Fantasy Profile: K. Smith, M. Lynch, P. Thomas and R. Bush

Kevin Smith

Kevin Smith had an unbelievable year considering he played for a winless team.  He had 976 yards rushing with 8 TDs.  He added 39 receptions for 286 yards.  Plus he didn’t have more than 16 carries until Week 10.  From Week 10 to Week 17, he averaged 99.4 total yards per game and half a TD.  With Matthew Stafford running the show at some point, the Lions will lean more heavily on Smith with both the run and as a safety net in the passing game.  The Lions also added tight end Brandon Pettigrew, who should help pave the way for a successful 2009 campaign for Kevin Smith.

Kevin Smith should get off to a nice start with New Orleans in Week 1.  If the Vikings’ Williams Wall (Pat and Kevin) lost their appeal, they’ll miss the Week 2 tilt with the Lions, which would bode well for Smith.  He also has some nice matchups in Week 8 against St. Louis, Week 11 against Cleveland, and Week 13 against Cincinnati.  His fantasy playoff opener is against Baltimore, which is tough, but if you have a bye or are able to get by, you’ll be in good shape with matchups against Arizona and San Francisco.

Smith will go in the late second or third round in most fantasy drafts, with a bump in PPR leagues.  I’m expecting him to have 1400 total yards and 8 TDs.

Marshawn Lynch

Well, Marshawn Lynch’s three-game suspension was upheld so you’re looking at 12 games of fantasy production from Beast Mode.  The good news is he’ll be there at the end of the season when it counts the most.  The suspension should drop him in drafts to at least the third round so he could end up being a great value.  There are some major concerns with Lynch though, other than the suspension. 

The offseason addition of Dominic Rhodes means that the Bills will have three capable RBs, along with Fred Jackson.  While Lynch should remain the lead back, clearly the other two will cut into his production.  As long as he gets the ball at the stripe, he should be fine.  That’s where the other problem lies.  The Bills also added Terrell Owens, who puts up TDs in a hurry.  If Lynch is sharing his yardage with Jackson and Rhodes and TDs with T.O., that diminishes his fantasy value dramatically.

Lynch misses one of the Bills’ best matchups in Week 3 when they face New Orleans.  Playing in the AFC East, he has a pretty tough schedule.  They also draw Carolina, Houston, Tennessee, and Jacksonville.  They open the fantasy playoffs with a favorable matchup against Kansas City, followed by New England and Atlanta.

The odds seem to be stacked against Lynch this year.  He’s missing three games, will share yards and TDs, and if he messes up one more time, he’ll be done for the year.  Plus, if Buffalo is successful without him, they may ease him back to the rotation slowly.  He’s a tough one to put numbers to, but I’m guessing he has 1000 total yards and 6 TDs.

Pierre Thomas & Reggie Bush

Pierre Thomas has been a trendy pick in fantasy football leagues this year.  The hype train has finally let Reggie Bush off.  Pierre Thomas is the more complete running back and will take the lion’s share of the carries as well as the goal line duties.  He has bulked up to handle the beating that 100+ additional carries will bring.  He gave a glimpse of what he can do with regular touches last year in Weeks 11-16 when he averaged 112.83 yards (79.16 rushing) on 15.5 carries and 3.2 receptions with 9 TDs.  Reggie will still get his touches, but Pierre is clearly the feature back.

That doesn’t mean that Reggie Bush should be an afterthought.  If he can stay healthy, he is still one of the most explosive players in the league.  He will likely have more receiving yards than rushing yards.  He should have 70+ receptions to lead all running backs.  He will add a punt return for TD if he is given the opportunity, though at this point I would take that duty away for his health’s sake. 

In an offense like the Saints have matchups are almost irrelevant, but I’ll point out his favorable matchups against Detroit (Week 1) and St. Louis (Week 10) and his challenging ones against Philly (Week 2), the Giants (Week 6), Carolina (Week 9), New England (Week 12), and Washington (Week 13).  Their fantasy playoff schedule is Atlanta, Dallas, and Tampa Bay, which is fairly difficult.

Pierre Thomas will likely go in the second or third round in your fantasy draft.  I expect him to be very productive with 1400+ total yards and 10+ TDs.  Meanwhile, Reggie Bush should have around 1100 total yards (400 rushing, 700 receiving) with 8 total TDs.  Bush will be drafted in the third or fourth round, with a significant bump in PPR leagues.

Articles originally published at LestersLegends.com.