Marshall-Cincinnati Preview: Five Keys to a Herd Victory

When looking at the schedule prior to the 2007 season, Marshall fans circled the Cincinnati game as one of the key swing games that the Herd would need to win in order to go to a bowl game.

After last Saturday's 48-35 loss to New Hampshire, it is now almost a must-win.

A slew of injuries, especially on the defensive side of the ball, have devastated the Thundering Herd on its way to an 0-3 start.  To make matters worse, the hobbled team is staring a three game roadtrip in the face.

Marshall needs to come out of Nippert Stadium Saturday night with a victory in order to avoid its first 0-4 start since 1969.

That task wouldn't have seemed too difficult only a year ago, but Cincinnati has turned things around.  The Bearcats had a strong finish to the 2006 campaign that included a win over then-undefeated Rutgers and an International Bowl victory over Western Michigan. 

Head coach Mark Dantonio left Cincinnati after the season for Michigan State, but Central Michigan's former head man Brian Kelly has kept the ball rolling.  In 2007, the Bearcats have surged to a 3-0 start highlighted by a 34-3 thrashing of a good Oregon State team on national television.

Cincinnati probably won't be quite as fired up for Marshall as it was for Oregon State.  Nonetheless, the Herd will have to play at a very high level to send the sea of greenclad fans to a happy two-and-a-half hour drive home.  Here are the five keys to victory: 

1. Forget the Past

When a team starts out 0-3, the toughest hurdles to overcome are often more psychological than physical.  The longer it takes a team to get that first win, the more it believes it will not win.  Players can start to subconsciously believe that they won't win.

Marshall needs to focus on why it is good enough to beat Cincinnati—not why it was not good enough to beat New Hampshire.

If things go wrong early, it will be very important for the Herd players to avoid the mentality that everything is stacked against them.

2.  Marshall Thun_ering Her_

With that being said, Marshall has some serious physical issues on the defensive side of the ball.  The Herd defense has been shredded over the first three games, giving up 42.3 points, 451.3 yards, and 278.3 rushing yards per game. 

While the pass defense hasn't been spectacular, Marshall's run defense has been more of a weak spot than the vulnerable, flashing part on a video game boss.  Even pass-happy New Hampshire was able to roll up 213 yards on the ground.

Yes, some of the defensive woes can be attributed to injuries.  2006 C-USA defensive player of the year, DE Albert McClellan, went down in the preseason, as did starting cornerback Zearrick Matthews.  It got even worse for the Herd against New Hampshire when starting DT Montel Glasco was likely lost for the season.

But any good coach will tell you that one man (or even two or three) does not make a team.  The Herd needs to do something differently to at least slow down a well-balanced Cincinnati offense.

3.  Maintain the Offensive Urgency

Trailing 24-0 in the 2nd half against New Hampshire, the Marshall offense finally began to look like its old self for the first time in the Mark Snyder era. 

Bernard Morris's 417 yards, 3 TD's, and 0 INT's in just over a half left fans wondering where that had been hiding over the past three seasons.  The senior QB led the Herd to touchdown drives on its first five second half drives, and the sixth was stopped only by the clock.

Perhaps the New Hampshire loss was a blessing in disguise.  The large deficit forced the Herd to throw the ball nearly every play in the 2nd half and unleashed what could potentially be a monster Herd passing attack.  The key is for the Herd to maintain the offensive urgency it had in the 2nd half against UNH.  They need to treat every drive as a must-score. 

Marshall likely won't be able to run the ball Saturday.  If the offense couldn't establish the running game against UNH, it certainly isn't going to run the ball effectively on a beast of a Cincinnati defense that is giving up just 89 yards per game on the ground. 

The coaching staff needs to give Morris an opportunity to see if he can replicate his aerial assault from last week on the Bearcats.  Use the pass to open up the run, not the other way around.

4.  Turnovers

Turnovers have continued to plague Marshall in 2007.  The Herd has lost the ball six times while only taking it away twice.  Cincinnati, on the other hand, has taken the ball away a whopping 17 times over three games, while only turning it over four times. 

Every football fan knows that winning the turnover battle is a huge key to winning the game.  But holding on to the ball is even more imoprtant in this game because Cincinnati seems to thrive off of creating turnovers.

The Bearcats did not even come close to dominating that Oregon State game.  The Beavers outgained Cincy 310-229 in total offensive yards, but their six interceptions thrown turned what should have been a win or close loss into a Bearcat blowout.

If Morris can show the poise that should come with the title of senior quarterback and limit his mistakes, the Herd will be able to score some points and play with the Bearcats.  If the Morris of old returns, it will be an extremely long day.

On the other side of the ball, don't look for Cincinnati to make too many mistakes.  Starting quaterback Ben Mauk will likely sit out with an injury against the Herd, but backup Dustin Grutza filled in nicely last week against Miami (Ohio) throwing for 290 yards, 2 TD's, and 0 INT's.

5.  Special Teams

Another obvious important aspect of the game deserves more attention than usual against Cincinnati.  The Bearcats have already blocked two punts this year—one leading to a touchdown against Oregon State and the other turning into a safety against Miami. 

Kicker/punter Anthony Binswanger has been fairly solid so far in 2007, but he and his blockers will need to make sure all punts get off his foot quicker than usual this week, especially those deep in Marshall territory.

The Prediction:

Believe it or not, Marshall can win this game.  As mentioned before, Cincinnati's win over Oregon State isn't nearly as impressive as the 34-3 score makes it seem.  The Bearcats only average a little over 20,000 for games in Nippert Stadium, so the Thundering Herd won't be intimidated by the atmosphere.  The several thousand fans that make the short drive to Cincinnati will also help the Herd feel more at home.

But this is still a solid Bearcat squad.  Even if they didn't dominate the Beavers in every aspect, simply beating a veteran team that will challenge for the Pac-10 title is impressive enough.  A six-game winning streak is also impressive.

Simply put, there are too many holes in the Marshall run defense to win this game.

The Herd will give an inspired effort with something to prove after the New Hampshire debacle.  Morris will not look as sharp as he did last week, but he will move the ball and put some points on Cincinnati. 

The Herd will hang around for a while until the Bearcats come up with a huge interception or blocked punt that will completely change the momentum. 

Cincinnati 41, Marshall 26