Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Breaking Down Green Bay's Game Plan

According to Odds Shark, the Green Bay Packers opened up as 10-point favorites on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That line has jumped up to 11.5 in some instances, good for a tie for the largest of the week with the New York Jets facing the New England Patriots at home.

To say these two teams aren't playing the same game is a bit of an understatement. While the Packers are in the hunt for a first-round bye, the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the Super Bowl—for which they're currently the fourth-best bet to win at the moment—Buccaneers fans have moved on to mock drafts.

Tampa Bay currently holds the would-be first overall selection due to tiebreakers putting the squad ahead of the three other 2-12 teams in the league, according to NFL.com. ESPN's Todd McShay (h/t ESPN.com's Pat Yasinskas) even had the squad taking a quarterback, Marcus Mariota from Oregon, as the No. 1 selection. That's the truest sign of a team in rebuilding mode.

Although the outcome of the game seems set in stone, the outcome still is very impactful. A loss here would potentially keep the Packers out of the playoffs. A win for Tampa Bay could potentially put it out of range to snag that quarterback of the future.

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Offensive Key: Don't Force It

Last week against the Buffalo Bills, Green Bay faced a very tough front line. With Jerry Hughes, Marcell Dareus, Mario Williams and Kyle Williams, there's a potential for the front four of Buffalo to consist of four players with Pro Bowls under their belts by the end of the 2014 season.

Still, despite the on-paper mismatch, the Packers offensive line did a great job of winning at the line of scrimmage in the first quarter. As broken down earlier in the week, the team had five rushes of 12 or more yards in the beginning period.

Then, for whatever reason, Mike McCarthy called off the dogs and only allowed starting running back Eddie Lacy to carry the ball eight times over the course of the subsequent three quarters.

The other aspect of the offense, the air game, didn't exactly warrant the temperance of the ground attack. Overall, the pass-catching targets of Aaron Rodgers had nine drops which would have totaled for at least 163 yards, two touchdowns and saved an interception.

Simply, if the running game is hot, use the running game. If the passing game is hot, which it has been over the course of an MVP-caliber season for Rodgers, then use the passing game. For as satisfied as McCarthy seemed with his play-calling, from an outsider's perspective, he looked like he badly overthought the game.

Against the Buccaneers defense, the team should clearly target the home underdogs through the air. Tampa Bay's run defense has been fairly solid this year, putting it in the top 10 in the league in defensive yards per carry. Its passing game has it ranked 28th in defensive passer rating, though.

According to Football Outsiders' "Defense-adjusted Value Over Average" ranking, the Buccaneers defense would rank 22nd in the league overall. This is how the site describes the single-number value:

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DVOA: The main statistic used on Football Outsiders, DVOA breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality. While it can be used as a measure of total team performance, it differs from other power ratings found throughout the Web because it can be broken down to analyze team effectiveness in any number of ways: down, quarter, rushing vs. receiving, location on field, passes to backs vs. passes to receivers, and so on. DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, although we use the same letters to refer to defensive rankings which are adjusted to take into account the quality of offensive opponents. When not adjusted for opponent, this stat is called VOA.

"

So mathematically the team is about as bad on defense as the advanced statistics say. What hurts the squad, though, is its best defensive player not suiting up for the game. Defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, the former third overall pick and recent signer of a $98 million contract, was placed on injured reserve this week along with 2014 second-round pick Austin Seferian-Jenkins, ending both of their seasons two weeks early.

The Packers, armed with 10 potential Pro Bowlers on offense, according to the NFL's early leaders, should be able to throw all over the season-long bottom-five pass defense the Buccaneers possess. Now with their star defensive lineman out, they could potentially also run down the throat of the squad with Lacy, which they should have done last week against the Bills.

The only thing between offensive dominance and sputtering drives for Green Bay is its play-calling.

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Defensive Key: Avoid the Big Plays

On the defensive side, it's pretty obvious that the Packers squad is going up against a team that could not be compared to the Green Bay offense in production. Tampa Bay's accumulative passer rating over the 2014 season is ranked 27th in the league. Green Bay's is first. On the ground, the Buccaneers are 25th this season in yards per carry, while the Packers are eighth and on a hot streak.

While Tampa Bay's rush offense isn't great, Green Bay too ranks 25th in the category of yards per carry—only defensively. The same cannot be said about its pass defense, though, which is eighth in the league.

So, Tampa Bay's best chance must be to hit the ground running, where it is about even with the Packers' defensive unit, right? In part, that's true. But taking into account the Buccaneers defense, it would seem the offense would need to score often to compete with the production Rodgers should display.

The biggest issue for the Bucs? Their turnovers. In 2014 they are 30th in the league in turnover differential. In stark contrast, Green Bay is first.

Overall, Tampa Bay's offense makes mistakes. It can't get the ball moving efficiently in any aspect of the game, and it gives the other team the ball at a high rate.

This shouldn't be a surprise, though. When looking at the current construction of the offensive personnel, it's a wonder how the team only has $1.5 million in cap space, $6.5 million more than the Packers spend per the NFLPA's daily cap update.

At quarterback, the Bucs are starting Josh McCown, who's thrown for more interceptions than touchdowns this season. That has only been done by him, Blake Bortles, Brian Hoyer, Matt Cassel, Geno Smith and Jake Locker. Of those players who qualified with at least 50 attempts, all but Bortles, the rookie, have been benched at one point.

The team's starting running back, Doug Martin, has been better as of late, but he still lacks the ability to play much on third down. According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, he was reportedly on the trade block midseason (h/t NFL.com's Marc Sessler). And while the receivers unit is solid, the players still need someone to get them the ball.

The offensive line might be the answer to where the money was spent. Anthony Collins, who signed a $30 million contact this offseason, was a healthy scratch this week, according to Greg Auman and Matt Baker of the Tampa Bay Times.

Doug Farrar of Sports Illustrated once said the large deal was made for an "underrated" tackle, but that tackle was just replaced by Demar Dotson, who hadn't played left tackle in his career up to this point.

With Green Bay consistently tinkering with its front seven, it's hard for the Buccaneers to even get a solidified game plan on the squad.

Green Bay linebacker Clay Matthews again has been moved to his natural position as an outside pass-rusher, while A.J. Hawk came off the bench after one game to join in with the starters once more. Even Brad Jones, the once-starting inside 'backer next to Hawk, saw more time against Buffalo as a dime linebacker in passing situations.

The cards of who these teams are have been dealt and played at this point in the season. It seems out of the question that Tampa Bay would come out with an impressive performance, but if it did, it would have be in large part to explosive plays from its talented receivers and sustained success on the ground, limiting the use of its inefficient passing attack.

Final Thoughts

This is a game the Packers need to win and one that the Buccaneers could benefit from in the future with a loss. There's nothing to say that they are actively trying to keep the No. 1 pick, but putting two of their best players on a list that keeps them off the roster for the last two games of the year doesn't exactly help their case either.

On offense, Green Bay should be able to put up much better production on this Tampa Bay defense in comparison to the Buffalo defense it just faced. It would be a very shocking result if Rodgers and Lacy couldn't move the ball on Tampa Bay.

Defensively, the Buccaneers may be able to run the ball, but in the situation they'll likely be in against the Packers' high-flying offense that may not be an option. They'll need to rely on a couple fluke plays by their freak receivers while limiting the loose-with-the-ball McCown touches throughout the game.

If Green Bay can keep up with the Tampa Bay offense, shut down its run game or force a turnover or two, the game might be over at the half.

*All stats courtesy of ESPN.com.