Chargers vs. 49ers: Complete Week 16 Preview for San Francisco
The 7-7 San Francisco 49ers will not be returning to the playoffs in 2014. Instead, the 49ers are forced to act the part of a postseason spoiler as they take on the San Diego Chargers in Week 16.
San Francisco wraps up its season with two games at Levi's Stadium. The 49ers host San Diego on a Saturday night matchup—December 20 at 8:25 p.m. ET on CBS.
At 8-6—currently the No. 8 seed in the AFC playoff race—the Chargers will ultimately look for a victory to keep their postseason hopes alive.
The 49ers have much more on their table aside from finishing the season off in strong fashion.
"#49ers have won 7 of their 13 all-time games against the @Chargers. #TBT photos: http://t.co/m1EV1TktVA pic.twitter.com/vr8meo3ZzI
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 18, 2014"
Speculation about head coach Jim Harbaugh's future with the franchise will continue to heat up now that San Francisco is out of the playoff hunt.
Additionally, a slew of injuries beset the 49ers in their Week 15 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
Lastly, San Francisco is faced with the aftermath of releasing defensive end Ray McDonald after his alleged involvement in a sexual assault case earlier this week.
Overcoming these issues will be of utmost concern to the players who take the field on Saturday. Winning in Week 16 and potentially their final contest thereafter will at least put a positive cap on what has otherwise been a disappointing and turbulent year.
49ers' Week 15 Recap
1 of 5San Francisco's playoff prospects came crashing to an end when it lost 17-7 to Seattle in Week 15.
Combined with the Detroit Lions' 16-14 victory over the Minnesota Vikings the same week, the 49ers were mathematically eliminated from postseason contention, which all but ended the team's hopes to make it back to the NFC Championship Game for the third straight year.
Both teams' defenses figured to be prominent factors in the matchup. Yet it was the 49ers offense that got the best of the Seahawks during the first half.
San Francisco held a 7-3 lead entering halftime. Running back Frank Gore broke a 10-yard run to give the 49ers their first and only score of the game.
But Gore's efforts were not enough, and neither were those of a quickly depleting roster.
Gore exited the game with a concussion, and fellow running back Carlos Hyde suffered an ankle and back injury later in the contest. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick—whose struggles in Seattle are already well-documented—could not overcome the setback.
He finished the contest with just 11 completions on 19 attempts and 141 passing yards—good for a quarterback rating of 81.2.
One of the biggest losses came when standout rookie linebacker Chris Borland injured his ankle on the final play of the first half. Borland came back for a single play in the third quarter but missed the remainder of the game.
As a result, Seattle was able to effectively pound the middle of the 49ers defense with running back Marshawn Lynch—a matchup that ultimately made the difference, according to these stats from Chris Biderman of Scout.com:
"Marshawn Lynch had 76 of his 91 yards (and his TD) in the second half, when Chris Borland was out of the game with an ankle injury.
— Chris Biderman (@ChrisBiderman) December 15, 2014"
Then there was the questionable penalty against linebacker Nick Moody for an illegal hit on quarterback Russell Wilson, which ultimately led to Seattle's second touchdown.
"Here's my take on Nick Moody's hit on Russell Wilson in the 4th qtr of #SFvsSEA VIDEO via @kfc https://t.co/V7vriVbgOR
— Mike Pereira (@MikePereira) December 15, 2014"
The NFL's vice president of officiating, Dean Blandino, later stated that it was an incorrect call (h/t Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News).
But it made no difference. The 49ers offense, once again, could not provide the necessary surge to make up the difference in the second half.
San Francisco watched its playoff hopes disappear as a result.
News and Notes
2 of 5Even though the 49ers have been eliminated from the postseason, hot topics and storylines have continued to surround this franchise since San Francisco lost its Week 15 contest in Seattle.
Jim Harbaugh was offered a lucrative contract to coach at the university of Michigan. The 49ers were forced to adjust to the significant injuries suffered the previous week.
And then there was the release of defensive end Ray McDonald after alleged involvement in a sexual assault case earlier this week.
Ray McDonald's Release
San Francisco stood by its 30-year-old defensive end when he was arrested for involvement in a domestic violence case at the beginning of the season. McDonald was never charged in that case, but the developments surrounding his involvement of a sexual assault case were too much for the 49ers' front office to handle.
General manager Trent Baalke elaborated, via 49ers.com, on the decision to release the veteran defensive lineman:
"We as an organization have notified (McDonald) and his agent that he will be terminated, released immediately. While this organization has a strong belief in due process and has demonstrated that over time, Ray has demonstrated a pattern of poor decision-making that has led to multiple distractions for this organization and this football team that can no longer be tolerated.
