama vs. Ohio State | Jan. 1 | 8:30 p.m. | ESPN | ALA -9.5 |
| Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl | Pittsburgh vs. Houston | Jan. 2 | 12 p.m. | ESPN | PITT -3 |
| TaxSlayer Bowl | Iowa vs. Tennessee | Jan. 2 | 3:20 p.m. | ESPN | TENN -3.5 |
| Valero Alamo Bowl | Kansas State vs. UCLA | Jan. 2 | 6:45 p.m. | ESPN | UCLA -1.5 |
| Cactus Bowl | Oklahoma St. vs.Washington | Jan. 2 | 10:15 p.m. | ESPN | WASH -5.5 |
| Birmingham Bowl | Florida vs. East Carolina | Jan. 3 | 1 p.m. | ESPN2 | FLA -7 |
| GoDaddy Bowl | Toledo vs. Arkansas State | Jan. 4 | 9 p.m. | ESPN | TOL -3.5 |
| College Football Championship Game | TBD | Jan. 12 | 8:30 p.m. | ESPN | TBD |
All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of December 21.
Valero Alamo Bowl
Kansas State vs. UCLA (-1.5)
Kansas State opened up as a 2.5-point favorite in the Alamo Bowl but have since shifted to slight underdogs. It's easy to see why UCLA opened as underdogs; it finished the regular season with a disastrous 31-10 loss to Stanford. However, it's also easy to see why the team is now favored.
Despite that terrible outing prior to the bowl season, UCLA was playing some very solid football, winning five consecutive games, which included wins over No. 12 Arizona and No. 19 USC. A big reason for that streak was the improved play of quarterback Brett Hundley, who accounted for 14 total touchdowns and just two interceptions during that stretch.
Kansas State has struggled at times against the pass this season, ranking 78th in the nation and allowing an average of 236.8 passing yards per game along with a total of 19 touchdowns through the air. However, Hundley will need a big game to keep up with a well-rounded Kansas State team.
The Wildcats play a balanced brand of football, ranking 22nd in points scored and 27th in points allowed. Kansas State features a versatile quarterback of its own in Jake Waters. The senior signal-caller has been playing some very efficient football all season long, completing 66.2 percent of his passes for 3,163 yards, 20 touchdowns and just six interceptions—he's also rushed for 471 yards and eight scores.
Considering the Bruins rank 76th in the nation by allowing 27.5 points per game and 69th in total defense, giving up 401.0 yards per game, the Wildcats have a much better opportunity to move the ball and get points on the board. Vegas had this spread correct out of the gate.
Prediction: Kansas State 27, UCLA 24
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Boston College (-2.5) vs. Penn State
Don't expect to see too much offense in the Pinstripe Bowl, as both Boston College and Penn State boast two of the nation's best defenses. The Nittany Lions rank eighth, allowing just 17.7 points per game, and the Eagles rank 17th, allowing 20.5 points per game.
While Penn State does boast the nation's top run defense, allowing an average of just 2.56 yards per carry and 84.8 yards per game, it will have a difficult time containing Boston College dual-threat quarterback Tyler Murphy. On the season, Murphy has accumulated 11 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns. However, he's also thrown 10 interceptions.
Murphy's turnovers are a cause for concern against a Nittany Lions team that has 16 interceptions on the season, but the quarterback has been more efficient of late, throwing zero picks in seven of his last eight games. This is due to a run-heavy scheme featuring the duo of Murphy and running back Jon Hilliman.
Penn State may have a prolific defense, but it lacks firepower on the offensive side of the ball. Quarterback Christian Hackenberg has thrown eight touchdowns against 15 interceptions on the season. Without a reliable passing game, it will be difficult for Penn State to open up running lanes for its backs against Boston College's fourth-ranked run defense.
Neither of these teams will give up many yards or points, but the Eagles have an offense that gives them the better chance of emerging victorious.
Prediction: Boston College 20, Penn State 13
Cotton Bowl
Michigan State vs. Baylor (-2.5)
The Cotton Bowl features a very intriguing contest between a stingy Michigan State defense and Baylor's top-ranked offense. The Bears are averaging 48.8 points per game this season, scoring at least 38 points in all but just two games. The Spartans are allowing just 19.9 points per game, giving up 17 points or fewer in eight of 12 contests this season.
While the Spartans have a solid defense, they are no slouches on offense, either. Quarterback Connor Cook, wide receiver Tony Lippett and running back Jeremy Langford are a formidable trio that have propelled the team's offense to score an average of 43.1 points per game this year, ranking seventh in the nation.
Baylor's defense hasn't been as consistent as its offense, but it has allowed 28 points or fewer in nine of its 12 games and allows an average of 24.2 points per contest for the year. Aside from a rough stretch against TCU and West Virginia in which the Bears gave up 58 and 41 points, respectively, it has performed well against better teams, holding Oklahoma to 14 points and Kansas State to 27.
The issue with the Spartans defense has been its tendency to collapse when playing one of the nation's top offenses. The team allowed 46 points to Marcus Mariota and the Oregon Ducks on September 6 and followed it up by allowing 49 points to Ohio State on November 8. That's not a good omen for this impending contest against quarterback Bryce Petty and a Baylor offense that outscored both of those units this season.
When it comes down to it, Baylor's offense has showed up on a more consistent basis than Michigan State's defense in big games this season. That trend gives the Bears the advantage here.
Prediction: Baylor 31, Michigan State 27
All team statistics and rankings courtesy of NCAA.com and current as of December 21.
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