Same Old Demons Haunting Philip Rivers Could Derail Chargers' Season

Two months ago, quarterback Philip Rivers of the San Diego Chargers was a legitimate MVP candidate. Since then, Rivers has thrown 12 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in eight games, and the Chargers have dropped from 5-1 to 8-6.

Over the last eight games, some old demons have come back to haunt Rivers and are threatening to derail the Chargers’ season. Rivers is feeling a lot of pressure and forcing too many passes into tight coverage—just as he was before head coach Mike McCoy arrived at the start of 2013.

Make no mistake; Rivers is still a very good quarterback. A few weeks ago, Rivers almost single-handedly willed the Chargers to victory in Baltimore, but that only made it clear how important he is to the team’s success.

What we know by now is that a certain style appears to suit Rivers—at least when his offensive line is struggling and down to its fifth center. The Chargers must run the ball effectively, use short passes and beat teams with superior efficiency. The offensive line just isn’t capable of holding up in pass protection otherwise.

Over the first six games, Rivers was pressured 35.3 percent of the time, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), as the Chargers tested out a vertical pass offense. Opponents have put less pressure on Rivers since Week 6, but that’s a bit deceptive since the Chargers have also adjusted the passing game to focus more on short passes out of necessity.

Split	Pressure %	Sack %	Comp %	INT %
First 6	35.3%	11.7%	50.8%	1.6%
Last 8	33.2%	17.5%	50.6%	4.9%
2014	34.1%	15.0%	50.7%	3.5%
2013	34.3%	15.5%	58.4%	2.2%
2012	38.0%	21.5%	43.5%	4.8%

On Sunday, Rivers completed eight passes to his running backs—a sure sign that the pass protection wasn’t holding up. It is usually a bad sign for an offense dumping it off to running backs. When it happened last season, the Chargers had running back Danny Woodhead, who routinely turned short passes into first downs.

When Rivers struggled under Norv Turner toward the end was when he didn’t have a safety net like running back Darren Sproles to get the ball, and the offense struggled on third down. In Turner’s vertical offense, that meant interceptions and sacks. In McCoy’s offense missing Woodhead, Rivers isn’t taking a lot more sacks, but he is throwing more interceptions and his completion percentage has suffered.

Unfortunately for the Chargers, Rivers is trying to get the ball down the field too often to make up for the stagnant running game. Oftentimes the best play is the one you don’t make, which hasn’t been the case with Rivers over the last two months.

As a percentage of his attempts, Rivers was under pressure just about the same amount last year as this year. He’s also taking about the same amount of sacks, but he’s completing a much smaller percentage of those passes and his interception rate has increased.

Rivers’ INT rate under pressure is actually at Norv-era level the past eight games. His total interception percentage is also just a hair below what it was under Turner in 2012.

Another big contributor to all of this has been the schedule. Three of the Chargers’ first six games were against the Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets who are a combined 7-35 this season. Since then, the Chargers have played just two teams under .500 and one of them was a very good St. Louis Rams team.

Falling behind tough opponents is a recipe for late-game interceptions, which is never good for statistics. To get back on track and try to get into the playoffs, the Chargers need to get back to basics. They need to run the ball and control the clock to give themselves a chance to win late.

Split	Attempts/Game	Yards Per Carry
First 6	31.7	2.9
Last 8	19.9	3.8
2014	24.9	3.3
2013	30.4	4
2012	25.7	3.6

A lot of that is on the offensive line to open up holes, but it's better at that than pass protection. It’ll be hard without running back Ryan Mathews, who wasn’t able to play last Sunday and has missed six games this season.

Mathews has proven his worth this season. The offseason signing of running back Donald Brown to replace Mathews next year flopped, and undrafted free agent Branden Oliver has moved ahead of him on the depth chart.

The bottom line is if the offense keeps forcing Rivers to throw the ball as much as it has behind a porous offensive line, it's asking for trouble. It might work against teams that struggle to rush the passer, but the Chargers should avoid it if at all possible.

The Chargers’ season may depend on a more balanced attack going forward, because the offensive line just isn’t good enough to give Rivers the time he needs on a consistent basis. If it can’t do that, expect Rivers to continue to struggle with damaging interceptions.

Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via Pro-Football-Reference and Pro Football Focus (subscription required).