"
"#49ers GM Trent Baalke on releasing Ray McDonald: "This is a team decision, not a league decision." http://t.co/BhBTG7GsQg
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 17, 2014"
McDonald was having a solid season for the 49ers in 2014, but this second incident prompted the front office to make a clear stance on the veteran's off-the-field behavior.
Backup D-linemen Tony Jerod-Eddie and Tank Carradine are slated to fill in for McDonald in the 49ers' final two games.
Jim Harbaugh to Coach Michigan?
With Jim Harbaugh's future with the 49ers in doubt, the University of Michigan was reported as having offered the head coach a six-year, $49 million offer to take over in 2015, per CBS5 Arizona (h/t Adam Schefter of ESPN).
"Michigan will reportedly offer Jim Harbaugh 6-years, $49 million to become its next head coach. (via @CBS5AZ). pic.twitter.com/AWI4BqvHLD
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 18, 2014"
The pending salary would make Harbaugh the highest-paid college coach, according to Schefter.
San Francisco may try trading the head coach after the season's conclusion. But Harbaugh would have to sign off on the deal, which complicates matters since the head coach likely wouldn't want to damage his new team's future by approving a transaction that involves draft picks.
Injuries and Transactions
Week 15 was harsh to the 49ers. Among the notable losses were running backs Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde, along with linebackers Chris Borland and Ahmad Brooks.
Gore is undergoing the NFL's protocols surrounding concussions. But according to Mindi Bach of CSN Bay Area, Hyde's return in Week 16 would have to be a "miracle."
"#49ers Carlos Hyde says he received good news on his MRI but barring a miracle does not expect to play v #Chargers
— Mindi Bach (@MBachCSN) December 17, 2014"
Borland's injury also hurts significantly. The team leader in tackles could very well not play again this season, according to defensive coordinator Vic Fangio (h/t 49ers.com).
Special teams ace Kassim Osgood was also placed on season-ending injured reserve with a broken hand.
To fill the gaps, San Francisco signed former Arizona Cardinals linebacker Desmond Bishop and former Buffalo Bills running back Phillip Tanner.
Major Changes Ahead?
2014 could very well be the end of an era in San Francisco—as pointed out by Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area.
Big-name players like Gore, wide receiver Michael Crabtree and left guard Mike Iupati are pending free agents. All could easily find themselves on different rosters in 2015.
Defensive end Justin Smith has hinted at retirement, per Maiocco, and it is entirely plausible that the franchise considers moving veterans like Brooks and tight end Vernon Davis—both of whom had disappointing campaigns this year.
Then there is the coaching staff. Harbaugh's future is in doubt, and offensive coordinator Greg Roman is likely witnessing his final two games with the 49ers. What will the rest of the coaching staff look like in 2015?
Granted, there are two games left on San Francisco's schedule. But it's impossible to avoid the discussion given how drastically different this franchise may look a season from now.
Injury Report
3 of 5- Carlos Hyde, RB: Out (ankle/back)
- Chris Borland, LB: Out (ankle)
- Anthony Davis, OT: Questionable (concussion)
- Tony Jerod-Eddie, DE: Questionable (knee)
- Tramaine Brock, CB: Questionable (hamstring)
- Perrish Cox, CB: Questionable (ankle)
- Justin Smith, DE: Questionable (back)
- Ahmad Brooks, LB: Questionable (thumb)
- Frank Gore, RB: Questionable (concussion)
- Quinton Dial, DT: Questionable (knee)
- Raymond Ventrone, S: Questionable (groin)
- Michael Wilhoite, LB: Questionable (hip)
- Michael Crabtree, WR: Questionable (knee)
- Stevie Johnson, WR: Questionable (knee)
- Glenn Dorsey, DT: Questionable (forearm)
- Chris Culliver, CB: Questionable (shoulder)
- Marcus Martin, C: Probable (knee)
- Kyle Nelson, LS/TE: Probable (back)
San Francisco's injury report is substantially larger after its contest against Seattle. The team suffered some considerable injuries to its roster, which forced it to make a number of discussed transactions to plug necessary gaps.
Injuries to Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde impact what the 49ers will be able to do on the ground. Hyde's return in Week 16 is likely not going to happen. Gore's concussion—which can be viewed in the above video—has forced him to undergo the league's policy regarding head injuries.
Gore stated that he is feeling normal, per Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee. But the veteran running back will have to clear the protocols first.
"Frank Gore (concussion) says he feels normal, still must pass league's concussion protocol.
— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) December 17, 2014"
Chris Borland's injury—along with that suffered by linebacker Michael Wilhoite—also impacts the prowess of the 49ers' front seven. Seattle was able to exploit this in Week 15, so will San Diego attempt a similar approach?
A significant cast of players did not participate in practice on Wednesday. The list, provided by the team's official website, included Borland, Wilhoite, Hyde, linebacker Ahmad Brooks, defensive end Justin Smith, cornerback Tramaine Brock and wideouts Stevie Johnson and Michael Crabtree.
