Packers vs. Buccaneers: Complete Week 15 Preview for Green Bay
The horrors of 2008 and 2009 are still fresh in my mind.
When the Green Bay Packers (10-4) travel to Raymond James Stadium for their 1:00 p.m. ET showdown with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12), Green Bay will attempt to win at Tampa for the first time since 2003. For some perspective, the 2003 Buccaneers started Brad Johnson at quarterback, Keenan McCardell and Keyshawn Johnson at wide receiver and Warren Sapp and Anthony “Booger” McFarland at defensive tackle.
The 2008 and 2009 losses at Tampa Bay account for two-thirds of the games in which Aaron Rodgers has thrown three interceptions. His passer rating in those games was 55.9 and 57.6, respectively, the second and third worst of his career in games he has started and finished, trailing only last week’s 34.3 debacle at Buffalo.
But, thankfully, the 2014 Packers are better than the ’08 and ’09 versions, and the 2014 Buccaneers are arguably the worst team in the league.
Week 15 Recap
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It was just one of those games.
Usually, if Aaron Rodgers is slumping, his receiving corps will come up with a big play to pick up the MVP favorite. Conversely, if Jordy Nelson and Co. are dropping balls, Rodgers will put it where even Troy Williamson could make the easy catch.
Unfortunately, neither was the case, and the Bills snapped Green Bay’s five-game winning streak with a 21-13 victory at Ralph Wilson Stadium last Sunday.
"Summarizing Aaron Rodgers' day - 1st career game with 0 TD/multiple INT - career-worst 40.5% completion pct - career-high 28 incompletions
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 14, 2014"
The Packers totaled seven dropped passes, including a potential 94-yard touchdown to Nelson, who simply took his eye off the ball a split-second early. Later in the drive, Rodgers targeted Jarrett Boykin, and the ball ricocheted off his hands and into the arms of Bills safety Bacarri Rambo, who made his second interception of the day.
Eddie Lacy was the only targeted receiver who did not drop a pass.
Green Bay still had a shot at the end of the game—down by six (19-13) with the ball and 1:58 on the clock, 90 yards to go. But backup offensive lineman JC Tretter—in the game for Bryan Bulaga who had exited due to a possible concussion—allowed Mario Williams to come free off the defense’s left side, and he poked the ball out of Rodgers hand and into the end zone. When Eddie Lacy picked it up and attempted to run it out, the officials ruled the play dead, and the game was over for all intents and purposes.
"In #GBvsBUF inside two minutes the ball is dead when recovered by non-fumbling player. It's a safety. Rule goes back to Holy Roller play.
— Dean Blandino (@DeanBlandino) December 14, 2014"
News and Notes
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Feed the Beast
Eddie Lacy has been a monster to defend on Green Bay’s opening possessions, write’s the Journal Sentinel’s Tom Silverstein. In each of the last four games, Silverstein notes, Lacy has tallied at least one run of 10 yards or more within his first three carries.
Surprisingly, with Green Bay’s passing game struggling mightily, Lacy totaled just eight carries in the final three quarters after 71 yards on his first seven.
Oh Captain My Captain
Despite no playoff assurances, Mike McCarthy has named his six playoff captains, writes Green Bay Press-Gazette’s Weston Hodkiewicz. The four returning captains, per Hodkiewicz, are Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Morgan Burnett and Jarrett Bush. The two newcomers? Julius Peppers and Randall Cobb. “Clearly, this is an opportunity to give people more credibility, more opportunities to take the platform,” McCarthy said.
Nowhere to Go but Up
The Packers will improve on special teams, opines Packers.com editor Vic Ketchman. That’s not really a bold statement, though, consider the Packers lead the league in kicks blocked (six) and had a punt returned 75 yards for a touchdown in the loss to Buffalo.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Bryan Bulaga (Concussion) | T | Questionable |
| Davon House (Shoulder) | CB | Out |
| Eddie Lacy (Eye) | RB | Probable |
| T.J. Lang (Ankle) | G | Probable |
| Clay Matthews (Biceps) | LB | Probable |
| Mike Neal (Abdomen) | LB/DE | Probable |
| Nick Perry (Shoulder) | LB | Probable |
| Josh Sitton (Toe) | G | Probable |
House will miss his second game with a shoulder injury suffered in the Week 14 win vs. Atlanta.
It looks like Bulaga should be ready to go by game time, according to the Journal Sentinel's Ty Dunne:
"Bulaga (concussion) sounded optimistic today. Has passed what he needs to pass to this point, adds "I think I have a couple more steps."
— Tyler Dunne (@TyDunne) December 19, 2014"
Lacy made some noise this week when he acknowledged to NFL.com that he is "very blind" and refuses to wear goggles. He'll go with contacts vs. Tampa Bay.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Packers Offensive Line vs. Bucs Defensive Line
This is a matchup that Green Bay will flat-out dominate.
Per Football Outsiders, Tampa Bay’s offensive line ranks 31st in pass protection, and Bucs running backs are tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage at a higher pace than every other team.
"Expect a Publix coupon this week on Bucs offensive line or AKA Swiss Cheese. Got to give McCown time to throw.
— Chris Fischer (@ChrisFischer07) December 14, 2014"
Bucs Wide Receivers vs. Packers Secondary
If there’s a strength to the Tampa Bay offense, it’s the height advantage that wide receivers Mike Evans (6’5”) and Vincent Jackson (6’5”) possess over their defensive counterparts. Unfortunately for the Bucs, rookie tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins (6’6”)—another matchup nightmare—was placed on injured reserve this week. Look for a lot of two-high safety defense employed by the Packers to keep defenders over and under the power forward-sized Bucs wideouts.
Jacquies Smith
It took a few weeks for the 2012 undrafted free agent from Missouri to crack the Bucs’ starting lineup at left defensive end, but it looks like he’s staying there. Smith has racked up 6.5 sacks the past five games and is the fifth-highest rated Bucs defender at Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, their highest-rated defender (by a mile), defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, was placed on injured reserve Monday with a sprained knee suffered in the team’s 19-17 Week 15 loss to Carolina.
Prediction
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Rodgers has never won at Tampa Bay, and he said on his radio show Tuesday that it would mean a lot for him to do so.
With the Bucs better off losing this game to get in position for the No. 1 overall pick come April 2015, this should be a game that the Packers win easily. But this is the NFL, and you don’t win games just by showing up to the stadium and taking the field.
After a poor showing in a Week 3 loss at Detroit, Rodgers and the Packers faced another road test—against bitter division rival Chicago. And Rodgers responded exactly how you’d want your leader to respond; he threw four touchdown passes and completed 78.6 percent of his passes in a 38-17 win and notched a 99.0 QBR, his second-highest figure of the season.
Look for a similar result this week.
Prediction: Packers 38, Bucs 17.
Odds by Odds Shark: Green Bay (-13)
Follow me on Twitter @PeterSowards.
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