But cornerbacks Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox were able to participate in limited fashion along with right tackle Anthony Davis, nose tackle Quinton Dial, defensive end Tony Jerod-Eddie and safety Raymond Ventrone.
Center Marcus Martin was also a full participant.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
4 of 5
The 8-6 Chargers boast a middle-of-the-pack defense and an offense that has scored just 14 points over their last two contests.
Playmaking wide receiver Keenan Allen is out indefinitely with a broken collarbone, which takes away one of quarterback Philip Rivers' favorite passing targets.
Rivers is also dealing with a chest injury but is expecting to play, per the team's official website.
San Diego is desperately trying to secure a playoff spot, and San Francisco stands in its way. Can the banged-up 49ers find a way to pull off a victory?
It will be contingent on the following matchups.
Nick Moody vs. Ryan Mathews/Branden Oliver
Chargers running back Ryan Mathews (ankle) is questionable for Saturday's contest. San Diego's No. 1 back is averaging 4.5 yards per carry on 74 attempts, but he has been limited to just six games on the season.
Backup runner Branden Oliver leads the team in rushing yards (458) but is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry.
As a whole, the Chargers' ground attack ranks No. 31 in the league with just 1,157 yards on the ground.
But it's feasible that San Diego tries to take advantage of a weakened interior defense that has lost the tackling abilities of linebacker Chris Borland. Backup Nick Moody will certainly receive an increased role with Borland out.
Can Moody and the front seven thwart any Chargers attempt to establish a running game?
Aldon Smith vs. King Dunlap
San Diego has given up 28 sacks on the season, which ranks 20th in the league for most allowed. Left tackle King Dunlap is one of the reasons why Rivers has not been pressured that much in 2014.
Facing him will frequently be linebacker Aldon Smith. Smith has registered two sacks since being reinstated in Week 11, but his pressure has been one of the reasons San Francisco's previously lackluster pass rush has surged since his return.
Helping him will be the job of defensive end Justin Smith. Expect San Diego to slide additional blockers to this side of the line, which may potentially open up further lanes for the remaining cast of the San Francisco pass-rushers.
Chris Culliver vs. Malcom Floyd
With Allen out on Saturday, more passing attempts may find their way to fellow Chargers wideout Malcom Floyd.
Floyd is one of four Chargers who can boast of 500 receiving yards in 2014, and he has 777 receiving yards on 45 receptions. His 17.3 yards-per-catch average leads the team. His 6'5", 225-pound frame makes him a difficult challenge for any defensive back.
Frequently covering him will be cornerback Chris Culliver, who was limited in practice this week.
Michael Wilhoite/Antoine Bethea vs. Antonio Gates
The 34-year-old tight end Antonio Gates continues to showcase his talent in 2014. He has 662 receiving yards on 58 receptions and has, once again, emerged as a favorite red-zone target for Rivers and the Chargers offense.
Gates leads San Diego with 10 touchdowns on the year.
The 49ers' tandem of linebacker Michael Wilhoite and safety Antoine Bethea has done a commendable job at limiting playmaking tight ends this season. But with Wilhoite (hip) questionable for the contest, one has to wonder how much added pressure this will put on Bethea.
San Francisco's red-zone defense has been solid, but Gates is a premier threat in this area.
Who gives first?
Mike Iupati vs. Corey Liuget
And you thought the 49ers' pass rush was bad with just 32 sacks.
San Diego ranks No. 29 in this same category with only 20 sacks on the season. Defensive end Corey Liuget leads the team with 3.5.
With left tackle Joe Staley attempting to thwart the exterior pressure from Chargers linebacker Dwight Freeney, the job of stopping Liuget falls upon left guard Mike Iupati.
While San Diego's pass rush has been abysmal in 2014, the 49ers did give up six sacks to the Seahawks a week ago. Seattle still ranks No. 25 in the league after Week 15 added those numbers to their season total of 29.
Frank Gore/Alfonso Smith vs. Chargers' Front Seven
The 49ers love to run the ball behind the left side of their offensive line. If players like Staley and Iupati can do their job effectively, expect San Francisco to attack this side of the line via the ground game.
A big question still surrounds Gore and whether he'll be active on Saturday. But one should at least expect an increase for running back Alfonso Smith.
Smith and possibly Gore will contend with a Chargers run defense that ranks No. 20 in the league in fewest yards allowed (1,520). The 49ers were able to move the ball effectively in the first half against a top-tier Seattle run defense a week ago, so why shift efforts when statistics suggest San Diego cannot stop a ground game?
Anquan Boldin vs. Shareece Wright
Any doubts as to whether wide receiver Anquan Boldin is the 49ers' No. 1 receiver have been put to rest in 2014.
Boldin is closing in on 1,000 receiving yards on the year despite an inept San Francisco passing attack. Covering him will be a primary job for Chargers cornerback Shareece Wright.
"Since Week 6, Anquan Boldin is averaging 9.4 targets, 6.3 catches, 82.3 yards and 0.6 TD (18.13 PPR pts) in 7 non-Seahawks games. $5K on DK.
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) December 18, 2014"
The 34-year-old veteran has played in only three contests versus San Diego and has yet to register a touchdown in any of those matchups.
Wright will be an instrumental piece in ensuring that trend continues. But Wright has a troubled history of being penalized. So far, the 27-year-old defensive back has a total of 10 accepted penalties against him.
Could the physical nature of Boldin increase this number toward the 49ers' favor?
Colin Kaepernick vs. Philip Rivers
While these two quarterbacks will not match up against each other at the same time, their respective playmaking abilities will certainly be called into question upon the game's conclusion.
Colin Kaepernick's ongoing struggles have continued for most of the season. While he didn't turn the ball over in Seattle a week ago—so frequently an occurrence—Kaepernick's inaccuracy was again a problem.
San Diego has just seven interceptions on the year. The lack of ball-hawking playmakers works into Kaepernick's favor, but he will have to showcase his abilities in a more positive manner than what has been witnessed recently.
"#Chargers LB Jarret Johnson on #49ers QB Colin Kaepernick: "He's still got a big arm, he can still get out and run"
— 95.7 The GAME (@957thegame) December 17, 2014"
But Rivers has endured his own share of struggles lately. In back-to-back contests versus the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos, Rivers has posted quarterback ratings of 73.9 and 62.2. His chest injury is another factor that could play into the 49ers' favor.
Which quarterback makes more mistakes? Which quarterback comes up with the biggest play when it is needed most?
This may ultimately decide the outcome.
49ers' X-Factors of the Week: Aaron Lynch and Tank Carradine
San Diego's lackluster ground game likely means an increased reliance upon its aerial attack. In turn, the necessity for San Francisco to rush the passer becomes more paramount.
Enter linebacker Aaron Lynch and defensive end Tank Carradine.
Lynch's promise has already been showcased during his rookie season. He is tied for second on the team with five sacks—one behind Ahmad Brooks.
But Brooks' thumb injury might force him out of the lineup on Saturday, which means an increase in playing time for Lynch.
Carradine's road to a secured role has been more difficult. The second-year pro missed his rookie season with an injury. The setback forced him to be relegated to inactive status for all but five games so far in 2014.
With Ray McDonald's release, Carradine could see a vast increase in snaps on Saturday.
"With Ray McDonald OUT, can Tank Carradine fill the void? Watch an all-new #49ersCentral TONIGHT at 6:30! pic.twitter.com/ME39WMZh9X
— CSN 49ers News (@CSN49ers) December 18, 2014"
Carradine recorded his first two NFL sacks against the Seahawks last week. Will this type of pressure replicate itself against a Chargers team that has allowed 28 on the year?
Prediction
5 of 5
San Diego is desperate to make the playoffs. San Francisco no longer has to worry about this possibility.
Both teams are suffering from some substantial injuries. Home-field advantage would figure to give the 49ers an edge here, but Levi's Stadium has done little more than grant San Francisco a 3-3 season record at home in 2014.
With little more than pride and future contracts on the line, how possible is it for the 49ers to come out and knock off a Chargers team trying to find its way back into January football?
Such a task will be tough considering those injuries.
The likely absence of Carlos Hyde and possible absence of Frank Gore take away from San Francisco's best offensive asset—the ground game. Colin Kaepernick has yet to showcase that he can overcome this attack being negated. A one-dimensional offense does not play into his favor.
Defensively, the 49ers will be without their No. 1 tackling leader, Chris Borland. His absence opens up the possibility for San Diego to move the ball with some effect up the middle of San Francisco's defense. How well can backup defenders fill this void?
Even if the 49ers are able to limit the run, Philip Rivers and his receiving corps remain potent weapons. There have been games in which San Francisco's pass rush made a key difference, but we have seen this aspect all but disappear as well.
Which will be the case on Saturday?
The Chargers figure to not hold back any punches in Week 16. The 49ers are inclined to do the same, but the lack of a postseason reward prompts concerns of whether some players may essentially "take the game off."
This is inexcusable, of course, but it begs questioning.
Combine that possibility with the notable injuries, and San Diego has a slight edge in this matchup. San Francisco's defense is weaker now, and its offense has not been able to make up for anything like this in 2014.
Prediction: 49ers 13, Chargers 20
All statistics, injuries, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to check out his entire archive on 49ers' news, insight and analysis.
Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.
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